For the second straight year, the defending Super Bowl champs go down at home on the NFL's opening night. Last season, the aged and weakened Rams were blitzed (literally and figuratively by a hungry Bills team with eyes on their first title. This season, the still-youthful Chiefs came undone against a Lions team seeking *their* first title.
There are so many ways to dissect last night's contest. And because this is a fantasy blog, I want to focus entirely on fantasy implications.
For Kansas City, I whiffed on the receiving corps, but the backfield played out as expected. Through the air, Skyy Moore couldn't have played worse, though if he had, he might have looked like Kadarius Toney. It's inconceivable that this was a fluke. Yes, the Lions' vastly underrated D deserves credit (more on that in a moment). But let's be clear here: Can any of you remember a time when a team's top two wideouts combined for one catch for one yard on eight targets?
Toney missed time this preseason -- and frankly, he's missed a lot of time in his 2+ NFL campaigns. And Skyy earned half as many targets per game as Mecole Hardman. Both Toney and Skyy entered 2023 with plenty of hype, and I bought into the hype. Their draft capital, combined with the Chiefs' decision not to add an alpha or even a beta wideout in free agency, suggested these WRs were primed for breakouts, or at least top-40 numbers.
K.C. won't be patient, because that's not how this franchise is built. With Travis Kelce questionable for Week 2, we might see Rashee Rice play a larger role next weekend. Or the Chiefs might make a dramatic signing or trade (probably not, but still . . .). Three of their next four contests are on the road versus the Jaguars, Jets, and Vikings. All winnable games, and all losable games. It'll be interesting to see what adjustments they make, with or without Kelce.
As for their backfield, this was what I warned about yesterday, and really all summer. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is more valuable than his overall-220 ADP suggests, and Isiah Pacheco is barely worth his overall-72 ADP. And I stand by my continued warnings about the 31-year-old Jerick McKinnon, who netted only one touch (on two targets) despite a relatively healthy 31% snap count, coming in between Pacheco (47% snap count) and CEH (23%). If you're starting McKinnon, you're hoping he once again dominates through the air. But if yesterday is any indication, Pacheco has the inside track to lead this RB corps in targets and catches.
As for the victorious Lions, I want to start with their defense. When they traded up to select Brian Branch in April, I wrote a PFN article claiming it might end up being the biggest steal of the draft. Yes, a bit of an exaggeration. Apologies. And yet . . . he shouldn't have fallen that far. Branch symbolized how hard Detroit worked this offseason to beef up all aspects of their defense. This is why I pushed them as an insane bargain at their preseason DST20 ADP. It's why I recommended to some of you that you wait on a DST and then snag them with the final pick. They are legitimately good, and last night reinforced that.
And of course, we'll never know how much more damage K.C. could have done if Kelce had played. But the last time they scored under 20 points at home was 22 months ago versus the 7-2 Cowboys. Looking ahead at Detroit's schedule, they should be top-10 options several times before their Week 9 bye.
Their passing game was pretty cut-and-dry. Jared Goff was good-not-great, which turned out to be just good enough. Amon-Ra St. Brown looked like a fantasy first-rounder. He was my overall 12th-ranked player compared to an overall-20 ADP. And Sam LaPorta's NFL debut was promising. He was my TE11 compared to a TE18 ADP. As with the Chiefs, I'm wondering if Detroit will look long and hard this next week at adding a veteran WR. With Jameson Williams out five more games, and with Goff leaning way too much on 33-year-old Marvin Jones, they need more help, and I don't think Josh Reynolds' outburst is a sign of things to come.
In the backfield, Twitter/X users were outraged that Jahmyr Gibbs frequently took a backseat to David Montgomery. Admittedly, I thought Gibbs would outperform the veteran. And in many respects, he did. But Montgomery got the touchdown and the fantasy love.
This is an ideal time to sell high on Montgomery and buy low on Gibbs. I get it. It's probably not realistic. Anyone who has Gibbs understands that he could take over this backfield by midseason, if not sooner. And I don't think many managers will be clamoring to add Montgomery.
So let's amend this sentiment. If you have Montgomery, this is an ideal time to trade him to whoever has Gibbs. In the same way Bijan Robinson managers should want to add Tyler Allgeier, those with Gibbs should recognize the value of a Montgomery insurance policy. If done right, this could be a win-win swap.
Shifting gears, who got closest to picking the final score? Joe Minney and Tom Windedahl came close, guessing 21-16 and 24-21, respectively -- only four points off. But two others came within three points. The first is the seemingly exceptional Jason Livingston (21-17 Lions). The second is Greg Slack, a longtime community member with a heart of gold (I can only assume) takes the prize after predicting a 23-21 Detroit victory (three points off).
Congratulations to Jason and Greg. Will track all winners on this spreadsheet, using the "Closest Score" tab: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12_t9MdKrS8lNp-rmVyBV609-NZQLUXRTPZS-eYjF8PE.