Nine days ago, the Vikings were 1-4, playing on the road versus Justin Fields and the Bears. Chicago was coming off a 40-20 crushing of Washington, with Fields throwing for four scores and D.J. Moore catching three of them (while collecting 230 receiving yards). Then Fields exited early in the third quarter, rookie Tyson Bagent committed a fumble-six on only his third NFL snap, and Minnesota eked out the win.
Entering that context, already down Justin Jefferson, the Vikes looked like they'd finish last in the NFC North. Presumably, they'd be sellers at the trade deadline. Also presumably, they'd be in no hurry to bring back Jefferson, whose 4-6 week recovery time easily could be pushed to 6-8, or longer if that's what it took to ensure this franchise would be fully equipped for another run in 2024.
Then there's San Francisco, which dismantled the Cowboys 42-10 two weeks ago to remain firmly undefeated. In Week 6, they faced backup QB P.J. Walker and the Browns. Walker objectively has been well below sub-par as an NFL spot-starter. Surely the Niners' elite D would take care of business.
But Cleveland's defense stepped up, and more critically, Christian McCaffrey got hurt in the third quarter while Deebo Samuel mustered only nine snaps. Brock Purdy suffered his first regular-season loss. The seemingly unstoppable 49ers were human after all.
The fantasy implications of these last nine days are huge. Two teams going in opposite directions, and now converging. San Francisco is clinging to first place in the NFC West, while the Vikes' next seven games feature only one team with a winning record. Sure, that could change. But Minnesota's recent fortunes -- due to stepped-up play on both sides of the ball, as well as a little luck facing opponents dealing with notable injuries -- have a direct impact on Jefferson's November playability. They also have a direct impact on whether they go all in and acquire one more RB before the trade deadline.
Last year, it could be argued that Minnesota was worse than their record, having gone 11-0 in games decided by one score. And early this year, Minnesota arguably was *better* than their record, having gone 0-3 in games decided by one score. Now they're 3-4, with each game decided by eight points or less. Their season truly could go either way. But a win next week against the struggling Packers would (I believe) almost assuredly necessitate a big acquisition.
If you're rostering Alexander Mattison, or even Cam Akers, this isn't good news. Neither guy looks like a franchise-elevating RB. Mattison couldn't punch it into the end zone last night, leaving this team as the only one in the league without a rushing score. That's not sustainable for a squad with a legitimate shot at the postseason. If you have one or both, I'd sell high immediately. As in, when you read the word "immediately," that was the time to stop reading and start researching. I'd trade Mattison for Tyjae Spears straight-up. If you have both, I'd package both for Kareem Hunt, who should get you one or two great games while Jerome Ford's out.
In other words, I'm betting against Mattison and Akers being fantasy-relevant beginning in November. It's a big bet, and it's based on both their muted play, as well as Minnesota's recent victories, which have put them on an entirely different trajectory.
For San Francisco, things don't exactly look bleak. But they do look troubling. They'll face the getting-healthier Bengals next week, and then travel to face the Jags. Deebo is expected to be out for at least a couple more weeks (including their Week 9 bye), and CMC -- despite setting the NFL record for most consecutive games with a touchdown (16) -- still doesn't look 100%. And despite getting only 18 touches last night, he's still on pace for 367, which would translate to 400+ if they make a deep playoff run.
The 49ers traded for him last year to win a title, not to set records. But two straight losses and Deebo's injury are putting the squeeze on a franchise that only nine days ago looked like a Super Bowl frontrunner. Yes, they're still a strong contender. But at some point (I believe), CMC will hit another wall. He's averaging only 3.1 yards per carry in his last three games. Whether that's injury-related or wall-related, it would be nutty to think everything's fine.
Because they've lost two straight, the 49ers need him more than ever, and yet he can do only so much. If you have him but don't have Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason, stop reading and start figuring out how you can secure both backups.
Finally, it's worth considering two perspectives on Purdy, both of which (I believe) hold true. The first is that he's a very good NFL quarterback. Yes, it helps that he has the best pass-catching RB in the game, along with an above-average receiving corps. But other QBs have strong playmakers and haven't achieved what he has. So yes, he's earned his success.
The other perspective is that he hasn't been battle-tested like most young quarterbacks. Thanks to a terrific defense (along with those previously mentioned playmakers), the 49ers generally win. Heading into last night, Purdy had thrown only 14 passes while trailing. He completed less than 43% of them for 94 scoreless yards. He was better last year when trailing, but still statistically worse across all key passing metrics compared to when tied or leading.
Is Purdy a glorified game manager who has benefited thanks to an extraordinary number of positive game scripts? Absolutely. If the Niners continue to battle through games -- at times trailing -- will Purdy rise to the occasion?
Fantasy-wise, he's still the QB9. But managers should be at least marginally concerned about whether he's a weekly fantasy starter. Last night he did fine, but only "fine," against a defense that was among the league leaders in most-fantasy-QB-points surrendered. Purdy fell well short of expectations. While it's too soon to know if this is an issue, it's at least something to monitor.