Entering last night, Gabriel Davis was averaging 5.0 targets per game, while Khalil Shakir was netting only 1.3. But the opposing Bucs had a hit-or-miss record versus #1 WRs. Drake London compiled a 6-54-0 line the previous weekend. Before that, Amon-Ra St. Brown hit 12-124-1. Before that, Chris Olave had 1-4-0. Before that, A.J. Brown racked up a 9-131-0 line.
On balance, one might have expected a huge day for Stefon Diggs. Instead, with only one active tight end, the Bills elevated Shakir to a prominent top-four pass-catching role. That, and the rapidly ascending Dalton Kincaid, tipped the balance. Shakir led the team with 92 receiving yards, while Davis tied Diggs in catches (nine) and targets (12).
In fact, Diggs had only two looks with four minutes remaining before halftime. I cannot prove this (please speak up if you know for sure), but I don't think this was because Tampa Bay was blanketing Diggs. Containing him? Sure, and more on that in the next paragraph. I believe Buffalo's spread-the-ball approach was deliberate. It led to 17 first-half points against a defense that had yielded only 17.3 points per *game*. Misson accomplished, or so it seemed.
Only when they were protecting a two-touchdown lead did Josh Allen start peppering Diggs with targets. But he never broke loose. His longest reception was for 17 yards -- tied for his "worst" longest play in a game this year.
What I'm curious about is whether this approach is a sign of things to come. When TE Quintin Morris gets healthy, will the Bills essentially push Shakir to the background, as the team returns to more two-TE sets? Was Davis's outburst a fluke? Is Kincaid officially a must-start fantasy tight end, or will he too revert to role-player status behind the alpha Diggs? Because Diggs entered yesterday on pace for an incredible 189 targets. Now he's on pace for . . . 191. Historically, it's an incredible pace. And yet, it was clear last night that the Bills have a lot of underutilized assets at their disposal.
Keep an eye on their Week 12-15 schedule: @Eagles, bye, @Chiefs, Cowboys. A truly challenging stretch for fantasy managers who will need an elite Diggs, and/or a must-start Davis, and/or a must-start Kincaid.
As for the backfield, I predicted 10-14 fantasy points for James Cook, and he ended up with 8.3. A breakout was improbable coming off his 17-touch Sunday performance, and given Buffalo's inexplicable unwillingness to turn him loose. The aged Latavius Murray isn't the answer. I would be shocked if the Bills don't add an RB before the trade deadline. Without sufficient depth, and without sufficient trust in Cook as their bellcow, this doesn't look like a Super Bowl contender.
For Tampa Bay, Rachaad White played his best football of the season. He's now caught all 13 of his targets these past two games for a whopping 135 yards. Until/unless defenses press him near the line, he'll be one of those rare cases of a running back who rarely breaks 4.0 YPC, rarely scores (he has only one on the year), but whose targets keep him entirely relevant.
Through the air, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin scored, bringing smiles of relief for many managers. And notably, rookie Trey Palmer collected six targets. While his fantasy production makes him unrosterable in most leagues, he's cementing his role as the #3 WR and as a top-five target. This obviously matters if Evans or Godwin misses time.
Finally, the winner of the closest-score competition. Wait, we have *three* winners. Incredible. Tim Crandall, Joshua Pugh, Steve Biedenbender all predicted a 24-17 Bills victory. They would have hit it on the nose if Tampa Bay had kicked an extra point near the end instead of "selfishly" going for two. And interestingly, Steve originally predicted the Bills would defeat "rb" 24-17. Based on the rules of the closest-score contest, I would have allowed that. But Steve -- ever the perfectionist -- clarified that he meant "TB." A true champion in every sense of the word.