The most notable fantasy storyline last night wasn't Deebo Samuel's elite numbers, or George Kittle finally looking like George Kittle. It wasn't rookie Ronnie Bell finding the end zone or Brock Purdy earning his first "must-start" performance of the season. It wasn't any Giant performance, which -- aside from Matt Breida's score -- looked as anemic as expected.
The biggest fantasy storyline was Christian McCaffrey's high usage. If you're reveling in his early-season success, take note. If you're rostering or considering targeting Elijah Mitchell or even (in very deep leagues) Jordan Mason, what I'm sharing here *probably* will matter.
On August 16th, I shared research on high-snap-count RBs, and how they fare the following season. Here's a snippet:
"A whopping 22 RBs had 600+ snaps last year. The top four were Saquon Barkley (955 snaps), CMC (914), Dalvin Cook (891), and Josh Jacobs (821). I've been publicly fading Saquon, Cook, and Jacobs all summer. The data shows they are excessive regression risks. That's why Cook signing with the Jets didn't impact him much on my draft board. Yeah, he moved up, because he has a home. But he's nowhere near his ADP."
I went on to acknowledge how much I was struggling with where to rank CMC. He was my overall RB1, in line with ADP and consensus "expert" rankings. But there was some anxiety about this decision, and I wanted to spell out why.
Many of you know by now that Saquon, Cook, and Jacobs were all strong fades on my draft board. Saquon (overall-7 ADP) was my 28th-ranked player. Jacobs (overall-16 ADP) was #65. Cook (overall-61 ADP) was #107. My research guided my thinking, and I stood by it. To some of you, it seemed reckless. In particular, I received many messages asking how I could rank Saquon and Jacobs that low. After what we saw last year, they seemed safe. But no, they weren't, and through the season's first 15 days, things have played out as anticipated.
CMC is more complicated, because he plays in a high-powered offense and is consistently uber-elite through the air. And San Francisco managed his usage last year, which signaled at least a possibility that they'd continue to keep him around 18=20 touches a game -- still a lot, but manageable.
But entering last night, he led the league in carries, and he'll probably continue to top the list when Week 3 is in the books. His 71 touches put him on pace for 402. That's not realistically sustainable for a guy who's dealt with multiple serious injuries. Frankly, it's not realistically sustainable for most 27-year-old RBs, regardless of durability concerns or past workload.
Last night was particularly concerning after he netted 23 touches on Sunday. That *compounded* usage (46 touches in five days) is historically excessive. Since the start of 2013, for Sunday-to-Thursday running backs, 373 have earned 10+ touches on the first leg (Sunday). Less than one-third (113) have earned 20+ touches that Sunday. And of those 113, only 30 times has an RB accrued as many or more touches that Thursday.
I strongly believe the Niners intended to give Elijah Mitchell more work last night, and CMC less. That's why I (wrongly) recommended Mitchell as a flyer. But the game remained surprisingly close. McCaffrey had a 14 touches at halftime. Then six more in the third quarter, with the final outcome still in doubt, followed by three more in the fourth quarter as Mitchell gradually took over.
My "trust" in McCaffrey as my overall RB1 this summer hinged on San Francisco managing his touches. But they aren't doing that, and so now his high snap count last season matters more than ever. He's not yet in the Saquon-Cook=Jacobs camp, but he's getting closer. Managers should be concerned, at minimum. If Mitchell's available in your league, snag him as soon as you can. Or try to trade for him. In the short term, next week's contest versus Arizona should mean another 10+ touches for the valuable handcuff. In the long term, he could get some spot starts.
Because let's remember: about 79% of 600-snap RBs score fewer fantasy points the following season. And the regression rates get progressive worse the higher the snap count. McCaffrey can do so much damage on 80=100 receptions and 10+ scores, so I gave him the benefit of the doubt. But at a certain point, we have to sound the alarm. This is my alarm. The 49ers need to curtail his workload soon.
On a more positive note, we have a winner in the closest-score contest. Because there's always a winner. There were some incredible runner-ups. About a dozen of you were between two and four points off. But Josh Pledger takes the prize, predicting 30-13. Had the Giants settled for an extra point in the third quarter instead of trying (and failing) to go for the two-point conversion, Pledger would have hit it on the nose. Congrats Josh!