There are probably dozens of takeaways from last night's contest, and some of them contradict each other. As we assess continually shifting fantasy values for 10 or more players, let's try to make sense of it all.
The Eagles' passing attack is an issue. Some of you predicted it, and kudos to you for identifying it. I had thought an offseason shift in offensive coordinators wouldn't detract from an aerial game that appeared to be ascending. Philly promoted their quarterbacks coach, Brian Johnson, to the OC role. Remember, only two years ago many wondered if Hurts was even the answer for this franchise. Johnson played a meaningful part in Hurts' rapid development.
But through two games, Hurts has taken a step back. He's still not an above-average NFL passer. And despite a mammoth 3.0 seconds per pass attempt (the sixth-most time to throw in the league), and despite possessing an elite receiving corps, he's leaving points on the board. Last night's underthrown would-be TD pass to DeVonta Smith early on was one of many examples.
And yet, we can also see this another way. Hurts took two goal-line carries into the end zone -- a promising sign in light of an arguably more dynamic backfield. Hurts rushed for 23 scores the last two seasons. He's well on his way to 10+. And despite the somewhat sloppy performance, he tallied 25.2 fantasy points. Hurts will be fine.
So the challenge is whether he can still feed his three top pass-catchers. Last year he did. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were near-elite, and Dallas Goedert was the TE5 in points per game. I pushed all summer that drafting -- for example -- Brown-Hurts-DeVonta in rounds 1-3 was a sound strategy. I wrote, "Go all in on the Eagles' passing game" week after week, publicly and privately.
So what's happening? Week 1, Brown and DeVonta did fine. Last night, DeVonta stole the show, Goedert was barely adequate while getting peppered with targets, and Brown had a TD reception called back on a penalty. There was a clear path for all three to be fantasy startable. Instead, it was DeVonta's night. Again, all three will be fine. Yes, I truly believe that. This is a superb time to buy low on Brown (if possible). And if you don't have a top-10 TE, this is an ideal time to buy low on Goedert.
In the backfield, what can be said that isn't staring us in the face? D'Andre Swift had a career night. He was sitting on my bench. I urged several of you not to trust him. On Sunday, Minnesota bottled up Tampa's Bay's RB corps, yielding only 62 yards on 25 carries. Then Swift -- who's received more than 16 carries only once in his career -- produces a 28-175-1 line. His success took pressure off Hurts, and by extension, capped his receivers' outputs. Swift was the MVP, and it came at a cost for some of his teammates.
Now, I drafted Swift and Gainwell. So if you're like me, last night was great news (despite the deep regret I'll have if I lose this week by 15 points or less). Rashaad Penny and Boston Scott are afterthoughts, plain and simple. And while we don't know what will happen when Gainwell returns, the most likely scenario is 25-30 combined touches, where the Eagles use a hot-hand approach each week. This means if you don't have a sure-fire top-20 RB elsewhere, starting Swift and Gainwell in your two RB slots could pay big dividends. It's the kind of hedge that RB-desperate managers can lean into.
For the Vikings, they were superb through the air. I predicted 45+ pass attempts for Kirk Cousins, and he finished with 43. I trusted Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, and they both came through, obviously (and we'll sidestep Jefferson's end-zone fumble, which was the big momentum-shifter). I did not anticipate K.J. Osborn being fantasy-relevant, and I cautioned managers that Jordan Addison would be boom-bust.
Interestingly, Addison was fifth on the team in targets. But for the second straight week, one big play was the difference between benching him and starting him. Some players are built that way. Addison is a pretty diminutive 175 points, and he has very good speed. Nowhere near elite, but he finds his moments, and he and Cousins have developed a solid rapport. Still, until his target share improves, he'll remain boom-bust. Congrats to those who drafted and started him, and be wary of the risks for a rookie who's collected 75% of his fantasy points on two plays.
On a side note, I drafted #10 in a 14-team league. My first four picks were CeeDee, DeVonta, Justin Herbert, and Hockenson. In the fourth round, I faced a dilemma: go with a remaining starting RB like James Cook or Kenneth Walker, or take a guy I ranked as the #2 TE. It was probably the toughest decision I had to make in the entire draft. Last night justified why that pick made sense. We'll see if it holds all season. For now, Hock is on pace for 300+ fantasy points. At 26 years old, and in an offense that views him as a primary target after Jefferson, there are no obvious signs of him slowing down.
And on the ground, I discussed earlier this week that Alexander Mattison's dismal Week 1 showing was a worst-case scenario for a guy whose value hinged on a strong start. Admittedly, I was bullish about him this summer. He was seemingly destined for 225+ touches in a thin backfield. But now there's a problem. The Vikes are winless, and Mattison has struggled. He gets the Chargers and Panthers next, before things get much tougher again.
If you have Mattison, I would advise adding Ty Chandler as quickly as humanly possible -- or trading away Mattison for as close to draft-day value as possible. Yes, Mattison could turn things around. But I don't think Minnesota will remain overly patient. The starter (for now) signed a modest two-year extension this offseason. This franchise won't lose much if they decide to give Chandler -- or even rookie DeWayne McBride -- more run.
Essentially, this backfield could get muddied in a hurry. Mattison's status as a volume-assured RB is hanging by a thread.
And now, who picked the closest final score? Thought I had a chance when Philly led 27-7 (I predicted 40-16). Thought I was in good company when people like Larry Damron and Nick Kishbaugh also predicted a blowout. Meanwhile, Larry Daze came incredibly close (34-30)
Instead, the ultimate winner -- one of my favorite people on this page -- is Suminder Singh Puri, who predicted a 33-28 Eagles victory. Only one point off. If only Jake Elliott had missed an extra point. Not that I wish ill on kickers. But let's be honest: Elliott's job still would have been secure, and Suminder could have struck gold with a perfect prediction. A win-win!
Hats off to Suminder for winning this week. I've added him to the big board, so that his name will always be synonymous with greatness.