As always on Saturday, let's run through the biggest fantasy storylines I'm following in this week's remaining games:
Browns (-3.5) vs. Titans -- I'm picking Cleveland to win and cover, though it's hard to understand why. They just lost Nick Chubb, and Deshaun Watson has not played like a $250 million quarterback. But Tennessee's secondary is beatable. Last year the Titans surrendered the league's most passing yards. This year they're better, but not better enough. Still, I'm more interested in seeing how Jerome Ford runs alongside Kareem Hunt. The ramifications are obviously huge. And for Tennessee, Derrick Henry is coming off a 28-touch performance. Unless they plan to trade him, I don't see a scenario where they run him into the ground. Will Tyjae Spears' role expand?
Lions (-3) vs. Falcons -- Detroit should take this one, though I understand why some are betting on Atlanta. I'm betting on a breakout game for Jahmyr Gibbs, in what could be (yes, could be) the only time he and Bijan Robinson will go head-to-head in their careers. (Depends on team performance and NFL scheduling, but you get the idea.) If Gibbs isn't turned loose versus a sub-par run defense, and with David Montgomery hobbled, then it doesn't bode well for his near-term value. And for Atlanta, can Desmond Ridder feed Drake London and Kyle Pitts in the same game? Ridder's development (it's coming, people) is an important storyline this week and in the coming weeks.
Packers (-1.5) vs. Saints -- We don't yet know if Aaron Jones and Christian Watson will return, so predicting the outcome is like throwing a dart in the dark. But as always, I believe in Jordan Love, and the Saints have given up an ugly 5.0 yards per carry. This game will tell us a lot about whether Love can remain a top-8 QB, or if he's more of a matchup-based streamer (because the Saints' D is tough through the air). For New Orleans, all eyes should be on Kendre Miller. He showed us very little this preseason. I don't quite understand the hype. But the fact is, Jamaal Williams tanked when healthy. Now that he's hurt, Miller has one week (before Alvin Kamara's return) to certifiably prove he belongs in the rotation.
Dolphins (-6.5) vs. Broncos -- Miami has looked better than I expected, so apologies for missing the boat. Raheem Mostert is the biggest surprise (for me). Congrats to those who invested in him. I still don't trust him. But in a thin backfield, he's the fantasy X-factor in this contest. For Denver, Javonte Williams has a solid 31 touches through two games. He's #5 in rushing yards after first contact. Despite a sub-par YPC, he appears to be "back." The question is whether he'll earn bell-cow usage.
Vikings (-1) vs. Chargers -- Two somewhat surprisingly winless teams. The loser will be in trouble, obviously. With Austin Ekeler still out, I'm leaning toward Minnesota. Put the over/under on points scored at 62 (the actual line is 54). For the Vikings, how will the backfield shake out? With the newly acquired Cam Akers expected to be inactive while he learns the playbook, Ty Chandler could cut into Alexander Mattison's workload, setting up a fascinating (or frustrating) Week 4 situation. And for L.A., I went all in on Justin Herbert this summer as the NFL's first 6,000-yard passer. He's on pace for (checks calculator) 4,539. He'll need about 500 yards Sunday to get back on track. Believe it or not, I'm comfortable banking on 375+.
Jets (+2.5) vs. Patriots -- Taking the Jets to cover and win outright, thanks to an elite defense that should match up well against New England's weak receivers. Can Rhamondre Stevenson get on track? The volume is there (37 touches, including nine catches). But he's averaging only 0.4 yards after first contact. For perspective, he averaged a solid 2.3 entering this season. 0.4 looks like an outlier, though it's surely a function of defenses forcing Mac Jones to win through the air. And for New York, once again, can we trust Garrett Wilson? I still view him as a TD-or-bust WR until/unless the Jets upgrade at QB . . . or until/unless Zach Wilson becomes what this franchise believed he would become when they drafted him.
