Ran a bunch of numbers last night. Will come back to this in the coming week. But for now, if you can take away anything from today's column, please take away this:
In the five seasons from 2013 thru 2017, RBs netted 25+ touches in a game 401 times, or an average of 80.2 times per season. From 2018 thru 2022, RBs netted 25+ touches in a game 316 times, or an average of 63.2 times per season.
This should be obvious to most/all of you. The data simply reinforces what we already assume -- that the bell-cow era has been fading for years.
But . . . we can dig deeper (we can always dig deeper). Last night I compared this trend to some other research I've been working on the past couple years. Again, I'll get into this more on Tuesday or Wednesday. For now, understand this: From 2013 thru 2017, among all RBs who were scheduled to play on Thursday, 31 (or an average of 6.2 per year) netted 25+ touches that previous Sunday. But from 2018 thru 2022, only 17 (3.4 average) did the same.
Sunday-to-Thursday RBs also have experienced fewer 20+ touch Sunday performances: 13.2 per year from 2013 thru 2017, down to 9.0 from 2018 thru 2022. Even 15+ touch Sunday performances (again, when RBs are scheduled to play four days later) have declined -- from 24.0 per year (2013-2017) to 20.0 per year (2018-2022).
Who's playing this coming Thursday? The Niners and Giants. CMC versus Saquon Barkley.
Watch for Matt Breida and/or Gary Brightwell to mix in a bit more today against the Cardinals. The same goes for Elijah Mitchell in San Francisco. In fact, I'd bet on Mitchell (provided he stays healthy) securing 9+ touches, making him a strong deep-league streamer for those who are desperate for RB help.
No doubt, CMC and Barkley remain must-starts. The data offers guidance based on historical outcomes. But it doesn't mean we overreact. Even if they get "only" 16-18 touches, CMC and Barkley can still produce big numbers. That said, be mindful that both are playing again in four days. NFL trends suggest coaches are increasingly aware of the need to limit their starting running back's usage either on Sunday or Thursday. The 49ers' seemingly favorable matchup versus the Rams opens the door for a lighter-than-usual workload for McCaffrey.
As for DFS 50/50 lineups, I went only 1-2 last weekend -- though the one win also hit in the money in tournament play, finishing in the(top 10%). For the 1pm Eastern games, I'm recommending Josh Allen, A.J. Dillon, Joshua Kelley, Stefon Diggs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Treylon Burks, Sam LaPorta, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and the Bills DST. Coming off a rough loss last weekend, I Buffalo will handle the Raiders fairly easily, which is why I'm starting three Bills. I'm also hedging two Lions and two Titans versus beatable secondaries. This assumes DeAndre Hopkins will be out or limited. Of course, I have no idea at this point (it's Saturday night). Oh, and I'm not confident about Joshua Kelley against a tough Tennessee run D. Thought about Zack Moss for $300 less. But am rolling with Kelley in the hope he gets enough receptions to bring value.
For the 4pm Eastern games, I've got two recommended lineups. The first ignores my research above: Brock Purdy, CMC, Barkley, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Josh Dotson, Adam Trautman, Curtis Samuel, and the Cowboys DST. The second lineup consists of Purdy, Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Deebo, Aiyuk, CeeDee Lamb, George Kittle, Puka Nacua (or the slightly cheaper Tutu Atwell if Nacua sits), and the Cowboys. The Denver hedge assumes 23+ fantasy points between the two, and the lineup also assumes Purdy throws it more than usual.
As always, good luck today.
Last week's against-the-spread predictions were, quite simply, awful. I went 5-11 Embarrassing. My cats won't look at me, though in fairness, that's been happening for years.
But since this is a fantasy page, we'll focus on the fantasy side. And along the way, for those interested (and who want to roll the dice on my picks), here are more point-spread predictions.