As always on Saturday, let's run through the biggest fantasy storylines I'm following in this week's remaining games. Also as always, sharing my picks on point spreads and winners. Went 9-7 on point spreads and 10-6 on winners last week. Despite last night's miss to open Week 4, here's hoping the decent times keep rolling.
Jaguars (-3) vs. Falcons -- This London contest features two teams with surprisingly struggling (relatively speaking) passing attacks. For the Jags, I'm eyeing a rebound for Calvin Ridley. This team has to get him going, period. And Ridley has to snap back to Week 1 form, period. Expecting monster performances for him and Trevor Lawrence. Meanwhile, Atlanta has to get Drake London going. The star wideout is on pace for a 45-555-6 receiving line, which would be dramatically worse than last year's totals. It's inconceivable that he'll continue to languish.
Bills (-2.5) vs. Dolphins -- Researched the 10 teams that scored 56+ points in a game during the previous 15 seasons. Nine of them scored 20+ the next game. Three scored 30+. Will Miami score 40+? It's absolutely possible. And it's also possible that the Bills will build off of last week's crushingly good defensive performance to keep Miami (mostly) in check. We'll see. For now, I'm fascinated by what will happen in the Dolphins' backfield: whether Raheem Mostert will remain the dominant 1A RB, or whether Devon Achane will move into a timeshare. For Buffalo, can Gabe Davis be more than a boom-bust streamer?
Bears (+3.5) vs. Broncos -- It speaks volumes that the team that just surrendered 70 points is favored to win a week later. Are the Bears that bad? So far, yes. But they have nowhere to go but up, and I think they'll make adjustments that culminate in more effective running for Justin Fields, and ultimately their first W of the year. Fantasy-wise, is this the week Roschon Johnson takes over the backfield, or will Khalil Herbert continue to cling to the top spot? And for Denver, is Courtland Sutton the receiver to start, or is it Jerry Jeudy's turn to step up?
Browns (-1) vs. Ravens -- A few weeks ago, this looked like must-see TV on a national scale. Now it's Cleveland minus Nick Chubb versus Baltimore minus J.K. Dobbins and likely two-thirds of their starting WR corps. Jerome Ford needs to continue playing well to maintain his workhorse role for the rest of the season. And fantasy managers who drafted Mark Andrews early have to wonder if he can remain near-elite in 2023, or if his rough start to the season is a sign of things to come.
Titans (+2.5) vs. Bengals -- Taking Tennessee to win outright. Despite their struggles in the secondary, they're close to elite against the run, as well as pressuring quarterbacks. Joe Burrow will need to get the ball out quickly. Joe Mixon seems almost unstartable in 10-team leagues. Despite solid volume, he's the RB19 in fantasy points per game. He could drop outside the top 24 after this weekend. If that happens, should managers be concerned? For the Titans, can Derrick Henry snap back into shape, or is this the clear beginning of his decline?
Colts (-1) vs. Rams -- I'm still eyeing Josh Downs as a breakout star. He's only tied for 9th in rookie receiving yards, but he's tied with Tank Dell for 4th in rookie receptions. Downs could be a pretty consistent streamer this year. And for L.A., can Tutu Atwell outperform Puka Nacua? You know what I think. We'll see how it turns out.
Saints (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers -- All eyes (or many eyes) are on Alvin Kamara. His career numbers have been declining the past two years. At 28 years old, he's a true wild card in an offense with no immediate workhorse competition. And Baker Mayfield has thrown for less than 175 passing yards in four of five games, dating back to last season. Can he feed Mike Evans and Chris Godwin? Probably only one.
Eagles (-8.5) vs. Commanders -- Washington handed Philly their first loss last year. Will it happen again? Doubt it. The Eagles are still trying to figure things out on both sides of the ball. On offense, does Dallas Goedert still belong in starting fantasy lineups? I believe yes, but smart people might say otherwise. For Washington, Carson Wentz looked terrific early on last season before imploding. This year, Sam Howell looked terrific in Weeks 1 and 2 before imploding last weekend. The fantasy values of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel hang in the balance.
Vikings (-4.5) at Panthers -- It's tough taking a road team to win by 5+, especially a winless road team. But after going 10-0 (or was it 11-0?) in one-score games last year, the Vikes are 0-3 in one-score games this year. Karma. In the fantasy world, will Alexander Mattison lead this backfield, or will Cam Akers step up? For Carolina, is Adam Thielen for real? He's a top-10 WR in terms of production. Simply incredible, and also an indication of how weak the rest of their receiving corps is. I'd try to sell high, but easier said than done for a 32-year-old in a bottom-tier offense.
Texans (+3) vs. Steelers -- After watching Houston dismantle Jacksonville on the road, I'm betting on them to win by more than a touchdown. C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell are locked in. My big quesiton is whether Nico Collins is still a weekly starter, or if the torch has been passed. For Pittsburgh, the Najee Harris vs. Jaylen Warren saga would be far more interesting if one of them scored. They cancel each other out.
Chargers (-5.5) vs. Raiders -- What will L.A.'s offense look like without Mike Williams? Well, the Raiders' D isn't an accurate test. The Chargers should score 30+, even with Austin Ekeler doubtful. Fantasy-wise, will Joshua Palmer earn more snaps and targets than Quentin Johnston? And for Vegas, I sound like a broken record. But it's a record that needs to keep playing. Josh Jacobs was -- and remains -- a high-probability regression candidate. And if the Raiders are out of postseason contention by the fantasy playoffs, I'd be shocked if they keep rolling with a struggling RB on his way out the door.
Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Patriots -- How will Dallas respond to their shocking defeat in Arizona? Expect CeeDee Lamb to be peppered early and often. And zooming in, Jake Ferguson is still a fantastic boom-bust option for TE-needy managers. For New England, can Rhamondre Stevenson can back on track? I'm still relatively bullish rest-of-season, though not this week.
49ers (-14) vs. Cardinals -- That's a lot of points, though San Francisco can get it done. Will they scale back CMC's workload? Again, he's been over-worked. Elijah Mitchell is a sneaky play. And can we trust Marquise Brown? He seems like a huge sell-high guy, playing in a weak passing attack and benefiting largely from a couple of touchdowns. It doesn't seem sustainable.
Jets (+8.5) vs. Chiefs -- Expect a quarterback change (for the Jets, not for the Chiefs) during this game or the following day. That said, I like New York losing by a touchdown or less. Watch for Breece Hall and/or Dalvin Cook to get as much work as possible while the game's still competitive. Garrett Wilson is the same TD-or-bust WR as always. And for K.C., which WR will step up? It appears to be a battle between Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice, with Kadarius Toney looming as a talented-yet-underperforming wild card.
Seahawks (-1.5) at Giants -- The ascending Zach Charbonnet isn't going anywhere. Kenneth Walker's job is safe. But . . . Charbonnet is quickly becoming one of fantasy's most valuable handcuffs. And for New York, their season might come down to this game. Road matchups versus Miami and Buffalo come next. They could be 1-5 or 2-4 with the NFL trade deadline approaching. It's a fantasy nightmare trying to determine which players to trust, with only a healthy Saquon Barkley (seemingly) falling into that camp. I'm still tracking Darren Waller, and whether he's the overrated TE I warned about this summer, or a breakout candidate in a passing attack that needs more from its top players.