Starting to write this with two minutes remaining in the Chargers-Ravens contest. Entered the game down 12.1 points. My opponent, Cory Nedd, has Lamar Jackson. I have Justin Herbert and T.J. Hockenson. Cory started the season 0-4. Now he's 7-4 and in first place in the FF4W Premier Fantasy Football League's A Division ("Winners Circuit"). I'm also 7-4. Needless to say, I didn't feel like writing until now. Too much on the line.
Many of you had a lot on the line yesterday, and some of you are gearing up for a Monday Night Football to remember: a shot at glory -- or maybe simply a shot at keeping your playoff hopes alive.
As always, let's walk through the biggest fantasy impact for each Sunday team, and what it tells us about Week 13 and beyond:
Falcons -- I publicly stated my belief that Bijan Robinson would and/or should be turned loose. He dominated. And the 5-6 Falcons have a pretty favorable remaining schedule, including during the fantasy playoffs. He's getting hot -- and heavily utilized -- at the right time.
Saints -- Late injuries to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed probably made a fourth-quarter comeback that much tougher for the struggling Saints, which have now lost four of their last six outings. While it's too soon to know, it was interesting that Keith Kirkwood and A.T. Perry combined for five targets -- the same number Shaheed earned. The "Shaheed bump" didn't happen with Michael Thomas sidelined.
Bengals -- How good/bad could Ja'Marr Chase be with Jake Browning under center for a full game? It's a troubling situation for managers, and with Tee Higgins expected to return at some point, it'll surely get more troubling.
Steelers -- Pat Freiermuth is a great young tight end, and his performance was pretty fluke-ish, all things considered. I'm more interested in Jaylen Warren losing a fumble and getting outplayed by "backup" Najee Harris. It's always been a somewhat hot-hand situation. Warren moving up the depth chart ladder doesn't necessarily make him more valuable, and yesterday reinforced why.
Titans -- If I win this week (need 13.8 points from Hockenson tonight), it might be because of the Titans DST, which had its second-best output of the season. Not exceptional, but 10 points is good enough, and it's a reminder that Carolina's offense has often been a boon for opposing DSTs. The bigger story, though, is Derrick Henry dominating touches. I commented last week that after Tennessee opted to keep Henry, I thought they'd run him heavily down the stretch to increase his offseason trade value. ("Even at 30 years old, he's still great.") No point pushing him aside for Tajae Spears, or at least not yet.
Panthers -- Rookie Jonathan Mingo led Carolina in targets, while Adam Thielen had only three. Next week will be key to understanding whether Mingo is pushing for the #1 WR role, or if Thielen remains the top guy.
Colts -- Michael Pittman and Josh Downs each had 13 targets. Simply put, Pittman wasn't adversely impacted by Downs' increased role. In a Gardner Minshew-led offense (albeit against a pretty bad secondary), Pittman is locked in.
Buccaneers -- Rachaad White finally looked amazing on the ground. And Chris Godwin had 55+ receiving yards in four of his first five games. But he hasn't had any in the five games since. It's fair to wonder if he's still startable in smaller leagues.
Giants -- The Tommy DeVito to Jalin Hyatt connection is real. Simply incredible what we're seeing from this team after their season was essentially over weeks ago. Trying to understand if DeVito can be a weekly started in Superflex leagues going forward. After their bye, they get the Packers and Saints. As long as Saquon Barkley remains active, DeVito has a chance, especially if/when he encounters negative game scripts versus better offenses.
Patriots -- There is no such thing as NFL players tanking, at least from my perspective. Everyone on the field is trying to prove they deserve to start, or to be a role player, or to secure a contract extension. No one wants to look bad. Rhamondre Stevenson, Zeke Elliott, and Demario Douglas played big. The defense did what they could. The rest was essentially awful -- especially two quarterbacks who probably won't start any games in 2024. If Douglas's head injury keeps him out, then no New England receiver will be worth rostering in the final weeks of the fantasy regular season.
