Betting lines this summer generally had Washington finishing last in the NFC East, while many believed Chicago could make a run at the NFC North title. Instead, the Commanders are squarely in the hunt with a great shot at moving to 3-2, while the winless Bears' semi-realistic postseason hopes could be largely dashed with another defeat tonight.
Washington hasn't had a winning record since 2015, last won a playoff game in 2005, and last won more than 10 regular-season games in 1991 -- their most recent Super Bowl season. But a relatively soft schedule (that included narrow victories over the Cardinals and Broncos) are helping to keep them afloat, while their mostly youthful offensive corps continues to gel.
Their best showing arguably was this past Sunday, when they nearly knocked off the Eagles in Philly. With Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson stymied on the ground, each netting only 3.2 YPC, Sam Howell utilized his full arsenal of receivers. When healthy, guys like Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas can still be above-average targets. Terry McLaurin is an established star. Jahan Dotson arguably is a rising star. And even the 23-year-old Dyami Brown can flash now and then.
15 days ago I picked up Howell for this game. I have Justin Herbert and needed a one-week bye replacement. The conditions seemed ripe for a nice showing. We'll see if expectations align with reality. For now, it's safe to bet on any team facing the Bears' defense, which is surrendering 34.3 points per game. On the Broncos are faring worse. Chicago's also giving up the fourth-most passing yards and second-most passing TDs.
In fact, opposing QBs are averaging the second-most fantasy points against the Bears. The same goes for opposing RBs.
When these teams faced off on Thursday night almost exactly a year ago, Carson Wentz looked washed up, Brian Robinson was playing in only his second NFL game after recovering from gunshot wounds, and Jahan Dotson was sidelined. Meanwhile, after not exceeding 52 rushing yards all season, Justin Fields ran for 60+ for the first of eight consecutive games. Last year's matchup effectively marked the beginning of the end for Wentz and the dawn of Fields' seemingly unquestioned fantasy stardom.
Clearly, much has changed since then. I expect Howell and Robinson to make managers happy in this one. Terry McLaurin is a must-start WR, obviously. Dotson and Samuel are fantastic streamers. This will be a statement game of sorts for franchise that, with the Falcons and Giants on deck, could legitimately position itself as a playoff-caliber team.
For Chicago, of course, things look dimmer. Their collapse versus Denver on Sunday was one for the ages: a post-prime QB and backup RB helping to lead an unlikely comeback on the road. Fields hasn't looked like a franchise QB. He hasn't even looked like a long-term starter. Too many mistakes that he shouldn't be making anymore. He had a brilliant second quarter. Everything else has been close to disastrous.
Fields is on pace to take more than 70 sacks (not all his fault, of course). He's averaging only 4.8 YPC after leading the league last year with 7.1. In fact, he's averaging 3.7 fewer carries per game. It's a bit odd for a guy who can almost single-handedly lead his offense. For context, Tennessee journeyman Joshua Dobbs has rushed for more yards with a higher YPC.
The Commanders' defense isn't exactly stellar, but they've done well enough against a couple of bottom-feeder teams to earn a middling reputation. Tonight will be a big test as they try to slow Fields and Khalil Herbert (and maybe Roshon Johnson) while also attempting to keep D.J. Moore in check. I'd be comfortable betting on Fields for 14+, but not 20+. I'd also be comfortable betting on Moore for 12+ and Cole Kmet for 8+.
Beyond that, the Bears are a tough sell in fantasy. While Herbert went nuts on Sunday, keep in mind that he earned the fourth-most touches of his combined college/professional career. That high-probability Sunday-to-Thursday touch/production regression looms. The same can't quite be said for Brian Robinson, who was limited to 16 touches on Sunday -- presumably, in part, to keep him fresher for tonight. But the Bears threw caution to the wind and rolled with the hot hand: Herbert. He's a high-risk start.
Final score prediction: Commanders win 30-15. Leave your prediction below, and I'll painstakingly go through each one tonight to see who will be crowned champion.
Two veteran RBs made their return from injury last night. One endured the third-fewest fantasy points (as a starter) of his career. The other had a career-high 34 touches.
For the Lions, it was yet another sign that -- although Jahmyr Gibbs' time will come eventually -- his ceilin