Two months ago, a couple days before the start of the season, I walked through research charting the frequency of every 20+, 30+, and 40+ point performance by position since 2002. For example, in each game there's been an 8% chance of a QB cracking 30 points, compared to 12% for RBs and 15% for WRs. TEs have hit 30+ in 2% of games.
The column covered a lot of angles. Most important, I believe, are recent shifting trends. For example, in the decade from 2002 through 2011, only four QBs cracked 40+ points, compared to 66 RBs and 58 WRs. But the next 10 years have witnessed greater QB dominance and diminished RB dominance. Specifically, from 2012 through 2021, 40+ points were achieved by 19 QBs, 37 RBs, and (again) 58 WRs.
So where do things stand at this season's halfway point (136 games in the books, 136 remaining), and what might it tell us about player values?
Looking at 30+ point scorers, this year there have been seven such performances from QBs, nine from RBs, and 20 from WRs. That means, on average, 5% of all contests have featured a 30+ point QB, 7% have featured a 30+ point RB, and 15% have featured a 30+ point WR. Compared to 2002-2022, dominant QB and RB outputs have dwindled, while WRs are holding steady.
Meanwhile, only one QB -- CJ Stroud on Sunday -- has hit 40+ points this year, compared to three RBs and six WRs. This is on par with recent trends that give WRs the highest probability of breakout numbers.
Among 20+ point scorers, WRs are also playing outsized roles compared to other positions. From 2002 to 2022, 36% of all 20+ point scorers were WRs, which is considerably higher than for QBs (24%) and RBs (27%). Bringing up the rear are TEs (7%), DSTs (5%), and kickers (1%). But through Week 9 this season, while WR, TE, DST, and kicker percentages are almost identical to their 2002-2022 percentages (35%, 7%, 4%, and 1%, respectively), RBs are down to 22%, while QBs are up to 30%.
For context, RBs out-paced QBs in 20+ point performances each year from 2002 to 2011. But from 2012 to 2022, QBs had more 20+ point performances than RBs in eight of 11 seasons. This year, quarterbacks are on pace to easily do it again, further reducing running backs' formerly unquestioned fantasy prominence.
I've been trudging along with D'Andre Swift and Isiah Pacheco. Both weekly fantasy starters, but neither are reliable top-12 options, and neither are the reason why I'm still in the playoff hunt. CeeDee Lamb and T.J. Hockenson are outperforming both RBs in points per game. That, and having the QB4 in points per game (Justin Herbert), are the reasons why I'm not wallowing near the cellar.
When we consider how many of the top-scoring RBs were largely overlooked this summer (Raheem Mostert, Zack Moss, Brian Robinson, Kyren Williams, etc.), it's easy to see why picking two upper-tier WRs in the first two rounds can pay big dividends. You're increasing your odds of landing more 20+, 30+, and 40+ point scorers each week -- the huge outputs that can determine whether you win or lose some weeks . . . and by extension, whether you reach the postseason.