Huge games tomorrow, beginning with this morning's matchup in London. This is also the first of many Sundays where bye weeks take their toll. How deep do we need to dig for semi-reliable production? As always, here's the most notable fantasy storyline I'm tracking for each Sunday team. And each paragraph includes which team I think will cover the spread and win. This matters not only for bettors, but also for game-scripting, which ties directly to fantasy probabilities.
Jaguars (+5.5) vs. Bills -- This spread might have been narrower if Buffalo hadn't obliterated Miami last weekend. For Jacksonville, is Christian Kirk the weekly alpha WR, or can Calvin Ridley reclaim his Week 1 dominance? Follow the targets today. And for the Bills, I've been interested in Dalton Kincaid's gradual acclimation to the league, and whether he's on the verge of becoming a top-12 TE with more touchdown potential than we've witnessed.
Texans (+1.5) at Falcons -- Taking Houston to cover and win. A friendly reminder that their DST was insanely undervalued this summer (DST31 ADP). While the Nico Collins vs. Tank Dell question looms, I'm actually fascinated by whether their DST (currently ranked 13th in fantasy scoring) can be a legitimate weekly streamer going forward. Four of their next five games are against the Saints, Panthers, Bucs, and Cardinals, with the Broncos and Jets coming a little later. If they play well against Atlanta, it might be too late to pick them up on the cheap. As for the Falcons, Drake London has collected more than 31 yards only once in four games. But in four Desmond Ridder starts last year (granted, with Kyle Pitts sidelined), London picked up 70, 96, 47. and 120 yards on nine targets per game. There's so much underutilized talent here. We all know it. But it seems inconceivable that London will remain a fringe offensive option.
Lions (-9.5) vs. Panthers -- This might be a sucker's bet with Amon-Ra St. Brown doubtful and Jameson Williams not expected to field a full slate of snaps. Still, Detroit's backfield and defense should do enough to prevail by double-digits. Speaking of that backfield, will Jahmyr Gibbs be turned loose, or is this the plan for the rest of the season, with David Montgomery eating up touches as the lead back? And for Carolina, once again it's all about Miles Sanders vs. Chuba Hubbard. For week's I've believed Hubbard will get more involved. This game could mark a turning point.
Colts (-2.5) vs. Titans -- As of Friday night, it's unclear whether Jonathan Taylor will suit up. So I'm flying blind picking Indy to win by a field goal or more. Fantasy-wise, if Taylor does return, that's clearly the biggest story. And if he doesn't, then another strong showing by Zack Moss could further dampen Taylor's season-long ceiling, which hinges on a high-volume bellcow role. Meanwhile, the 2-2 Titans are playing well enough not to bench Ryan Tannehill, prolonging the inevitable changing-of-the-guard at QB. I'm curious whether DeAndre Hopkins can produce more than middling production as the unquestioned alpha in a favorable matchup. Time is running out for the aging star.
Dolphins (-12.5) vs. Giants -- Miami almost certainly will win big, especially if Saquon Barkley (questionable) sits. The Fins just added Chase Claypool as they try to beef up their tertiary options. But obviously, that's not a compelling story this weekend, and for Miami's sake, hopefully it won't be all year. Instead, is De'Von Achane for real, and if so, is Raheem Mostert suddenly no longer a weekly fantasy starter? And for New York, will Daniel Jones get Darren Waller more involved?
Patriots (-1) vs. Saints -- Call me old-fashioned, but I don't see how New England falls to 1-4. The Bills and Dolphins loom later this month. When the going gets rough, Bill Belichick and his coaches and players always seem to figure things out, at least in the short term. But is Rhamondre Stevenson part of the solution? Anemic running doomed him in September. He'll need to get back on track quickly to maintain his unquestioned lead-back standing. I believe he will. And for New Orleans, Derek Carr is averaging 8.2 fantasy points in three full contests. With Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Michael Thomas healthy and active, one would think most NFL starting QBs could post decent numbers. It's fait to wonder if Carr is harming the fantasy outputs of the Saints' three primary skill players.
