And now, finally, game-time. If you're new to this community, here's how the regular season generally breaks down:
- Thursday -- Thursday Night Football Fantasy Preview
- Friday -- Notable Fantasy Implications of Thursday's Game
- Saturday -- Game-by-Game Fantasy Predictions for Sunday's Games
- Sunday -- Recommended DFS Lineup
- Monday -- Notable Fantasy Implications of Sunday's Games
- Tuesday -- Notable Fantasy Implications of Monday's Game(s)
- Wednesday -- Waiver Wednesday (Johnny Green, did you come up with that name years ago?)
I'll try to give my two cents on every question you throw at me, including Sunday mornings. And many people in this community kindly weigh in, too. It's a team effort. We all help each other out. Sometimes you call me out for a ridiculous prediction. Wouldn't want it any other way.
The Saturday and Monday columns might run 1,500 words or more. The rest are generally 600-1,000, depending largely on what's notable, and how far the ramifications might go.
Tonight's opening kickoff feels strange. As of writing this, Travis Kelce remains questionable. Jameson Williams (for what it's worth) is suspended for the first six games. Isiah Pacheco might or might not be the Chiefs' bell cow. Jahmyr Gibbs might or might not be the Lions' starter.
This is the point of the season when coaches and players hold all the cards. The rest of us can only guess. There will be a lot more clarity by Week 3 or 4. In the meantime, anyone who claims to "know" what's going to happen is either a psychic or a benevolent god. So here's what I *believe* will happen, based on a game script that should favor the defending Super Bowl champions.
On offense, as shared previously, I don't believe K.C. wants Pacheco touching the ball 16+ times a game. It's a long season. He topped out at 182 touches as a college sophomore. And believe it or not, he's a month older than Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Meanwhile, Jerick McKinnon is 31 -- and yes, I get it, he's still working his magic after several years of injury misery.
But this backfield is complex. If CEH doesn't step up, we might see someone else take on a complementary role. The point is, while Pacheco and while a healthy McKinnon *should* be fine, this RB corps might frequently frustrate fantasy managers. For now, CEH is the wild card.
Through the air, I've dropped Patrick Mahomes a few spots in my final rankings. While he remains my QB2, he's now only barely ahead of Justin Herbert. Kelce's injury (and what I wrote about it yesterday) feeds into that concern. So does Kadarius Toney's questionable durability. When both are healthy, Mahomes will be fine. When they're not, I expect Mahomes to post some of the worst numbers of his incredible career.
The narrative surrounding Detroit's defense is that they're bad, because too many analysts are examining their 2022 season as a whole. Remember, they surrendered an NFL-worst 32.1 points per game in their first seven contests while forcing only six turnovers. But in their next/final 10 contests, they gave up only 20.2 points while forcing 16 turnovers. This probably won't be a cakewalk for K.C.
For the Lions, Gibbs and David Montgomery will compete for touches. That much is clear. Perhaps Montgomery will out-touch the rookie in Week 1, though that might equate to an 11-9 spread. In a game that the Chiefs should win, I expect the Lions to mostly phase out their running game by the fourth quarter.
Through the air, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the game's most must-start WR, for obvious reasons. And Sam LaPorta is a fascinating streamer; I remain uber-high on him a top-3 receivers throughout much of the season. No one else seems remotely flex-worthy, including Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds, and Kalif Raymond.
One more word on the Chiefs: Assuming Toney is good to go, then he and Skyy *should* be startable in 12-team leagues, especially if Kelce sits, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling remains his normal boom-bust self (startable for only the boldest among you).
Final score prediction: Chiefs prevail 27-19. Just like last year, if you want to leave a prediction below, I'll give a shout-out to whoever picks closest.