Two veteran RBs made their return from injury last night. One endured the third-fewest fantasy points (as a starter) of his career. The other had a career-high 34 touches.
For the Lions, it was yet another sign that -- although Jahmyr Gibbs' time will come eventually -- his ceiling is firmly capped when David Montgomery's active. Surely, some fantasy managers feel a bit cheated. Montgomery was questionable 24 hours ago. He's never been an efficient runner, with a career 3.9 YPC. And yet, very quietly (in that fantasy analysts frequently ignore it), Montgomery has one of the NFL's best broken-tackle rates of the last five years. His size and strength make him tough to take down. The Lions know this, and I believe that's why they deployed him early and often as a chain-mover and goal-line asset.
Of course, 34 touches wasn't on my Thursday Night Football bingo card. But an extraordinarily positive game script fed the volume. There's a good chance we'll see another big game from Montgomery next week at home versus the Panthers' sub-par run D.
Through the air, Jared Goff only needed to be middling, and he "came through." After an early turnover, he settled into a game-manager role. He'll get credit for helping to lead Detroit to a key victory. But his 11.4 fantasy points has to be disappointing for Superflex managers and those in large one-QB leagues who felt the urge to start him. Goff's TD pass to a wide-open Amon-Ra St. Brown wasn't even on target. St. Brown had to spin and come back for it. Had Green Bay's safety closed faster, St. Brown probably wouldn't have scored.
Last year I pushed Goff as a preseason bargain. I think his preseason QB ADP was 27. It was ridiculous. This year he was my QB12 compared to a QB17 ADP. Last night is a reminder of two things: (1) a healthy running game takes a lot of pressure off Goff, frequently sapping him of high ceilings, and (2) more pointedly, he should be benched when playing on the road.
That latter point needs to be stressed. When he arrived in Detroit two years ago, he finished that season with a 13-3 TD-INT clip at home and a 6-5 clip (in two fewer games) on the road. His QB rating was 18.8 points better at home. Then last year, the gap was even wider: a 23-3 clip at home and a 6-4 clip on the road. His QB rating was 21.9 points better at home.
Things have already begun to play out similarly this season. Keep this in your back pocket going forward.
For the Packers, Aaron Jones simply crashed. I was convinced he would hit double-digits, thanks to enough passing-game usage to keep him relevant. At the same time, I issued a warning: we shouldn't expect a breakout game, mostly because the Lions' run D is somewhere between elite and near-elite. After shutting down three great RBs on the ground, they can now add Jones to the list. And while one could argue the sample size isn't sufficient, and that Jones didn't get enough work regardless, I see it differently.
As some of you know, the Lions and Texans were my two favorite "undraftable" DSTs this summer. Talent-wise, they can both be top-12 units (when healthy). What happened last night wasn't a fluke. Had Green Bay been able to establish the run, they surely would have given Jones and/or A.J. Dillon more work. There have been suggestions that Jones might have been snap-counted. I disagree. The game was out of hand by the second quarter as Green Bay shifted to a pass-heavy offense.
The point is, Detroit's defense once again earned its stripes. It eliminated one half of the Packers' offense while issuing five sacks and picking off a couple passes. This was the Lions' defense at their best, and in a tough road game versus a seemingly capable offense. If they're available in your league, find room for them.
As for Green Bay's passing game, Jordan Love once again gutted out fantasy relevance, finishing with 17.6 points. It wasn't pretty. He's still green, and sometimes it shows. But as long as his offensive playmakers are healthy, he'll be somewhere between fine and more-than-fine. Through the air, Christian Watson's return didn't impact Romeo Doubs or even Jayden Reed -- at least not yet. We'll see if Love can feed 2+ receivers going forward. It could be a bit of a guessing game for managers, with Watson offering the highest ceiling and (perhaps) Doubs offering the highest floor.
And the winner of the closest-score competition is . . . no, "are" two people. Yes, we have a tie. Matthew Kennedy and Scott Korn both predicted 31-20 -- only three points off. A special mention to Hector Chavez for picking 34-24 (four points off) and reminding us that the "Lions are always underestimated." I should have listened.
Congrats to the brilliant Matthew and Scott, who join the Ring of Fire, or the Circle of Champions, or the Collection of Closest-Scorers. Still workshopping the name. Suggestions welcomed.