Last week's against-the-spread predictions were, quite simply, awful. I went 5-11 Embarrassing. My cats won't look at me, though in fairness, that's been happening for years.
But since this is a fantasy page, we'll focus on the fantasy side. And along the way, for those interested (and who want to roll the dice on my picks), here are more point-spread predictions.
Falcons (-1.5) vs. Falcons -- As always, we don't know everyone who's starting on Sunday. If the questionable Aaron Jones sits, it'll be a downgrade for Green Bay's backfield. But of course, it would be a boon for A.J. Dillon, who could handle 20+ touches. Fortunately, it's a 1pm Eastern game, so fantasy managers with Jones and/or Dillon will know what to do. The same confusion resides with the receiving corps, as Christian Watson is also questionable. I believe Jordan Love will be fine either way. But if Watson starts, I'd be hard-pressed to bet on Love feeding him *and* Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed. Perhaps one will hit double-digits. For Atlanta, Bijan Robinson and even Tyler Allgeier seem like obvious plays. The concern for Drake London is whether he gets Jaire Alexander, who helped keep D.J. Moore in check last weekend. I'm comfortable starting Kyle Pitts as a top-12 TE. We'll probably need to wait until Week 3 for a London breakout (relatively speaking).
Bills (-8.5) vs. Raiders -- Buffalo should roll in this one, especially after their shocking defeat on the road against the Jets. Vegas exceeded expectations against Denver, but they're down some key guys on offense and defense, including Jakobi Meyers. For the Raiders, Davante Adams is the only reliable starter, and yes, I'm still down (as always) on Josh Jacobs. If this game gets out of hand by halftime (quite possible), we might see a lot of Zamir White by the third quarter. Jacobs is a risky top-20 RB. For the Bills, fire up the "Big Four" of Josh Allen, James Cook, Stefon Diggs, and yes, Gabe Davis. I'm also betting that Dalton Kincaid hits 10+ points. The Bills are developing him to be an offensive mismatch ahead of what they hope will be a deep postseason run.
Bengals (-3.5) vs. Ravens -- Who will step up in Baltimore's backfield? I'm not trusting any of them on the road versus Cincy. Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews are the only must-starts, and Trey Flowers *ideally* builds on his breakout debut. But things get dicey after that. For the Bengals, I'm all in on their "Big Four": Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon. Keep in mind, I'm still down on Mixon on the whole, so in your shoes, I'd sell high. That said, he should see plenty of action tomorrow.
Lions (-4.5) vs. Seahawks -- Bring on Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta. I get why some are hyping Seattle's defense. And yet, they are exposable. Detroit arguably is better on both sides of the ball, and probably will win by double-digits. For the Seahawks, Kenneth Walker is startable for volume, and D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett presumably cannot be benched. But I'd fade everyone else, including 2022 hero Geno Smith, who played his heart out after years of waiting for a second chance. The problem is that his offensive line is already in trouble.
Chargers (+2.5) at Titans -- I'm taking the underdog Chargers to win outright, even if they don't have Austin Ekeler (questionable). Obviously, Joshua Kelley is a must-start if Ekeler sits. Not as obviously, I'd sit Kelley if Ekeler plays. The Titans have a good run D, and I don't want to depend on Kelley to replicate his Week 1 numbers. Through the air, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams are full go's against a beatable Titans secondary. For Tennessee, the risk is if this becomes a blowout, especially if DeAndre Hopkins (questionable) can't play. Derrick Henry could be phased out. Or, the team could put everything on his back. Since I still -- yes, still -- believe Tennessee will trade Henry before this year's deadline, I don't think they'll overwork him. He's a "safe" starter, but be wary if the Titans fall to 0-2. It might increase pressure on the Titans to find a trade partner by October. Oh, and Treylon Burks should be a must-start if Hopkins sits.
Bears (+2.5) at Buccaneers -- Another minor upset, as Justin Fields and D.J. Moore connect early and often. I'm expecting 11+ targets for the new-ish Bear. Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet remain fringe options. This will be a statement game for Chicago's two best playmakers. In the backfield, it's too confusing. This summer, I pushed Roschon Johnson as the best of the bunch for the full season. Nothing has changed, but it's too soon to trust him or anyone else. For Tampa Bay, it's still Mike-Evans-and-Chris-Godwin-or-bust. I'm not touching the backfield, even though Rachaad White or Sean Tucker should hit 9+ points. Still, it's a risky hot-hand situation. And Cade Otton is a 14-team-league streamer.
Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Chiefs -- The Jags have lost seven straight versus K.C. That trend should change on Sunday. Their last victory pitted David Garrard and Mike Sims-Walker against Matt Cassell and Chris Chambers. So yeah, it's been a while. Specifically, Jacksonville lost both matchups last season. But both were on the road, and they fell by only 10 and seven points, respectively. The Jags got better this offseason. The Chiefs . . . probably didn't. I'm betting on a 20+ fantasy-point performance for Trevor Lawrence, with Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne doing what they do best. Interestingly, I'm all in on Christian Kirk, who should get more attention in Week 2. Meanwhile, Zay Jones is a fantastic deep-league flyer, and Evan Engram is a borderline must-start. For Kansas City, only Patrick Mahomes and a healthy Travis Kelce can be sure things. There's not enough predictability (yet) in their wideout corps. And I'd trust Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon as fringe streamers only if CEH (questionable) is inactive.
Colts (+1) at Texans -- A tough call, but I'm betting on Anthony Richardson outplaying Matt Stroud. Richardson has better receivers, and quite simply is too good on the ground to ignore. He's a must-start. Michael Pittman should finish in the top 25. Josh Downs is a decent flyer. And if Zack Moss is good to go, it'll make it difficult to trust him or Deon Jackson. Both would be almost entirely TD-dependent. For Houston, Dameon Pierce is in the Pacheco camp: a presumed double-digit-touch RB with a capped ceiling. Nico Collins is an okay streamer. I don't trust anyone else.
49ers (-7.5) at Rams -- Are the Rams for real? If they lose by a touchdown or less, yes. San Francisco looks poised for a return to the NFC Championship game. Puka Nacua currently is questionable. If he sits, then Tutu Atwell and Tyler Higbee would be the only sort-of starter-worthy Rams I'd consider. Not a huge endorsement. I think the Niners will sack Matthew Stafford 5+ times. It'll be hard to generate long drives. The Rams' backfield is (to me) untouchable in this one. For the Niners, all the usual big names are startable, clearly. That said, my preseason warnings about George Kittle remain in effect. Sell high if you can.
Giants (-4) at Cardinals -- A potentially painful contest. I'm picking the Giants because Saquon Barkley is the most talented playmaker in this one, and he could see 25+ touches. He's the only must-start on either side of the ball. I'm willing to bet on Daniel Jones in Superflex leagues, because compared to last weekend, he should have more room to navigate and more passing lanes to target. For the Cards, James Conner is another sell-high guy. Arizona's going nowhere, and Conner -- despite his somewhat generous contract -- is no lock to stick around before the trade deadline.
Cowboys (-9) vs. Jets -- After witnessing what Dallas did to the Giants, I'm hard-pressed to fade them against one of the league's best defenses. Because the Jets' offense is in red-alert mode. Dalvin Cook probably will out-touch Breece Hall, but Hall should comfortably outperform his backfield teammate in points-per-touch. Both are incredibly risky this weekend. Garrett Wilson is the only Jet I'd start, and even then, I doubt he exceeds five catches for 45 yards. As for Dallas, Brandin Cooks is questionable. The "Big Three" of Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, and CeeDee Lamb should get their yards. But could Michael Gallup step up if Cooks sits? My sense is "no," at least not in this tough matchup.
Commanders (+3.5) at Broncos -- I'm picking Denver to win by a field goal or less. If Washington plays turnover-free, they can grind out a contest featuring fewer-than-normal possessions. Brian Robinson has become the king of the three-yard run, and Antonio Gibson should snap back. The rest is up to Sam Howell and his above-average receiving corps. I'm comfortable starting Jahan Dotson, as well as Curtis Samuel in deep leagues. Denver's Patrick Surtain might be the league's best cornerback. If he shadows Terry McLaurin, it could be a rough day for Washington's veteran wideout. As for Denver, ugh. Too many options, and not enough offensive pop. Javonte Williams has the highest RB ceiling, and Courtland Sutton probably has the highest WR ceiling. But I doubt anyone exceeds 70 yards.
Patriots (+3) vs. Dolphins -- Another hedge. I'm picking Miami to win by a field goal or less, and am willing to bet on the Patriots based on the point spread. This should be a fierce Sunday night battle. Beware of starting Raheem Mostert, who needs plenty of receptions to earn streaming value. And beware of Zeke Elliott, who lost a fumble last week and (let's be candid) was targeted by zero NFL teams for most of the summer. Rhamondre Stevenson should snap back (buy low while you can), and Mac Jones should net 18+ points. Back to Miami: Tua, Tyreek, and Jaylen Waddle are obvious must-starts. But be prepared for the Patriots to mount at least a couple of eight-minute drives as they focus on keeping the Fins' offense off the field.