The Eagles' opener versus the Patriots started as expected. This summer I expressed the belief that Philly will go undefeated. They're arguably better than they were last year, and not just because of key defensive additions. They're youthful offensive core presumably is still ascending. And swapping out Miles Sanders for Rashaad Penny and D'Andre Swift seemed (at the time) to be no worse than net-neutral.
Two of the previous six matchups between Philly and New England were in the Super Bowl. But this was their first matchup in the post-Tom-Brady era. Poor weather added unpredictability. Yet the Eagles looked invincible early on, marching to a 16-0 lead in the first quarter.
Then Mac Jones and the Patriots found their groove, converting two third-and-longs to produce their first score in the second, and their defense stiffened. Fantasy managers who, like me, believed Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert would crush it most weeks began to wonder. Brown had only 16 yards at halftime. Goedert had nothing. Yes, Smith delivered. But this was a muted effort for a supposedly vaunted offense.
With the outcome still in doubt in the fourth quarter, Hurts targeted Brown on four straight plays (two was called back on a penalties). The star receiver eventually got his points. Kenneth Gainwell delivered double-digits. For most teams, producing three fantasy-relevant players in one game would be considered decent. For the Eagles, it was a disappointment.
I'm throwing Week 1 out the window, because I don't believe it accurately reflects what Philadelphia will achieve the rest of the year. And their matchup tonight against Minnesota (I believe) will help prove this. The Vikes are coming off a shocking home loss to the Bucs, in which Baker Mayfield collected only his second 2+ pass TD / zero-interception performance in his last 16 starts.
For all of its obvious limitations, Tampa Bay had a sound game plan, and it worked. Only two QBs averaged less time to throw than Baker did. In other words, he released the ball quickly, He endured only one sack. Minnesota two tallied QB hits tied for the fewest in the league. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin did the rest, as they've often done.
So now the Vikings find themselves on the road after losing a home game they arguably *should* have won, against a better team that barely won a road game they initially dominated. From my perspective, this will be a minor blowout.
I remain all-in on Hurts, Brown, DeVonta, and Goedert. Yes, Goedert will get his points. Too much talent and too good of an offense to ignore. In the backfield, Kenneth Gainwell is out. We can assume Rashaad Penny, D'Andre Swift, and perhaps even Boston Scott will rotate through. I believe Swift will walk away with the most yardage/reception-based fantasy points. The rest hinges on who scores. But if you have multiple Eagles RBs, the only one I'd start as a top-30 running back is Swift.
For the Vikings, I'm fading Alexander Mattison. This is a brutal matchup, plain and simple. The Eagles clamped down on the ground last weekend, limiting Rhamondre Stevenson to a 12-25 line while forcing a Zeke Elliott turnover. As always, Mattison's value is tied to his workhorse status. As long as he's getting touches and TD opportunities, he'll be fine. But I believe game script will mostly push him to the sidelines in the second half.
Through the air, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson should be fine, while Jordan Addison is a wild card. Kirk Cousins probably will throw 45+ times. But he might not connect on more than 50% of those attempts. It's important to remember that Addison equaled K.J. Osborn's target total (six) in Week 1. Cousins completed 75% of his passes against a mostly overmatched Bucs secondary. That won't be replicable tonight. Addison appears to be a boom-bust play, which is a tough decision for fantasy managers this early in the week.
I'm predicting a 40-16 Eagles victory. Leave your prediction below. If you pick the closest score, you will be honored in ways that cannot be fully expressed or appreciated.