Ravens (-4.5) at Steelers -- Will Keaton Mitchell's usage and production match his hype? And as Baltimore's receiving corps gets healthier, it's worth monitoring Zay Flowers' and Mark Andrews' usage. I wrote this summer that Lamar Jackson realistically couldn't feed more than two receivers per game. Flowers is in a more precarious position than Andrews, but both could be affected. For Pittsburgh, George Pickens is a tough WR to figure out. Even with Diontae Johnson out, he often hasn't operated as the alpha. Much of that is due to weak quarterbacking. But since nothing will change on that front this season, we have to wonder if Pickens will remain startable when Johnson returns. There's simply not enough oomph to this team's passing attack.
Rams (+4.5) vs. Eagles -- Picking Philly to remain undefeated, but in another nailbiter. Cooper Kupp is the huge story in this one, with no snap count anticipated. Fire him up as usual . . . and we'll see how he and Puka Nacua produce side-by-side. For the Eagles, Dallas Goedert is one of the best buy-low TEs among top-18 options. I still believe he'll return to greatness, and Philadelphia needs to get him going.
Bengals (-3) at Cardinals -- Will Joe Burrow finish this game healthier than he finished last week's? Basically, is there light at the end of the tunnel for a QB whose health has such a sizable impact on the fantasy values of his top receivers? And for Arizona, is rookie Michael Wilson for real? On Wednesday, I spent $25 FAAB to find out.
Jets (+2.5) at Broncos -- I expect New York to pound the ball early and often, because if Zach Wilson's slinging it, the game's probably out of reach. Breece Hall hasn't exceeded 13 touches this season. His weekly startability likely hinges on a steady dose of 18+ touches. We'll see if game script allows him to break through. Fortunately, Denver's surrendering 5.6 yards per carry. And should managers throw in the towel on Javonte Williams? Too soon? Maybe not. Williams is questionable, and regardless, Jaleel McLaughlin is pushing for a meaningful weekly role.
Vikings (+3.5) vs. Chiefs -- Hedging on this one, expecting a narrow K.C. victory. As always, which Chiefs WR will step up as the #1, or will this remain a crapshoot situation? And for Minnesota, each loss brings rumblings that they might be sellers at the trade deadline. I'm most fascinated by rookie Jordan Addison's quiet Week 4, and whether he'll snap back as a top-3 receiver for Kirk Cousins.
49ers (-3.5) vs. Cowboys -- A possible playoff preview. These storied franchises are knotted up at 19 wins apiece in head-to-head battles (plus one tie). San Francisco holds the hedge because they're at home, and because they have the best RB in the league. But . . . if the 49ers play 20 games this year (including the postseason), CMC would be on pace for 490 touches -- including 400 carries. Each week he dominates, which is obviously great for fantasy managers. But each week his usage remains uber-high, his yellow flag gets a little brighter. And for Dallas, is the Michael Gallup resurgence for real? I added him this week, but plan to drop him tomorrow morning to add a kicker (since I currently don't have one). Still, Gallup is an intriguing investment while playing alongside (declining?) 30-year-old Brandin Cooks.
Raiders (-1) vs. Packers -- I keep going back and forth on this one. Jimmy G. has cleared his concussion protocol and is poised to return on Monday night. But Jaire Alexander should be back for Green Bay, potentially putting a slight strain on Jimmy's three-man passing attack. And it really is only three guys. Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs have combined for 77% of the Raiders' targets. If Meyers hadn't missed a game, it might have been 80%+. But they're only 25th in the league in points scored. I'm wondering if a fourth option will begin to emerge, like Hunter Renfrow or Austin Hooper. And for Green Bay, can Christian Watson (a) stay healthy, and (b) be productive? So much upside if he can just stay on the field.