Kenny Golladay finished the 2021 campaign as the overall WR79. He was also the Giants' top-performing fantasy wideout. His fantasy futility -- and that of his WR teammates -- prompted a question: How rare was that feat? And what does it say about the risks (or lack of risks) of investing in a team's #1 WR?
So I created a spreadsheet highlighting where each team's top positional performer (QB, RB, WR, and TE) ranked since 2002. I learned, for example, that 53% of teams during that span have had at least one top-20 WR, and 72% have at least one top-30 WR.
But the 2021 Giants' situation was historically bad. The only time a team's "best" WR had finished worse was in 2017, when Rashard Higgins led the Browns as the WR88. More than half of his fantasy points that year came in Week 2 (his first game) and Week 17. Corey Coleman was close behind, netting 9+ points four times. All of his other outputs were below three points. Fantasy managers couldn't trust any Cleveland wideout that season.
That brings us back to the Giants, and the painful futility of this year's crop. It was seemingly designed to be a spread-the-ball offense. Preseason ADPs reflected this, with rookie Jalin Hyatt (WR57 ADP) leading the way. I had Isaiah Hodgins as my top preseason Giants WR, but he was all the way back at #77, followed by Parris Campbell (#79) and Wan'Dale Robinson (#82). I believed this would be an historically awful fantasy situation -- one of the worst of the past two decades. Through four weeks, Hodgins is the WR79, while Campbell is the WR82. Darius Slayton leads the pack as the WR73.
As anticipated, there were simply too many comparably capable receivers to choose from. Add in the overvalued Daniel Jones, and we had a recipe for disappointment. Fading Giants WRs on draft day made sense, because no one had a good shot at cracking the top 50. However, keep an eye on Robinson, who's making top-60 noise. The 2022 second-round pick has the highest ceiling in this group.
This franchise -- one of the great underdog stories of last season -- looks broken. Jones was overpaid this offseason, though in fairness his offensive line hasn't helped. Neither has his hodge-podge receiving corps. Still, his average time to throw is better than the league average. Jones is a sub-par NFL passer who happens to be quite mobile. Fantasy-wise, his floor is quite good when his key offensive skill player (i.e. Saquon Barkley) are healthy.
But he's now on pace for a record 94 sacks -- a truly jarring stat. And he's about to face Miami, Buffalo, Washington, and the Jets. This team almost assuredly will be 2-6 or 1-7 on the eve of the NFL's trade deadline. I expect them to be sellers, and I expect there will be middling-to-major fantasy ramifications.
I'm talking chiefly about Barkley, who's playing on a one-year contract. What would be the Giants' justification for keeping him? There is none, unless they plan to sign him long-term after this season (almost 0%), or unless they want to franchise tag him again in 2024 (requiring them to shell out more money than they did this season). Better to trade him to a contender for a draft pick -- possibly a pretty good one, depending on the desperation and Super Bowl aspirations of their trading partner.
The catch-dependent Matt Breida might be a great hold. Or (I believe) the Giants will want to see what they have in rookie Eric Gray while angling for an early-first-round draft pick next spring. For leagues with deep benches, Gray is the better lottery ticket. For managers with thin backfields, Breida is the better hold in case Barkley's gone later this month.
Oh, and not much else needs to be said about Darren Waller. I ranked him 111th overall heading into the season, compared to an overall-51 ADP. The only surprise is that he's still healthy. The hype never made sense. When he broke out in 2019, the Raiders' top two wideouts were fifth-round rookie Hunter Renfrow and journeyman Tyrell Williams. The following year, journeyman Nelson Agholor replaced Williams. It was inconceivable that Waller's massive target share could not be replicated in the Giants' run-friendly offense. At 31 years old, the once-great TE is simply a weekly flyer in a crowded corps.
For Seattle, those who needed a huge day from Kenneth Walker have to feel disappointed about that early 73-yard TD run that was called back. He still did "fine," but considering Zach Charbonnet picked up three targets (and Walker had zero), it probably wasn't an ideal night for some of you. Walker isn't shaping up as a 40+ reception RB, which makes him a little more TD-dependable than a typical bell cow. But that's nit-picking. He's the overall RB5. He's been as good as advertised. And if you have him but not Charbonnet, do what you need to do to secure that handcuff.
Through the air, Geno Smith (and briefly Drew Lock) didn't need to do much in a comfortable win. D.K. Metcalf is the WR22, and Tyler Lockett is the WR38. There's not enough oomph to this passing attack to elevate both of them consistently, and there's certainly not enough to generate value for all-world rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Dynasty leaguers should buy low on JSN in a hurry, if that's still possible.
And one final word on the Giants. Be prepared for big changes. The writing's on the wall. Their upcoming painful schedule isn't the end of the gauntlet; it's only the beginning. They also have two games remaining against the Eagles, plus road matchups versus Dallas, Washington, and New Orleans. They could realistically finish 2-15 and "earn" the #1 overall draft pick. Franchise-augmenting talents like QB Caleb Williams and WR Marvin Harrison Jr. await. At some point, this team will be actively positioning for 2024. And if Jones keeps getting pummeled, and if Barkley's long gone, this team could look entirely different by December.