In recent years, the NFL trade deadline has produced few meaningful fantasy value shifts featuring medium-sized and big-name players. 2022 was a notable exception, as the ripple effect of Christian McCaffrey heading to San Francisco was huge, while guys like T.J. Hockenson, Jeff Wilson, and even Kadarius Toney compelled managers to consider how these moves might impact former and new teammates.
This year's transactions were similar to those of 2021, 2020, 2019, etc. Some teams got better, other teams earned draft capital, and on the whole, the fantasy world looks mostly the same.
Putting DSTs aside (Super Bowl contenders like the Bills, 49ers, and Eagles upgraded on defense), the most significant news probably involved Joshua Dobbs going to Minnesota. The Vikes gave up almost nothing for a QB who was going to become expendable when Kyler Murray returns. As deep-league and Superflex managers know, Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise most weeks.
It didn't look that way in Week 1, when he netted just under one fantasy point on 30 pass attempts. That's hard to do. Somehow, Dobbs did it. But he was the QB4 in Week 2, followed by the QB16, QB6, QB22, QB21, QB13, and QB8. In other words, he was a must-start in three of his past seven games and a serviceable streamer in two others.
Dobbs successfully fed his TEs, with Zach Ertz and Trey McBride combining for a 52-452-2 receiving line near the season's halfway point. Marquise Brown is somehow the overall WR21, while rookie Michael Wilson is the WR47 with five 8+ point performances (again, somewhat serviceable).
While Minnesota might have landed a better pure passer, Dobbs should be able to stabilize the fantasy values of Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn, and T.J. Hockenson -- at least in the short term. All bets are off when Justin Jefferson returns, however. Because Marquise Brown is the probably the best receiver Dobbs has ever thrown to. Scratch that. The 28-year-old journeyman QB made three throws to Antonio Brown five years ago -- one for six yards, onr for minus-three yards, and one that was picked off.
So in the short term, I'm comfortable starting Addison and Hock, while Osborn should be a fairly safe streamer. But when Jefferson's active, the concern is that Dobbs might not be capable of feeding more than two receivers. As we know, Kirk Cousins could feed three. In fantasy, that's obviously a huge disparity, and it could mean the difference between winning and losing some weeks.
Elsewhere, in a potential sign that Detroit's not convinced Jameson Williams can reach the next level this season, the Lions added Donovan Peoples-Jones. It might not seem like much. DPJ is sitting on an 8-97-0 receiving line while scoring fewer fantasy points than . . . Derius Davis. But let's not forget that Peoples-Jones produced a 61-839-3 line last year. Awful QB play and a more crowded receiving corps has rendered him almost useless.
And he's dropped only two passes since 2022, spanning 114 targets. He's a great pair of hands on a team that's accrued the third-most dropped passes. And the young Williams is responsible for two of them. In fact, Williams has four drops on 24 career targets. For a 6-2 franchise with a great shot at claiming their first NFC North title, Williams simply isn't a reliable #2 WR, at least not yet. As pointed out the other day, when Kalif Raymond is getting more targets, that's a problem.
The DPJ trade *probably* means it's finally okay to drop Williams. Of course, this doesn't mean Williams is finished for the year. But the TD-dependent receiver just became even more TD-dependent, and there's no guarantee he'll out-target DPJ and/or Raymond the rest of the way. Heading into waivers, I'd rather roster DPJ for one game to see how he's utilized. Nothing to lose, and in a best-case scenario, he'll once again be a top-45 WR.
Finally, although it became increasingly doubtful that any big-name RBs would get traded, I still thought one team would deal its bellcow. In Tennessee, Tyjae Spears remains purely a lottery ticket / glorified handcuff, while the Giants will continue to run Saquon Barkley into the ground.
Speaking of which, Saquon had no business getting 36 carries last week for a team with virtually no shot at the playoffs, even if they'd held on to win. It's a testament to how great he is, how shallow their backfield is, and how injury-plagued the Giants are at quarterback. Even when Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor returns, it won't get much better for an overworked bellcow with a history of health issues . . . who happens to be playing for a chance at a deservedly big contract.
After Vegas this weekend, the Giants will be @Cowboys, @Commanders, and then home versus the Patriots before their bye week. Road games against the Saints and Eagles loom during the fantasy playoffs. None of this looks promising for Saquon, who's now averaging 25.8 touches per game. Prepare for the possibility that he'll be shut down in December.