Last season, 33 RBs had 150+ carries. They averaged 8.3 touchdowns, including 7.1 on the ground. Each of the top 10 had 10+ total TDs. Only four of the 33 had less than five scores. Eleven more had 5-6 scores. Six RBs had 7-8 scores. The 12 remaining backs had 10+. And 15 of the top 20 fantasy-scoring RBs had 8+ TDs. So if you drafted a high-volume running back, then as long as that RB stayed healthy and atop the depth chart, there was a great chance you'd end up with a high-fantasy-scoring running back.
It was somewhat similar last year for WRs. 33 of them had 100+ targets. A couple of these guys had less than three TDs. Eight had 3-4, while another eight had 5-6. And 15 hit pay dirt 7+ times through the air. And interestingly, 197 of the top 20 fantasy-scoring WRs had 6+. Targets generated a higher probability of touchdowns, and touchdowns helped elevate WRs to higher scoring tiers.
There's no perfect way to spot a bargain. But I'm a big believer in volume -- that players who get the most looks generally have the highest ceilings, which translates into higher probabilities to reach the fantasy playoffs and, ultimately, win the title. On the one hand, it's obvious stuff. On the other hand, managers still make the mistake of overvaluing low-touch RBs and low-target WRs. Sure, they might have scored in three of their last four games. But is it sustainable? Not unless they earn more volume.
This is why I try to avoid backup RBs who aren't sure-fire handcuffs. It's why I was happy to sell relatively high on Roschon Johnson and Jordan Mason. If we're desperate, we'll take 8-10 touches from our #2 RB. But we're always looking for two bellcows, because that's the difference between *possible* touchdowns and *very* possible touchdowns.
It's also why I rarely accept trade offers for teams' #3 WRs. I don't remember the last time a team's #3 WR was a weekly fantasy starter all year. Maybe Wes Welker in 2013? They might get 80-90 targets if things go beautifully. But they rarely get the looks that lead to high TD totals, meaning even the best are barely startable week to week.
The last time a WR finished in the top 30 while netting less than 90 targets was Tyler Lockett in 2018. He reeled in over 80% of his targets while compiling an unusual 71-965-10 receiving line. It was a perfect storm of success, with a catch rate that -- at the time -- was one of the highest in NFL history among wideouts.
Of course, there are outliers. De'Von Achane somehow remains the overall RB9, because he's averaged 2.2 fantasy points per touch. He's netting 12.1 yards per carry. No one in NFL history can compare to his insane start.
And that brings us to Jordan Addison, who I think is one of the most fascinating fantasy players at the moment. Incredibly talented. Primed for more big games as Kirk Cousins' #1 WR. A first-round rookie with solid speed and seemingly great hands (only on drop so far). By most accounts, he's an obvious must-start option with Justin Jefferson sidelined, and he might be a must-start the rest of the year regardless of Jefferson's health.
On the flip side, can we trust that his target share will remain high when Jefferson returns? 34% of his fantasy points have come through touchdowns -- not TD catches, but the actual six-point scores. That's the highest among all top-30 fantasy WRs. Only two others are higher than 24%. In fact, the average among the other 29 WRs is 16%. Addison's more than double that percentage. That suggests outlier territory.
Now, as a rookie, perhaps he's "only getting better," and so his target floor might rise from 5-6 per game to 8-10. And as long as Minnesota struggles on the ground (still zero rushing scores), Cousins will need more from his receivers, with Addison playing a co-lead role.
But managers should recognize that, especially when Jefferson returns, we could see plenty of boom-bust performances from Addison. It's at least strongly possible. And so we could make the case that he's a buy-low guy (if we're witnessing ascending greatness). And we could make the case that he's a sell-high guy, who needs big plays to thrive.
Watch to see if the Vikes add an RB before the trade deadline, and also what Jefferson's prognosis looks like in the next week (if anything is reported). Both should factor into Addison's rest-of-season potential.