Texans -- Thoughts Houston would win this one and take over first place in the AFC South. They came close. Notably, Dameon Pierce had only six touches, though Devin Singletary had 13. Yesterday probably didn't shift their roles. But Singletary remains a week-to-week 1A RB, rather than a rest-of-season 1A RB.
Jaguars -- I picked up D'Ernest Johnson yesterday morning, and he tied his season-high with eight touches, compared to only one for Tank Bigsby. While Johnson has run poorly this year, if you want to stash a handcuff, it wouldn't hurt to tack on Johnson. Consider that the Jags face Carolina at home in Week 17. There's an outside chance that Jacksonville could lock down the #2 or #3 seed by then. Not likely, but a chance. And if it happens, Johnson could be an instant streamer.
Cardinals -- Trey McBride has averaged 9.2 targets in his last five outings, and his recent upward trajectory could push him into the top 8 TEs by Week 14. Zach Ertz was the starter before getting hurt. No one is talking about him anymore.
Rams -- If the 5-6 Rams making the playoffs with still hobbled Cooper Kupp scuffling, it would be one of the most shocking surprises of 2023. Entering Monday Night Football, Kyren Williams leads all Week 12 fantasy scorers. He was the #2 fantasy RB in Week 2 and was #4 in Week 4. Only CMC is averaging more RB fantasy points per game. He might just be the second-best fantasy RB entering the home stretch.
Broncos -- Break up the Broncos! What an incredible turnaround. And if you're still starting Jerry Jeudy, ask yourself why. He's caught more than five passes only once, and he's clearly running behind Courtland Sutton. Russell Wilson isn't throwing enough to feed more than one receiver per game.
Browns -- Injuries to Amari Cooper and Dorian Thompson-Robinson compounded a rough afternoon. If P.J. Walker has to start in L.A. next weekend against the Rams, then it'll be hard to trust any WR/TE.
Eagles -- Last week it was DeVonta Smith's turn. This week, A.J. Brown earned one more target than Smith, but Smith looked like the alpha. Those of you who held onto the young WR when he was struggling are finally getting what you thought you'd get when you drafted him early.
Bills -- Buffalo probably won't reach the postseason. Maybe that's a controversial statement. Who knows. They're 6-6 with games against the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins on the horizon. If they tie the Broncos in wins/losses, Denver will win the tiebreaker. Essentially, Buffalo likely needs to go 4-1 to have a chance, and there's no guarantee they'll even go 3-2. Fantasy-wise, I publicly threw in the towel on Gabe Davis and was completely wrong. While Khalil Shakir was relevant on the field, Davis was more than relevant in the fantasy world, and that's what counts.
Raiders -- Not many people want to hear about Hunter Renfrow. But . . . if Vegas (5-7) is eliminated in the next 2-3 weeks, we could see more of Renfrow, who had one of the best single-season catch rates in WR history two years ago. He's caught 14 of his last 15 targets. He's the clear-cut #3 WR. If Davante Adams or Jakobi Meyers misses time, Renfrow would be rosterable in most leagues and startable in some.
Chiefs -- In recent days I've wondered aloud how K.C. receivers' disastrous Week 11 would impact Week 12. Would Justin Watson get another chance? Would Skyy Moore play a bigger role? Or might Rashee Rice break out? Out of the chaos, Rice was the biggest winner. There's no putting him back under wraps. We should expect him to remain the #1 the rest of the way.
Chargers -- Austin Ekeler couldn't get much going, and he also lost his sixth fumble since last season. The 4-7 Chargers are on the verge of looking ahead to 2024, when Ekeler probably will be wearing a different uniform. He's looked slower, and his advanced metrics are disappointing. If you have Ekeler, root hard for them to beat New England and Denver these next two weeks, so that the Chargers still have something to play for at the start of the fantasy postseason.
Ravens -- There are a lot of angles to explore, including Zay Flowers stepping up big-time while leading Baltimore in targets. I'd rather focus on Keaton Mitchell, who had more carries than both Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, and who did a heckuva lot more with the opportunities. While Edwards remains terrific, it's concerning that his rushing attempts have dipped the last four games compared to earlier this season.