When the modern-day iteration of Thursday Night Football began in 2006, Aaron Rodgers was a second-year pro waiting for Brett Favre to leave or retire. And when the Lions and Packers faced off in Week 18 last season, Jordan Love was a second-year pro waiting for Rodgers to leave or retire.
That Week 18 contest closed out the 2022 regular season. Had Green Bay won, they would have had another shot at a title during the Rodgers era. Detroit had been eliminated from playoff contention earlier, but still managed to upset their divisional rivals on the road. The defeat also left Rodgers with only the third losing record of his career. And there's an outside change it will turn out to be the final full game of his career.
But it could be argued that the Packers are better off with Jordan Love at the helm. That might sound unfair or bandwagon-y. Yet it's also consistent with what you've seen on this page since July. Rodgers is post-prime. He struggled to elevate his receiving corps. Yes, that corps was young and often injured. But Rodgers played sub-par.
How do we know? Well, I suppose we can't know for sure. But I believe the evidence is pretty clear. Despite missing Aaron Jones for two games and Christian Watson for all three, Jordan Love has played at a very high level. With substitute starter A.J. Dillon managing only 3.4 yards per game in two starts, Love has had to put his team on his back. Their victory over the Saints, in which they scored 18 points in the fourth quarter, was a defining moment for a relatively young and inexperienced offense. Having Jones and Watson back will only make them stronger. Much stronger.
There's a lot to like fantasy-wise about the 2023 Packers, from Love to Jones, from a healthy Watson to Romeo Doubs, and to rookies Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave. They're built to win a divisional title, and in Love they have a QB who can feed 2-3 receivers per game, even if Jones plays big.
And yet, they're facing a deceptively capable Lions defense. Despite their early-season injuries, they remain above-average, particularly against the run. In that Week 18 contest, the Lions held Aaron Jones to only 48 yards on 12 carries, plus 20 yards on three catches. He also lost a fumble.
Their D looks even stronger up front this year. In Week 1, Isiah Pacheco managed only 2.8 yards per carry. The following week, Kenneth Walker managed only 2.5 YPC. Then last week, Bijan Robinson netted a mere 3.3, while Tyler Allgeier averaged 1.7.
Are these outliers? Hard to say, and yet none of these were puff matchups. Beating the Chiefs on the road (largely with their defense) and then mostly shutting down two of the NFL's best young RBs (though Walker managed two scores) deserve some consideration heading into tonight. Is Aaron Jones an automatic start? That's the question. If he's good to go, then I'd roll with him as a top-20 RB, thanks to strong PPR upside. But I'm not banking on a blow-up performance.
Through the air, Christian Watson might make his 2023 debut. The talented wideout is primed for good numbers the rest of the year *if* he can stay on the field. However, even if he starts, it's unclear what his usage will be alongside Doubs and the ascending Reed. He's clearly the riskiest of the three if he plays.
Meanwhile, the Lions won't have to contend with Jaire Alexander, who's still on the mend. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are as startable as ever. Josh Reynolds was nursing an injury on Sunday, which might explain why he took a backseat to Kalif Raymond. If Reynolds is healthy, he's a decent enough deep-league flyer. But I wouldn't be excited to start him.
And on the ground, David Montgomery might return. Jahmyr Gibbs had 18 touches on Sunday. If Montgomery returns, I'm betting the Lions will give him more work than Gibbs, making both somewhat risky top-30 RBs. It's understandable why some managers need to start one or both. The fact is, if the Lions score, there's a decent chance one of them will be involved. But I'd be shocked if either exceeds 14 points.
Final score prediction: Packers 26, Lions 20. Go for the gold; leave your prediction below.