Entering this season, the Bills were legitimate Super Bowl contenders, while the Tom-Brady-less Buccaneers faced an uphill battle in a slightly improved NFC South. Both teams started 3-1. And both teams are a combined 1-4 since.
Buffalo’s dealt with serious injuries to key defensive playmakers. But they still should have been good enough to blow out the 1-4 Giants. Instead, they won on a goal-line stop on the final play versus a backup QB. And they should have been good enough to defeat the 1-5 Patriots. Instead, they squandered a late lead versus a QB on the verge of getting benched.
This summer I wrote about the fascinating dilemma confronting fantasy managers re: Stefon Diggs. Essentially, he was deserving of his elite WR status. At the same time, he had made his frustrations known during last season’s playoff loss, and then during the offseason. As long as Buffalo still looked like a contender, everything would be fine. But I warned that if Buffalo struggled, then those frustrations could rise to the surface again.
The 4-3 Bills’ upcoming schedule includes three road games against the Bengals, Eagles, and Chiefs. More road games against the Chargers and Dolphins follow. And there are tough road matchups against the Jets, Cowboys, and Pats.
It could be argued that aside from tonight’s contest, Buffalo’s only seemingly “soft” opponent will be the Broncos in Week 10. In other words, to reach the playoffs – yes, simply to *reach* the playoffs -- Buffalo needs to step up their play on both sides of the ball. Doable tonight? Absolutely. I expect the Bills to step up. They have to.
The problem is that the Bucs aren’t pushovers. Their D has been surprisingly stout, masking a sub-par offense that remains somewhere between disjointed and adequate.
And speaking of that offense, Rachaad White is one of those “How is he still starting” running backs. Maybe that’s not fair. But this isn’t the NFL of 20 years ago, when someone like Eddie George -- no doubt, a great running back in his day -- could average 3.7 YPC in his age-27 campaign, 3.0 YPC the following season, and 3.4 YPC the season after that . . . and then remain the full-time bellcow at age 30 while netting 3.3 YPC.
Today’s NFL demands around 3.8 YPC or higher for young backs to prove themselves. Most veterans might get away with that for one season, but not much more. And White isn’t a typical second-year pro. He’ll turn 25 in January. He’s averaging 3.2 YPC after earning only 3.7 as a rookie. Why is he still starting? He’s dominated through the air, catching 50-of-58 targets last year and 22-of-23 this year.
But more than that, I believe, is the fact that none of his teammates are ready to take over. Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Sean Tucker have flopped when given opportunities. Interestingly, Chase Edmonds just came off injured reserve. Don’t be surprised if he’s the Bucs’ #2 RB tonight. If you’re rostering White, strongly consider trading him based on fantasy numbers that suggest his job is safer than I think it actually is.
Predicting a 36-13 Bills victory. Leave your prediction below, and the winner once again will be serenaded with virtual accolades -- not the best kind of accolades, but certainly not the worst.