Raise your hand if teams' fantasy playoff schedules factor into your draft-day decisions. Admittedly, my hand is only partially raised, because it's often hard to gauge which schedules will be "easy" and which ones will be "hard." Some analysts were confident that Houston would be an easy out. Instead, they've scored the 15th most points and yielded the 11th fewest. The lowest-scoring teams are the Patriots, Bengals, and Giants. Cincy should rebound eventually, but the other two offenses look downright anemic. The Pats were 17th in scoring last year, and the Giants were 15th. Massive regressions weren't entirely expected.
So yeah, I make some judgment calls based on who I *think* will be middling or worse on offense, and/or middling or worse on defense. My interest in Eagles players stems partly from my belief they'd dominate (they haven't), and partly from their seemingly favorable fantasy-playoff schedule (what I'm calling Weeks 15-17). They have Seattle on the road, and then the Giants and Cards at home. Not bad at all.
Now that we're at the quarter turn of the fantasy season (or near it, for those who compete in Week 18), the there's more clarity on which skill players look relatively strong down the stretch, and which ones don't.
Starting with Philly, I'd strongly advise buying low on Kenneth Gainwell and Dallas Goedert. D'Andre Swift is a higher-than-normal injury risk based on his history, and a higher-than-normal inactive risk in December if he's not quite 100%. Because as the season progresses, if the Eagles look poised to win the NFC East, they'll surely play things a bit more conservatively with their star RB. As for Goedert, he's been money or close to money for several years. He's currently the TE30. I'm confident he'll be a top-16 TE the rest of the way, with a better than 50/50 shot at posting top-12 numbers the rest of the way.
There's also a lot to love about the Chargers' fantasy playoff schedule. After facing the Broncos at home in Week 14 (a great matchup for those needing a win to get in), he'll get the Raiders, Bills, and then the Broncos again. Vegas and Denver have been awful on defense, and the Buffalo contest could be a shootout, especially after the loss of Pro Bowl CB Tre'Davious White. No one needs advice about Joshua Palmer. But Quentin Johnston is a nothing-to-lose acquisition in deeper leagues. The talent is there, and he has a couple months to round into form.
On the flip side, I'm not excited about two-thirds of Cleveland's schedule. As they push for a division title in the surprisingly competitive AFC North, the Browns have a pretty ideal home game against the Bears in Week 15. But their next two contests are in Houston and at home against the Jets. Simply put, I wouldn't be excited about starting Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, etc. in the semis and finals. Jerome Ford could make some noise on the ground if the Texans' run D doesn't improve. But on the whole, those Week 16/17 games could be offensive slogs.
Meanwhile, the key Dolphins skill players seem like automatic starts. And yet, aside from Braxton Berrios, all of their receivers just scored single-digits versus the Bills. Beating up on the Chargers and Broncos isn't a true test of what they could do in Weeks 15-17 against the Jets, Cowboys, and Ravens (in Baltimore). Does this make Tua, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane, etc. benchable? Of course not. At least, not based on what we know now. But . . . do any of their RBs and WRs have a "great" shot at 20+ points in any of those games? The timing is rough for guys who, if their fantasy playoff schedule were easier, could be set up as league winners.
Finally -- and this isn't just limited to the playoffs -- Kenneth Walker might be one of the biggest (and most surprising) sell-high RBs. His remaining weeks are (5) bye, (6) @Bengals, (7) Cardinals . . . and you're probably thinking, "What's the problem?" After Arizona he gets (8) Browns, (9) @Ravens, (10) Commanders, (11) @Rams, (12) 49ers, (13) @Cowboys, and (14) @49ers. Then the fantasy playoffs: Eagles, @Titans, Steelers.
Yeah, Pittsburgh at home could be great. But aside from them and Arizona, every other team is currently in the top 16 in fewest opposing RB fantasy points. Many are elite or near-elite in opposing yards per carry.
It's still early. There are outliers. But Walker's the overall RB5 despite averaging only two catches per game. Zach Charbonnet looms. Walker needs volume and scores to remain top 5. More likely than not, he'll hit several rough patches when his schedule toughens after Week 7. As talented as he is, it's hard to envision him maintaining anywhere close to this production.