Fantasy outputs rely heavily on offensive conversions: third downs and red-zone TDs. The former keeps drives alive -- often leading to more points -- and the latter can transform a middling night into a great one.
Last year, the Chiefs had the league's second-highest third-down conversion rate and the second-highest red-zone conversion rate. This year, they're still #2 on third downs, but have dropped nearly 17 percentage points in the red zone, falling to 17th place.
It's a great combination if you have Harrison Butker. In fact, Jake Elliott is on a record fantasy scoring pace for kickers *because* (a) he's great, and (b) the Eagles are #3 on third downs and #27 in the red zone. The Cowboys are #5 and #28, respectively. What does that lead to? Brandon Aubrey tied for #2 in fantasy-kicker scoring . . . while the rest of Dallas's offense underwhelms compared to preseason expectations.
This helps explain why the normally blistering Patrick Mahomes is merely "great" this year. He's on pace for his fewest passing TDs. Yes, the passing game isn't where it needs to be. But a dramatic drop in red-zone efficiency has made a huge difference. Consider the impact even four more passing touchdowns would have had on fantasy scoring for him and some combination of his pass-catchers.
So this is clearly something to monitor going forward. Surely head coach Andy Reid has been working with his team on this, and surely they'll keep working on it. Kansas City's defense stepped up against a 1-4 team in free-fall. It won't get any easier going forward.
Yesterday I wrote that Mahomes and Travis Kelce would get their points (no big surprise), and also that Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney, and Justin Watson would be terrific double-digit flyers. I advised managers to stream one of them "in that order." Rice finished with 12.2 points on four targets, while Toney once again led all Chiefs WRs in targets while collecting 9.4 points. And where was Watson? He was targeted once on a deep ball early in the fourth quarter, then went down with what looked like a serious injury.
This wideout corps might be settling into a pattern, with Rice and Toney remaining weekly flyers, while Skyy Moore continues to slide after a Week 2 breakout. Last season, Mahomes threw three of his 12 interceptions while targeting Moore, which was quite a feat with Moore accounting for only 33 targets. Just watched the video of last night's interception, and one could argue that Mahomes was once again going for Moore, though the throw was off. So discounting that one, Moore has accounted for one Mahomes pick on 20 targets. It could at least partially explain why Toney and Rice have, on average, seen more looks lately.
Meanwhile, yesterday I put out feelers for trading away Isiah Pacheco. Apparently -- at least in my league -- his market value was subdued. But last night certainly helped his case, as he handled a hefty 22 touches while reeling in all six of his targets. We all know receptions can be a make-or-break factor in whether an RB is worth starting. Pacheco's on pace for 54 catches, many of which would have gone to Jerick McKinnon last season. If you can get top-16 value for Pacheco, it's a solid time to sell high if you need more pop. Otherwise, he should be a safe #2 fantasy RB most weeks.
As for the Broncos, buckle up these next couple of weeks. All three of their RBs canceled each other out, with Jaleel McLaughlin leading the way with 6.2 points. Javonte Williams ran great, but somehow didn't get any targets. Again, and especially in crowded backfields, that's the difference between startability and benchability. I believe Williams is a prime trade candidate before the deadline, and that the team will continue to feature him on the ground in the hopes of elevating his value. In other words, McLaughlin's time will come.
Through the air, before the game I half-expected Denver to bench Russell Wilson, but also half-expected the kind of effort that would keep him afloat. That soon devolved into "fully expected to be benched." As is generally the case with quarterbacks, it's not all his fault. But if Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy had had a top-12 passing QB in any of their NFL seasons, we might appreciate how good they could be. Instead, they're one of the most notable "what-if" WR tandems in years, and things can only get better if they're sent to a WR-needy team (Chiefs, anyone?).
In the Broncos' first three games, Wilson threw it 104 times. In the three games since, he's thrown it only 81 times. This appears to be their win strategy: take the game out of Wilson's hands as much as possible, and try to win on the ground or with timely defense. The problem is that they're last in the league in third-down conversions, while "timely defense" only worked against the previously dysfunctional Bears offense.
If you're rostering Broncos, the best thing -- the only sensible thing -- to do is wait. Wait until October 31st. Wait until this franchise makes changes.
As for the closest-score prediction, some of you took the leap and picked Denver to win. Kudos to you for your courage. Others, like me, predicted a K.C. blowout win. But Wayne Landru takes the prize, predicting a narrower 23-10 victory. Congratulations Wayne, and good luck defending your title next week.