A few weeks ago, tonight's matchup might have looked like an NFC showdown. Last season, the Giants were one win away from facing the 49ers in the conference title game. Of course, "one win away" is like me running half a mile and saying I'm a few miles short of a marathon. New York never really had a chance.
And this season, it's fair to wonder if these (mostly) same Giants can return to the playoffs. Their star running back is out. Their "franchise" QB has struggled for most of his first two games (besides a belated fourth-quarter comeback versus the lowly Cardinals). They've taken the second-most sacks (10) and have a not-so-surprisingly thin wideout corps, thanks to continued injuries to Wan'Dale Robinson and irrelevance from the often-injured Sterling Shepard.
One interesting stat for Giants WRs: they've caught only 19 of 34 targets (56%). That's down 11 percentage points from last year. Whether that's a Daniel Jones issue or a WR issue or a combination of the two, it's notable. Based on opponents' previous-season win-loss records, the 2022 Giants had the fourth-easiest schedule. This year they're tied for the fourth-toughest.
Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins are useful holdovers from last year. Parris Campbell (2.3 yards per target) has to do better. Rookie Jalin Hyatt is promising, but still a work in progress. And with Saquon Barkley sidelined, this WR corps will be expected to step up.
Of course, Darren Waller will continue to earn plenty of targets as an offensive focal point. You all know my views on him. He was my preseason TE10, compared to a TE5 ADP. So far, he's exceeded my muted expectations -- though these expectations assume he'll miss multiple contests with injuries. I'd sell high if possible.
As for Saquon Barkley, some of you asked in July and August why I was so down on him. I pointed to his 377 touches (regular season and playoffs) and massive snap count (a career-high 856). I shared research showing how high touches signal likely regressions/injuries the following season, and similar research showing how high snap counts did the same. Additionally, I discussed why players with both yellow flags (high touches and high snaps) should be sharp fades on draft day.
And now the Giants are left with a combination of Matt Breida, Gary Brightwell, and perhaps rookie Eric Gray. It's an absolute mess, exacerbated by a tough road matchup. Candidly, I don't see the logic of starting any of them. In what might end up as a lost season, Gray holds the best fantasy-playoff value of the three, as this franchise eventually might want to see what they have in the rookie.
Through the air, Jones's floor is probably around 11 points, and his ceiling is roughly 16. Not very enjoyable, unless you're in a two-QB / Superflex league. And it's anyone's guess if one of his WRs will step up. All of them are TD-dependent tonight. The same probably goes for Waller. The Niners have faced TEs Pat Freiermuth and Tyler Higbee so far. Neither is an offensive slouch. Yet they were limited to a combined 15 yards on 11 targets. Waller is deceptively risky.
For San Francisco, Brandon Aiyuk is questionable as of this morning. If he sits, the historically capable Jauan Jennings would be an intriguing deep-league streamer. But let's be candid: it would primarily mean higher ceilings for Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and CMC. Those three and Brock Purdy are obvious must-starts in a plus matchup, and the Niners' DST's over/under for fantasy points is 16 (and I'm taking the over).
Finally, a note on CMC. As highlighted a few days ago, Sunday RBs generally net fewer touches when the play four days later. Because their game against the Rams was fairly competitive, San Francisco had to keep feeding their all-world RB. That resulted in 23 touches for McCaffrey. Assuming tonight is a blowout win, I'd be shocked if he clears 15 touches. That's generally how Sunday-to-Thursday regressions work. Specifically, in the previous 10 seasons, RBs with 20+ touches in the first leg of a Sunday-Thursday combo average a 22% drop in touches in the second game. That would put CMC's over/under at 18 touches. I'm taking the under.
Final score prediction: Niners win 37-9. With Seattle, Miami, and Buffalo up next, the Giants could realistically begin the season 2-5 or 1-6, forcing them to make (perhaps) a big decision before the trade deadline . . .
Leave your score prediction below, and any other comments, complaints, or calamitous fantasy news (i.e. if you want to vent).
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