This week, there are no teams on a bye. Many of you probably already know this, but it's worth clarifying. This means we have a little more roster flexibility than we normally would have midseason. And while a bunch of starting QBs are out or questionable, *most* other players are fairly healthy.
Of course, our good news is also our bad news, because our opponents have the same benefits. This is why I picked up Jauan Jennings -- not to start him, but to keep my opponent from (potentially) adding and starting him. If you have enough bench flexibility to block your opponent where s/he is weakest, go for it.
As always, here's the most important fantasy storyline I'm tracking for each team playing tomorrow and Monday:
Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Rams -- Tony Pollard's average yards-after-first-contact (1.6) and broken-tackle rate (one per 48 carries) are by far the worst marks of his career. If he falters today, I strongly believe Dallas either will give Rico Dowdle more run, or will go get another RB before the trade deadline, lowering Pollard's ceiling. For the Rams, it's once again Darrell Henderson versus Royce Freeman. Like last week, my money's on Henderson.
Packers (+1.5) vs. Vikings -- Taking Green Bay to win outright, which might seem strange. But they haven't played at home in a month, and Aaron Jones *seems* to be working his way back to full strength. A healthy Jones could set the tone for a team in a must-win situation. He might be the biggest on-the-field and fantasy wild card of the week. For Minnesota, my Wednesday thoughts on Jordan Addison carry over to tomorrow. Will he be the clear-cut alpha receiver?
Titans (+2.5) vs. Falcons -- Taking the Titans to win on account of their defense, which matches up well against Atlanta. If Tennessee loses, I think Derrick Henry is 100% gone by Wednesday. If they win, then maybe there's a 65% chance instead. Pay close attention to his usage. If this franchise intends to trade him, then I'd expect him to get only a few touches, ceding a majority to Tyjae Spears. And for Atlanta, what's going on with Bijan Robinson? Was it just a headache, or something more? Who knows. But if he doesn't get huge touches, there will be more speculation after Sunday.
Colts (+1) vs. Saints -- I've been trying to trade Gardner Minshew this past week. New Orleans poses a pretty good test for the backup QB. If he once again collects 20-24 fantasy points or more, his value could skyrocket in deeper leagues. And if he tanks, then my opponents were right to ignore my offers. For New Orleans, Chris Olave has scored only once this year, thanks in part to the barely middling Derek Carr tossing only six TDs in seven games. Yet another example of a potential top-10 WR who's only as productive as his QB is effective.
Dolphins (-9.5) vs. Patriots -- I want to believe New England will keep this close. But with Jalen Ramsey potentially returning, the already "great" Miami squad will be that much tougher. Keep an eye on Jeff Wilson's usage in a backfield that could change like a kaleidoscope. For New England, I thought about picking up Demario Douglas on Wednesday, but don't have roster room. There's a decent chance he'll lead this team in targets and receiving yards the rest of the way.
Jaguars (-2.5) at Steelers -- The surprising 4-2 Steelers finally got touchdowns from their two-headed backfield last weekend. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren remain fringe streamers. But in a week with no teams on bye, can either be trusted? And for Jacksonville, again, it's all about Calvin Ridley. He's not exactly the Jameson Williams of the AFC. I mean, Ridley has proven he can still get it done. But even with Zay Jones sidelined, he's been too erratic for managers to start with semi-confidence.
Commanders (+7) vs. Eagles -- Predicting a narrow Philly victory. As always, when will it be DeVonta Smith's turn? Asking this not because I drafted Smith in the second round, but because he's scored only 0.3 more points than Curtis Samuel and, more pointedly, 5.1 less than Kendrick Bourne. Remember, healthy talent usually wins in the end. As for Washington, again, keep watching Jahan Dotson. He looked good last week and still has a decent shot at posting top-40 numbers the rest of the season.
Texans (-3.5) at Panthers -- If Houston wins, they'll be 4-3 -- a minor miracle, though not entirely surprising. I'm watching their backfield, with Dameon Pierce averaging only 2.9 YPC and losing touches to Devin Singletary. Who's the better fantasy play? And for the winless Panthers, Miles Sanders is returning to a backfield that's no longer his. How will touches be divided between him and Chuba Hubbard?
Browns (+3.5) at Seahawks -- Taking Seattle to win by a field goal or less. All eyes should be on Jerome Ford, who's currently questionable -- and not the good kind of questionable. Even if he plays, we should expect Kareem Hunt to battle for a majority of RB touches. Momentum matters in backfields, especially when preseason backups are competing for dominance. And Seattle went from not having D.K. Metcalf in Week 7 to (possibly) not having Tyler Lockett in Week 8. Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be the big winner if Lockett sits, and even if he doesn't, JSN could push his way to a consistently prominent role, which would mean trouble for managers rostering Metcalf or Lockett.
Chiefs (-7) at Broncos -- Denver's on the verge of throwing in the towel -- or so it seems. If they want to unload Jerry Jeudy, I believe they'll either make him a decoy or pepper him with looks. The former should keep him healthy for a trade. The latter could increase his value. He's truly boom-bust this weekend. And for K.C., is Rashee Rice officially the #1 WR? He's getting closer. . . .
Cardinals (+9.5) vs. Ravens -- While Baltimore looked invincible last weekend, Arizona has done some damage against seemingly invincible teams. I'm watching that Arizona backfield to see if Emari Demercado can build on his Week 7 momentum. And the Ravens' backfield is also fascinating, with Gus Edwards -- who rarely catches passes -- producing a huge catch-and-run last weekend. Will Lamar Jackson give him more looks, or is Justice Hill the "safer" PPR play?
49ers (-4.5) vs. Bengals -- Such a confusing situation. Brock Purdy is questionable. If Sam Darnold's forced to start, I'd expect even *more* work for CMC than usual. Once again, the key question is whether Elijah Mitchell out-snaps and/or out-produces Jordan Mason. And for Cincy, I keep waiting for a Tee Higgins breakout. He seems healthy. Is this the week, or will his value sink further?
Chargers (-8.5) vs. Bears -- Joshua Palmer is questionable. Quentin Johnston *finally* might get his chance. If you're rostering Palmer, then Johnston is a must-add. Otherwise, treat Johnston for what he is: a wait-and-see prospect who will get his opportunity at some point. And for Chicago, Roschon Johnson should be back out there. What does that mean for D'Onta Foreman? I believe it's Foreman's backfield unless he falls flat.
Lions (-8.5) vs. Raiders -- Jahmyr Gibbs could give managers rostering David Montgomery even more heartburn. Vegas hasn't been awful against the run, but they're certainly sub-par. A big Gibbs game could make it difficult to call him anything less than the 1A option, even when Montgomery returns. And for the Raiders, it's still all about Josh Jacobs, who's basically played like Dameon Pierce with a lot more receptions. If Detroit takes a big early lead, watch for Zamir White sightings.