Commanders (+6.5) vs. Bills -- Buffalo should win this one. Washington narrowly beat the Cards and Broncos. Sunday's contest is entirely different. But I expect the Commanders to move the ball well, and Brian Robinson is the biggest wild card. Is he a weekly fantasy starter in Year 2, or is he about to be exposed? Keep in mind, Buffalo's yielding 5.3 yards per carry. Robinson should be set up nicely if he continues to log workhorse touches. And for the Bills, I'm eyeing one of my favorite preseason WR bargains, Gabe Davis. Massive bust-out potential.
Jaguars (-8.5) vs. Texans -- In their last 10 meetings, the Jags have won only once: on New Year's Day earlier this year. I'm betting they'll win by 18+ tomorrow. Houston's missing some of their top guys in the secondary. Trevor Lawrence has had a quiet start to the season. I believe he'll collect four scores in this one. If he doesn't dominate, then it might be time to get a little nervous. And for Houston, C.J. Stroud is on pace for 774 throws, which would be an all-time single-season record. Ain't gonna happen. Despite Dameon Pierce's struggles, and despite the touch matchup, the young RB should get plenty of opportunities in the first half to establish the run. Pierce is an interesting buy-low running back in deeper leagues.
Colts (+8.5) at Ravens -- Baltimore should win by about a touchdown, but I'm taking Indy to cover. Gardner Minshew has the skills and surrounding talent to keep this game competitive. I'm very interested in seeing whether Josh Downs continues to make strides as a potential rest-of-season #2 WR for the Colts. And for the Ravens, with OBJ out (no surprise), can Zay Flowers establish himself as a no-brainer weekly fantasy starter?
Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Panthers -- Geno Smith vs. Andy Dalton. The first (and only?) time they faced off was in Geno's rookie campaign 10 years ago. Dalton threw for five scores. Marvin Jones caught four of them. Those three guys should go grab dinner and reminisce after the game. But first, will Jaxon Smith-Njigba take another step forward? And for Carolina, when the final whistle sounds, will 10-team-leaguers feel compelled to consider dropping Miles Sanders?
Chiefs (-12.5) vs. Bears -- It's hard to imagine Chicago keeping this one close, though with Justin Fields, anything is possible. Fields is one of the biggest wild cards in fantasy. He's currently the QB20, but he possesses top-five upside -- or at least, he's supposed to. Which Fields will show up? And for K.C., we're still waiting to see which WR, if any, steps up as Patrick Mahomes' regular #1 target.
Cowboys (-12.5) at Cardinals -- Not a fan of big point spreads on the road, but will make an exception here. Dallas looks locked in. Who will be Dak Prescott's #2 target after CeeDee Lamb, and will it matter for fantasy? For Arizona, Marquise Brown seems like a candidate to be traded, or to endure some type of injury that keeps him out of the fantasy playoffs. I often try to sell stars high when they're on teams going nowhere.
Raiders (-2.5) vs. Steelers -- Jakobi Meyers is expected to return, and for fantasy purposes, I'm paying close attention to Josh Jacobs. If he comes up big, I strong suggest selling high. If he doesn't, then hopefully it's not too late to sell medium-high. For Pittsburgh, as discussed earlier this week, Jaylen Warren has seemingly replaced Najee Harris through the air. So although Harris is running better on the ground, he's not earning PPR love. Will this trend continue?
Eagles (-4.5) at Buccaneers -- I'm a sucker for Philly this year, still (wildly?) believing they'll go undefeated. Injuries on defense haven't helped their case. Fantasy-wise, how will their backfield shake out? Kenneth Gainwell likely will return. Hot-hand, or is D'Andre Swift the 1A, even if he struggles on the opening drive?
Bengals (-2.5) vs. Rams -- As strange as it sounds, the Rams could put Cincy in an unlikely 0-3 hole. Joe Borrow could be less than 100% for weeks, if not months. But as long as Burrow's out there, he and his receivers are the big fantasy story. Either they get it done like they have the best couple years, or they'll be in a heap of trouble. For L.A., Puka Nacua. It's all about the rookie. Yes, Kyren Williams is a fascinating development. But I want to see if Nacua's fantasy outburst is at all sustainable. As you know, I'm betting he'll be a non-top-16 WR the rest of the way.