At its best, this page is a step ahead more often than a step behind. What I mean is, for every big miss (like whiffing on Jakobi Meyers or ignoring Puka Nacua), there are plenty of big hits. While it's been only one week, we can already see rising market values for guys this page pushed repeatedly this preseason.
On site after site, I'm reading why managers "must" pick up Jordan Love, Tyler Allgeier, Joshua Kelley, Roschon Johnson, Tyjae Spears, Nico Collins, Rashid Shaheed, etc. Of the guys I just listed, as subscribers know all too well, Kelley was a tiny bargain on my draft board, and every other player was a massive bargain (multiple rounds ahead of their ADP).
Honestly, this is not intended to be a "Look how accurate I am through Week 1!" column. But I committed to writing an article about waiver targets today. It's 6:12am, and I'm still wondering how I can write this. Because nearly every waiver target is either (a) too obvious to mention, or (b) someone I pushed publicly and privately all summer.
There's nothing new or interesting in that kind of post. So for the next two or three minutes, let's run through players I'm recommending you drop or *not* drop. Pursuing points and/or talent is the easy part. Deciding which "good" player you're prepared to give up on -- at least for now -- is a tougher call.
At QB, let's bypass the obvious. We're keeping the underperforming near-elites and elites. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow scored nine points or less. I was way down on Jackson this summer (overall 67 ranking vs. overall 34 ADP), but I get that he's a cornerstone QB on many rosters. We'll see if he can return to greatness. I still have my doubts.
Elsewhere, Dak Prescott and Daniel Jones both struggled, but in entirely different ways. Dak was a tiny bargain on my rankings, while Jones was a big fade. Dak's underwhelming performance was due almost entirely to game script. In my view, he's still a rock-solid top-12 QB. There's no compelling reason to drop him.
But Jones is in a different category. And while we can't fully understand his 2023 potential after only one game, I remain skeptical. He was middling-to-terrible in his first three seasons. Then he blew up in a contract year (granted with a new head coach who knew how to deploy him). But opposing teams have had months to figure out how to beat him. Dallas pulled it off flawlessly. Jones was not in my preseason top 14, and I don't see him finishing in the top 14. Therefore, in nearly every league, you'll probably find a higher-upside streamer or backup.
At RB, Deon Jackson and Jamaal Williams were teed up for success in Week 1. Both flopped. While Williams remains a hold with Alvin Kamara out two more games, be prepared to ditch Jackson for a good RB handcuff if Zack Moss returns. Or if you have enough RBs, ditch Jackson immediately. A career sub-3.0 yards-per-carry mark and two turnovers last week . . . it's too much to ignore. Jackson's PPR upside brings appeal. Everything else brings disappointment.
In deeper leagues, D'Onta Foreman appears to be the #3 RB in Chicago, making him a solid drop in favor of a handcuff, or to fill another roster hole. But I'm not giving up on Antonio Gibson yet. He's a better version of Deon Jackson, and with a more robust track record. Give him at least two more weeks to outplay rookie Chris Rodriguez and maintain a glorified handcuff role.
At WR, Van Jefferson is probably droppable. I pushed him last week as the Rams' #1 with Cooper Kupp sidelined, and I was completely wrong. Even drafted him. Ugh. Had he shown more earlier in his career, I'd hesitate. But he appears to be similar to K.J. Osborn: good enough to be on the field, but not good enough to support fantasy managers' expensive lifestyles.
On the flip side, Gabe Davis and Treylon Burks remain firm holds. Both are #2 WRs on their respective teams, and both possess the talent to post big games. But if you heeded my warnings about Carolina's receiving corps, you probably know that Adam Thielen & company were not draftable, and all of them should be dropped in most leagues. Jonathan Mingo is the only deep-league hold, simply because I envision him and Bryce Young gelling as the season progresses. And when Thielen and/or D.J. Chark and/or Terrace Marshall inevitably get hurt, Mingo should get enough attention to be viable.
At TE, Dawson Knox is droppable in very deep leagues. Rookie Dalton Kincaid went toe-to-toe with the veteran in Week 1, and I expect Kincaid's role to grow. David Njoku is also droppable. He was one of the biggest TE fades in my preseason rankings. In July I explained why. Unless Cleveland's WR corps is hit with multiple injuries, Njoku is one of 15+ TD-dependent tight ends you can find on waivers most weeks.
And on a side note, while this surely will be controversial, be prepared for the strong possibility of dropping Darren Waller this season. I ranked him 60 spots below his ADP. As shared this summer and last summer, he's an above-average injury risk still operating in the afterglow of stellar back-to-back campaigns in 2019 and 2020. Today he turned 31 years old. He's a good bet to miss time this season. And at that point, managers will have to make a seemingly tough decision. While it's still early, it's not too early to consider how many games he'd need to miss for you to decide you've had enough.