Two years ago, David Montgomery was the clear-cut bellcow in Chicago. The team had just drafted Khalil Herbert in the sixth round. For perspective, the most productive sixth-round RBs of the past 10 drafts were/are Alfred Blue and Boston Scott. Herbert was widely viewed as a fringe fantasy prospect. And sure enough, he started the season buried on the depth chart behind 29-year-old backup Damien Williams.
Then Montgomery got hurt in Week 4, and he landed on injured reserve. Herbert earned his first NFL touches that opening week, played alongside Williams in Week 5, and -- with Williams getting hurt -- took over the backfield in Week 6.
When Montgomery returned to the starting job when activated, he was now losing a handful of touches to Herbert, who leapfrogged Williams to become Montgomery's handcuff. And then last year, Herbert became a true glorified handcuff, capping Montgomery's ceiling. Ironically, this year's injury to Herbert likely will have a similar impact in Chicago. But that's a story for another day.
This year in Detroit, Montgomery played inspired football in the first four weeks, collecting 23.3 touches per game, which he converted into six touchdowns. Those who drafted first-round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs were agonizing. Some analysts took to X/Twitter to complain, with words along the lines of "Why did the Lions sink so much draft capital into a guy they won't turn loose?"
Meanwhile, I tried to trade for Gibbs. Why? Because as I keep saying, healthy talent usually wins in the end. Gibbs is a special young talent. He operates in a near-elite scoring offense. Montgomery's 395-touch pace almost certainly would dip as the rookie acclimated more to the NFL.
Candidly, my opponent this week has Gibbs. My interest in trading for him when Montgomery was healthy was (a) to buy low, and (b) to head off the possibility of facing a high-volume Gibbs against a beatable Raiders defense. Sometimes the best-laid strategies fall short, and then all we can do is brace ourselves for potential disappointment. Sometimes when we're two steps ahead, our opponents are three steps ahead.
Gibbs isn't Khalil Herbert. Gibbs was drafted to be a bellcow as soon as Year 1. He was a short-term insurance policy for Montgomery, with the idea that their roles eventually would reverse -- with Montgomery serving as an insurance policy for the more electric Gibbs.
Last night marked a dramatic and expected shift in Detroit's backfield. There's no conceivable way that Montgomery will take back the starting job. A true #1 RB can often withstand an IR stint. But a #1 trying to fend off a future #1 doesn't have much of a chance. It doesn't help that Montgomery has always been a middling-efficient runner, netting only 4.0 yards per carry for his career. His fantasy value is tied largely to usage, including near the goal line. In one play, someone like Derrick Henry or Breece Hall can pick up 12+ points. Montgomery needs a lot of touches.
If you have Gibbs, congratulations. And by the way, this doesn't mean Montgomery will ride the bench the rest of the year. But I believe this is why Detroit signed him and drafted Gibbs. They're built for a playoff run, and these days, most Super Bowl contenders (there are exceptions, but . . .) need two starter-caliber backs. Gibbs picked up 31 touches last night. Perhaps he'll average 16-18 when Montgomery's active, and the veteran will earn 10-12.
In other words, I don't expect Gibbs to be elite or even near-elite. But he assuredly will outproduce Montgomery when both are healthy. It's great news for the Lions, rough news for those rostering Montgomery, and of course great news for those who retained Gibbs, who now have a sure-fire weekly starter after weeks of uncertainty.
Elsewhere, Kalif Raymond had more targets than Jameson Williams. And for Vegas, only Josh Jacobs came to play. Of course, I'm exaggerating. Everyone comes to play. They're professionals. But wow, what an awful offensive showing for the only NFL team not to score more than 21 points this season. Jimmy G. looks like a bottom-10 starting QB, and Davante Adams had his third clunker in his last four games. It didn't have to be that way. Adams was open for a deep TD pass -- something most other quarterbacks likely would have seen.
If you're rostering Adams, clearly you're hoping he gets traded by tomorrow. Doesn't matter where. When one of the best WRs in the game isn't a factor in three out of four weeks, it's not a good sign.