In the first season of the 14-team FF4W Premier Fantasy Football League in 2018, I drafted Todd Gurley (first round), Tevin Coleman (fifth), rookie Aaron Jones (ninth), and untested second-year pro James Conner (13th). Gurley finished #1 in RB fantasy scoring, Conner finished at #7, Jones at 17th, and Coleman at 26th.
I led my league in scoring during the regular season, largely because of sustained production from my solid collection of RBs, which also included Peyton Barber (the #31 RB in points per game). Only injuries could slow me down.
Conner was knocked out for the entire fantasy playoffs (weeks 14-16). Jones was forced out for the year early in Week 15. Gurley missed Weeks 15 and 16. In the championship game, I was forced to choose between Alfred Blue and Kalen Ballage as my #2 RB. It didn't matter. Each of my remaining healthy RBs scored eight points or less that week. I lost by 15.6 points. A typical outing from any combination of Gurley, Conner, and/or Jones would have meant a title.
We are never safe from injuries, and because starting RBs statistically are the most injury-prone, we're definitely never safe from RB injuries. The Jonathan Taylor news reminds us (not that we need reminding, but . . .) no manager has "enough" good running backs. Taylor is out for 2-3 games after undergoing thumb surgery.
In five outings since ramping up to 10+ carries per game beginning in Week 7, Taylor has averaged 17.0 fantasy points per contest. For perspective, only seven RBs are averaging more than 17.0 points. Taylor has been near-elite since resuming his lead-back role. Obviously, Zack Moss instantly goes from barely startable in deep leagues to a must-start, and those banking on Taylor in the closing weeks of the fantasy regular season must look to Plan B -- or maybe Plan D, depending on who's on your bench and who's on waivers.
Taylor's not the only weekly starting RB to shake up fantasy playoff races. Kenneth Walker missed practice yesterday, putting him at risk of sitting out another week. It's anyone's guess if/when Aaron Jones will return.
And we know -- sadly, we know -- it's highly likely that one or two or more starting RBs will go down in the coming weeks. Based on preseason universal ADPs, the #2 RB (Austin Ekeler) has missed three games. The #3 RB (Saquon Barkley) also has missed three. The #4 RB (Bijan Robinson) essentially missed one. The #5 RB (Nick Chubb) will end up missing 15.
That's a lot of pain, and we need to brace for more of it.
How? Folks approach it differently. As many of you know, I load up on RBs starting in the draft, generally favoring handcuffs over random value plays. My current roster includes D'Andre Swift paired with Kenneth Gainwell and Isiah Pacheco paired with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. If Swift gets hurt, I shouldn't take a terrible hit. If Pacheco gets hurt, it'll stink, but CEH should be able to muster 8+ points per game, plus whatever he can poach near the goal line.
I also recently added Samaje Perine and D'Ernest Johnson while trading for Rico Dowdle. If a starting RB gets hurt, there would be a roughly 9% chance (three backup RBs out of 32 teams) that one of my stashes would be instantly startable.
As always, playing the percentages is the key. I have seven RBs, and it's still probably not enough. After I get through T.J. Hockenson's bye this weekend, I'll drop my replacement TE and pick up an eighth RB, giving me an even higher probability of netting a lottery ticket of things go south for a starter. At the same time, each RB pick-up blocks a potential opponent from starting that RB against me during the fantasy playoffs.
If you have two weekly must-start RBs, great. And hopefully everything will go smoothly the rest of the way. But if you're still clinging to 6+ or even 5+ WRs in a league that starts up to three -- and if you don't need those spares for the two remaining bye weeks -- ask yourself why. Six weeks remain in the NFL regular season. It's statistically improbable that all healthy starting RBs will remain healthy into Week 18. So go get some handcuffs.