With six teams on a bye, this week was already shaping up as tough for many fantasy managers, putting more pressure on some of you to start guys tonight. But with Trevor Lawrence questionable, the situation is even tougher.
As of 5:30am this morning, the Jags' franchise QB appears to be a game-time decision. The good news is that we're all in the same boat. If he's active, then guys like Christian Kirk and Evan Engram *appear* to be safe bets for 9+ points, while Calvin Ridley brings enough boom to be startable in most leagues.
And if Lawrence sits, then all bets are off. C.J. Beathard hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since 2020. He's started only two games since November 2018. He'd be a huge unknown on the road against one of the league's top pass D's.
How good is the Saints' defense? Well, they're yielding the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and are tied for #2 with eight interceptions. They've also surrendered only 3.9 yards per carry . . . and only one rushing score. Some of this is situational. They've benefited from playing a pretty soft schedule to open the year, including the Panthers and Patriots. But that shouldn't detract completely from their accomplishments. And their worst game (giving up 26 points to the Bucs) should include an asterisk for their defense, because their offense coughed up the ball at their own six-yard line, and then later at their own 19. That led to 10 Tampa Bay points. A great unit can do only so much.
Exacerbating things for fantasy managers is the heavy workload of Travis Etienne. He had 21 touches on Sunday, which we know is a major yellow flag for Thursday games, based on historical data going back a decade. In fact, he leads the league with 113 rushing attempts. He's on pace for 380 touches, plus whatever happens if they reach the playoffs.
So I'll put my money where my spreadsheet is: Etienne is a massive risk tonight. If you're deep at RB, I would bench him. You heard that right. Whether or not Lawrence starts, I'd expect to see more Tank Bigsby and even D'Ernest Johnson. If the Saints had a soft run D, I might think differently. But they've given up the second-fewest RB fantasy points per game (14.0). I'm putting Etienne's over/under at 11.5 points. If you'd be happy with 11.5, go for it. If you need a bigger boom -- and if you have a decent replacement -- then wait until Sunday. Crazy? Maybe. But I'm standing by the data.
For New Orleans, Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are obvious starts. Beyond that, it's a crapshoot. Derek Carr will be without both of his starting tackles. He's already looked shaky while taking a relatively high 17 sacks, putting him on pace for his highest total in five years. Jacksonville has been adequate against the pass, though context is key: they were "solid" against Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Carr is merely a middling NFL starting QB. I expect Jacksonville to largely contain him if Lawrence starts. If Beathard starts? Well, then eventually I believe New Orleans will wear them down.
Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed are only flyers, largely because of bye-week challenges many of us are facing. I had expected Thomas to be better this year. He's the WR47 in points per game. A healthy Thomas *should* be better going forward, making him a little-to-lose buy-low option. Keep in mind, he leads the Saints in red-zone targets. As long as Carr keeps looking his way, Thomas should eventually hit the top 35.
Oh, and a final word on Kamara. Yes, he had 26 touches on Sunday, making him an even bigger yellow flag than Etienne. However, he has a PPR advantage, and I think that makes him a more compelling start. But I'd cap him at around 15 points tonight: startable, but with low breakout potential.
Predicting the final score this early in the morning, not knowing Lawrence's status, seems ludicrous. But let's go for it. I've got the Saints winning 23-13. Leave your prediction below. The winner gets a no-expense-paid trip to wherever you want to go. And if you want to complain to me about my Etienne take, please pour it on.
Meanwhile, New Orleans has one of the league's top pass D's
status,
Meanwhile, K.C. is rolling once again with Isiah Pacheco, with Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire filling in the gaps. In a blowout win, CEH could get some fantasy love. But clearly the only seemingly safe bet is Pacheco. Remember this summer when I poo-poo'd McKinnon? It was because I didn't thi