Yesterday marked the beginning of the three-week countdown before the NFL trade deadline. I've written a lot these last few months about guys I *believe* will move on or before October 31st, such as Derrick Henry. Saquon Barkley is now a prime candidate on the 1-4 Giants, which almost assuredly will fall to 1-5 when they head to Buffalo this weekend. Even Rhamondre Stevenson seems more likely to go elsewhere than wallow in the NFL's worst offense (based on points scored).
Speaking of the Pats, their 11.0 points per game is their lowest average since 1970 -- their final season as the Boston Patriots before changing their name to New England. Also, they averaged 20.4 in 2020 -- their first season without Tom Brady -- which was their lowest mark since 2000 . . . the year before Brady took over. This is truly unchartered territory for a franchise that hasn't been atrocious in 31 years.
But you didn't come here to read about the Patriots' woes. (Or maybe some of you did). The point is that this three-week run-up to the trade deadline is (I believe) going to be eventful. Dozens of player values could swing wildly. And yesterday's barrage of painful injury news only compounds the issue.
Justin Jefferson's news is earth-shattering. A consensus top-2 draft pick this summer, he delivered monster production in his first four games. And now the whole pre-trade-deadline calculus for Minnesota could change. Jefferson will miss at least the next four games. If they're lucky, the 1-4 Vikes will be 3-5 on Halloween Eve (does anyone still call it that?). They could be 2-6. Will they hold onto Kirk Cousins if the playoffs seem out of reach? As highlighted the other day, this should be one of the biggest worries for managers rostering Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, or Jordan Addison -- and now, K.J. Osborn.
We know what happens to fantasy receivers when there's a huge talent-drop off at QB. If you're rostering Viking receivers, root for them to run the table against Chicago, San Francisco, and Green Bay. It's a longshot, and it might be the best shot for these receivers to remain good/great.
Then there's De'Von Achane. Ugh. In a year when so many eyes (particularly dynasty eyes) were on Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Achane scored 99.8 fantasy points in his first three full NFL games. Who does that? I mean, really. Has any rookie had a more prolific start to his career? Who knows when his knee injury will heal. For now, Raheem Mostert is the biggest fantasy winner, while Jeff Wilson is more of a glorified handcuff who could take center stage if the 31-year-old Mostert misses time.
Then there's James Conner, whose knee injury on Sunday will cost him several weeks. This is why I steered clear of Conner this summer. He's missed 3+ games in four of his last five campaigns. It'll probably be five out of six by the time we see him again. The plucky 1-4 Cards are essentially playing for draft picks. There's no reason to rush Kyler Murray back, and there's no reason to rush Conner back.
Newly installed backup RB Emari Demercado averaged only about one reception per game in his final three seasons at TCU. But he's been involved a bit in the passing attack as a rookie, and if that continues, he could have weekly stand-alone value. That said, be wary of the "hot-hand" possibilities. Arizona just signed Tony Jones, and Keaontay Ingram looms. Negative game scripts probably will cap the ceiling of whoever takes over. While Demercado is currently the lead guy, I wouldn't overcommit to him as a waiver add.
And we can't leave out Van Jefferson, who -- despite being healthy -- was still a notable name yesterday. The Rams unloaded him for a sixth and seventh rounder, which is an ugly return for a former second-rounder. Jefferson played at Florida with Kyle Pitts and Kyle Trask (no relation), as well as Kadarius Toney and Dameon Pierce. He was drafted 35 picks after Justin Jefferson, who played at LSU. When those two teams met a little over six months before both Jeffersons were drafted, Justin produced a sterling 10-123-1 receiving line, while Van electrified with an 8-73-2 line.
Van is headed to Atlanta, where he'll team up again with Pitts. There's a small risk that he'll cut into Drake London's upside. But what's more likely is that he'll cut into 30-year-old Mack Hollins' upside. In other words, it's hard to imagine Jefferson shining in one of the league's worst passing attacks. But reuniting with Pitts is a nice story -- assuming they like each other.