The Cowboys' first five games were unusual, in that they largely contributed to muted fantasy production. Their point margins in wins had been 20, 35, and 40 points. Their DST took care of business in those two blowouts, combining for four TDs. Unless you have that DST, a defensive / special teams touchdown hurts managers in two ways: they keep the ball out of your offensive players' hands, and they run the risk of putting the game out of reach, meaning your starters might get pulled early, and/or the offense might shift to conservative running plays intended to run down the clock and win the field-position battle.
Dallas's losses didn't help either, falling by 32 points to the Niners and 12 to the Cardinals. That 12-point loss elevated secondary/tertiary options like Michael Gallup and Rico Dowdle, further depriving the core offensive skill players of their "normal" production.
But last night finally yielded the kind of numbers managers have been hoping for. Dak Prescott had his best showing of the season. Pollard had his highest output since Week 2, and CeeDee Lamb had his second-highest overall. Brandin Cooks more than doubled his previous high. Sure, Gallup and Josh Ferguson were left out in the cold. But when four Dallas players can earn must-start numbers . . . well, this year it's been a rarity.
I want to zoom in a moment on Pollard. Last year I introduced research on the impact college RB touches *might* have on NFL production and longevity. Admittedly, I don't think it's actionable yet, which is why my preseason rankings didn't incorporate this research. But the data spans 20 years, so it's meaty enough to merit consideration, and dynasty leaguers in particular should take notice.
Pollard's highest touch total in a college season was 117. Almost RB who didn't have more than 150 touches in any college campaign have, historically, tanked in the pros. Pollard and Josh Jacobs have been (so far) the lone exceptions. James Cook and Dameon Pierce also fall into this camp. I specifically named Pierce last summer as a dynasty risk *because* of this reality -- this trend that suggests a relatively low probability of career success.
No doubt, Pollard is doing just fine in his first full bellcow season. However, he and Jacobs happen to be tied for the second-most RB receptions. And among top-14 RBs, they're last and second-to-last, respectively, in yards per carry. Coincidence? Maybe. There are a lot of factors at play. But the difference is that Jacobs has many years of NFL bellcow experience under his belt. Pollard doesn't. How will the latter respond to a 350+ touch season? He's on pace for 342 through Week 17, and could push for 400 if Dallas makes a deep playoff run.
If I had to bet on it, I'd bet on the Cowboys adding a cheap RB before the trade deadline -- ideally someone on a rookie contract. Rhamondre Stevenson comes to mind. Someone with starter experience, and who can help take the load off a high-prized asset who they'll need healthy in January.
Meanwhile, the 2-3 Chargers are in a rough spot. Their defense stepped up for the second consecutive game. But they're headed to Kansas City next weekend in a somewhat must-win contest re: winning the AFC West. I pegged this team as a Super Bowl contender. Injuries have nearly wrecked them. Austin Ekeler's return obviously is critically important, and he flashed as always through the air last night, despite getting bottled up on the ground.
Notably, Quentin Johnston is not yet part of this offense. He played a career-high 35 snaps, up from 33 the week before and 16 the week before that. When he's ready, we'll see why this franchise drafted him in the first round. But he's clearly not ready from a fantasy perspective. Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Joshua Palmer are locked in, with Palmer as more of a streamer.
And while TE-needy managers will embrace Gerald Everett's touchdown, let's not get too excited. His notorious drop history (19 on 212 targets in his previous three years) makes him a wait-and-see flyer. In a high-powered Chargers offense, I like him as a dart throw. But he doesn't offer enough stability to be a roster mainstay.
Finally, it's worth mentioning that Joshua Kelley picked up two touches yesterday, while Isaiah Spiller had one. I mentioned the strong possibility of the Cowboys adding an RB. The Chargers are in a similar boat, with no backfield-elevating RB behind Pollard. While Kelley's a solid emergency backup, if this team truly wants to take the load off the previously overworked Ekeler, they'll need a reliable 1B option.