Last night's contests featured three former #1 overall QB draft picks and last year's #1 fantasy QB in points per game. All four generate challenges and opportunities for their respective teams. Let's take a closer look.
The Bucs' first two opponents were the winless Vikings and winless Bears. While it's still very early in the season, both of those opponents have exhibited bottom-of-the-barrel defenses. So through two games, Baker Mayfield looked quite capable, Mike Evans looked elite, and Rachaad White displayed enough usage to merit weekly-starter consideration.
Philly is the first of many tough D's Tampa Bay will face. The Saints and underrated Lions are on deck. Soon after, the Bills and underrated Texans (when healthy). Then the Titans' stout run defense and the 49ers' all-around great defense.
I'm not anticipating fantasy joy for managers who remain invested in the Bucs. Yes, Evans and/or Godwin will produce each week, because that how's this team is built. And hopefully White's usage in the passing game will keep him relevant, even if he continues to churn less than 3.0 yards per carry. But despite what we saw the first two weeks, this is a sub-par, top-heavy offense that should frequently struggle against top-half league defenses. In my view, it's a terrific time to sell high on the 30-year-old Evans if you can secure top-10 WR value for him -- and I say that as someone who's pushed Evans as a bargain pretty much every summer since his rookie year.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are still on track for a 17-0 season. I'm half-joking, because while I made that prediction in July, it's clear that their passing attack isn't (yet?) in sync. More often than not, Jalen Hurts has been able to feed only one receiver per game. Last night it was A.J. Brown's turn after the start wideout was left out in the cold in Week 2. My bullish preseason rankings for these Eagles assumed Hurts' continued development. It hasn't happened.
As a result, Dallas Goedert has taken a step back, while Brown and DeVonta Smith have surprisingly low floors. Four of their next five matchups are against beatable D's. We'll see if they can capitalize. I still believe they can, and will.
On the ground, D'Andre Swift is running behind the best offensive line of his career, and it shows. My o-line research doesn't take into account RBs moving from one team to another, but it should. Swift and former Eagle Miles Sanders are Exhibit A examples of why talent along isn't enough. In the wrong situation, a great RB might scuffle. In the right situation, a middling RB might shine.
Now, Swift is no "middling" RB, which is why he's averaging an ungodly 6.8 yards per carry. While his receptions have declined since his days in Detroit, it hasn't yet mattered. However, at the risk of nit-picking, be a bit wary of his dramatically reduced targets and notable injury history: three missed games in each of the last three seasons, plus some contests where he clearly wasn't close to 100%. I drafted Swift and Gainwell and am all in on this pairing. But for the right price, I'd happily cash out on both to secure a more durable top-10 back.
In the later game, those who invested in Bengals have to be as worried as ever. Yes, Ja'Marr Chase came through. Huzzah. But Joe Burrow's calf injury could linger for weeks. He needed to make 49 throws, and connected on only 53% -- the third-lowest mark of his career. Chase benefited with 15 targets, as well as Tee Higgins exiting early.
From where I'm sitting, until Burrow can regain his mobility, he probably won't be able to adequately feed more than one receiver per game. Last night was Chase's turn. If Higgins has to miss time, of course Chase becomes the uber-focal point. If Higgins is fine, then things get a little dicey. The good news is that their next three opponents are the Titans, Seahawks, and Cardinals. Tennessee and Seattle have bottom-tier pass D's, while the enigmatic Cards could go either way, but should be a positive matchup. Here's hoping Burrow can get close to 100% before the schedule gets much tougher.
On the ground, I wrote last year and again this summer about Joe Mixon's pivot toward inefficient running. He's now sitting on 4.0 YPC, which isn't bad, and his TD run last night showed his burst and cut abilities remain on point. The big question is how many TD opportunities he'll get if this offense continues to stall while Burrow's on the mend. For now, volume is his friend.
Finally, the Rams returned to Earth. Matthew Stafford looked more like his 2022 self than his 2021 self, and his offensive line didn't help. We might put the brakes on the Kyren Williams phenomenon, with the understanding that impending negative game scripts could stymie his ceiling, rendering him no more than a fringe streamer.
And Cincy's defense learned from other teams' mistakes, doing their best to keep the ball out of Puka Nacua's hands and forcing the rest of the Rams' offense to step up. It worked, barely. But it worked. I dedicated a full column last Wednesday to Nacua's rest-of-season prospects, and why he was a huge sell-high WR. I get that it's sometimes hard to "sell high," especially in leagues where trading is like Bigfoot sightings. (Lots of talk, but where's the proof?)
At the same time, I've found that trading gets easier when I demand far less than I want. I'm always going for a 51%+ advantage. Nothing fancy. The tiniest edge is fine. I advised that Nacua wouldn't be a top-16 WR the rest of the season. If he were on my team, I would have been content to part ways for a more reliable top-20 WR. Given the hype on Nacua entering Week 3, that would have been doable, especially when trading with a winless manager who saw Nacua as a ticket to short-term victories.
I've pushed Tutu Atwell for more than a year. The former second-round pick, I believe, will have a more productive career than Nacua. Of course, we'll see what happens. For now, consider that five of the Rams' next six opponents are @Colts, Eagles, Steelers, @Cowboys, and @Packers. How excited should managers feel about starting L.A. players during this stretch? It's not too late to cut bait.
On a side note, per my Saturday column, I hit the point spread and winner on both games last night, pushing my Week 3 tally to 9-7 for spreads and 10-6 for winners. Still not where I want to be, but better than the first two weeks. I'll try again Saturday, hopefully with better-than-market-value results.