The latest news on rain and wind (as of 6:30am Eastern) is pretty good fantasy-wise. The Jets-Patriots game might have the toughest conditions, possibly leading to heavier workloads for Rhamondre Stevenson, Breece Hall, and Dalvin Cook -- and maybe Zeke Elliott if the veteran can muster anything against a tough run D.
But of all the games to be impacted by weather, Jets-Patriots hardly qualifies. Neither team boasts fantasy-friendly passing attacks. And yet, if you're facing an opponent who's starting, say, Garrett Wilson and/or the Jets' defense (my opponent is starting both), the weather might matter.
Also, we've reached the phase of the NFL season (Week 3 thru, sure, Week 18) when many/most managers have at least one guy who's questionable. What do we do with Joe Burrow and Aaron Jones? (Again, my opponent has both.) Are Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds trustworthy? Isiah Pacheco and D.K. Metcalf should suit up. But does that mean they're must-start options? And what about Christian Watson, or fantasy hero Puka Nacua?
It's all about risk tolerance. A good research project would be to analyze the fantasy production of all questionable players who play, compared to how they perform that season with no injury tags. Occasionally, a player will serve as a decoy of sorts. But anecdotally, I believe that's rare, reserved for elite receivers who probably shouldn't be out there, but who can draw enough defensive attention to help elevate their teammates. It might happen a small handful of times per year, if that.
So if your questionable player is starting, I believe there's a good chance they'll be a full go.
For recommended DFS 50/50 DraftKings lineups, my 1:00pm Eastern slate -- as always -- went through a lot of revisions. I've finally settled on a hedge-based lineup with (hopefully) a high probability of hitting: Kirk Cousins, James Cook, Travis Etienne, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Braxton Berrios, Evan Engram, River Cracraft, Jets DST.
I know, it seems ridiculous to start Berrios and Cracraft. But it's also risky to chase points. This is about what might happen, not about what *has* happened. With Jaylen Waddle sidelined, I'm expecting Denver's Patrick Surtain to at least partially shadow Tyreek Hill. Surtain is regarded as one of the NFL's top shut-down corners.
Berrios and Cracraft are ultra-cheap options. And each should earn 45+ snaps and 5+ targets. At least one should step up. Combined I'm expecting 7+ catches for 85+ yards and one score. Their combined price is the same as Chris Olave's. So that's the thinking behind that decision.
The rest is straight-forward. I'm stacking the Vikings' passing attack versus one of the worst pass defenses. With Zay Jones sidelined, I'm leaning into Engram as a bargain. Cook and Etienne are terrific lead backs. The Jets are cheap and good.
For the 4:00pm Eastern slate, I'm rolling with Patrick Mahomes, Tony Pollard, Kenneth Walker, CeeDee Lamb, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, Jake Ferguson, Adam Thielen, and the Cowboys DST.
Similar approach here, going top-heavy with four elite-upside players. The Moore-Watson hedge assumes a combined 8+ catches for 95+ yards and a score. Together they're priced only $1,000 more than D.K. Metcalf, who's the most expensive WR remaining. Ferguson has strong TD appeal in an uber-plus matchup. And actually, so do the Cowboys DST versus Joshua Dobbs and the Titans.
And while I'm not high on Thielen the rest of the season, I can't envision Andy Dalton (spot-starting for Bryce Young) locking him out. And Thielen's historically exceptional red-zone conversion rate cannot be ignored.
As always, I'm around this morning. And much appreciation to those who give your two cents. Good luck today.