How often does a prime-time game feature six potentially fantasy-viable RBs? Utter chaos.
Tonight's contest is bizarre on many levels. The Chiefs have beaten the Broncos 15 consecutive times. I know. Utter chaos.
That streak broke the Broncos' earlier streak of seven straight head-to-head victories, beginning in Peyton Manning's first season in Denver in 2012 . . . and ending in the final regular-season start of his career . . . which happened to be the worst performance of his career, when he connected on only five of 20 throws for 35 yards while tossing four interceptions. Yes, utter chaos.
This rivalry hasn't really been a rivalry for some time. And tonight probably won't alter that trajectory. The Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites. That's probably not high enough. Denver's defense has been historically bad, surrendering a league-leading 5.9 yards per carry. Checked the archives and eventually stopped trying to find a team that's done worse.
They're also giving up the second-most passing yards and the most passing TDs, as well as an ungodly 77.3% completion percentage. There's already buzz about changes coming. The Broncos went all in on Peyton 11 years ago and walked away with a ring after three years. Then they went much more "all in" on Russell Wilson, and the most they'll get is probably some high draft picks -- most of which they had to give to Seattle in order to land Wilson.
It's utter . . . it's a mess. And flying to K.C. to take on the defending champions couldn't come at a worse time.
In fantasy, are any Broncos reliable starters tonight? With the trade deadline looming, Marvin Mims might be the team's highest-upside WR for the rest of the season. But for Week 6, he's beyond risky. So is Courtland Sutton. So is Jerry Jeudy. Last weekend, Samaje Perine and Adam Trautman combined for 51% of Wilson's passing yards. This is what fantasy nightmares of made of: tertiary options becoming the top options.
And that brings us to Denver's backfield. If Jaleel McLaughlin had it to himself, of course he'd be a must-start, even against a defense giving up a respectable 4.3 YPC and only one rushing score. But the rookie doesn't have the luxury of guaranteed touches. As of late Wednesday night, Javonte Williams looked poised to return, while the 28-year-old Perine is coming off his best showing of the year.
Realistically, I expect a hot-hand situation led by McLaughlin and Williams on the ground, and Perine mixing in as needed. In other words, anything can happen. I'm steering clear of all three.
Meanwhile, K.C. is rolling once again with Isiah Pacheco, with Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire filling in the gaps. In a blowout win, CEH could get some fantasy love. But clearly the only seemingly safe bet is Pacheco. Remember this summer when I poo-poo'd McKinnon? It was because I didn't think he could replicate last year's 3+ catches-per-game clip. Now the 31-year-old is averaging only 1.8 catches per game while limping along at 3.0 YPC. Do managers love his two scores? Of course. But if I had to roster him or CEH, I'd choose the higher-upside CEH.
Through the air, Travis Kelce is questionable as I write this, but is expected to suit up. He and Patrick Mahomes . . . nothing needs to be said. But the WR corps? Much needs to be said, though I have nothing useful to express. This summer I pushed Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore as bargains. Was completely wrong. Rashee Rice looks poised to lead this group in fantasy points. And yet, Toney led all K.C. WRs last week with five catches.
Here's what I think will happen: Pacheco and one other RB will get their points. Mahomes and Kelce will get theirs. And three WRs will hit double-digits. The best bets are Rice, Toney, and Justin Watson. So if you're in a deep league and don't have a reliable flex, it's a pretty ideal night to pick up and start one of those three, in that order.
My final score prediction is 37-11 Chiefs. Leave your prediction below. And if anyone picks Denver to win -- and they do win -- you'll be a champion for life. And the NFL playoff race will be utter chaos.