If the opening Thursday of the NFL season is a walk around the block, then the opening Sunday is a marathon. 14 games. 9-10 hours. And a lot of yards and points. In fact, in the opening Sunday last year, 14 QBs threw for 2+ scores -- or an average of one QB per matchup. 12 threw for 250+ yards.
Meanwhile, 20 running backs collected at least one TD. The four backs who racked up two scores were Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kareem Hunt, Dontrell Hilliard, and James Robinson.
So yeah, Week 1 can be a precursor of what's to come, and it can also represent sell-high moments for players headed toward disappointing campaigns. We need to try to figure out which is which. So good luck today, embrace success, shake off defeat, and keep a close eye on how to improve your team going forward.
If you're dealing with a sit-start dilemma, give a shout. I'll try to give my two cents on all of them. And a big thanks to Matt Weavil and others for jumping in yesterday. More voices = more something. Not sure what, but it's something good.
Oh, and speaking of "something," I'm doing something a little different on Sundays this season. Instead of one recommended DFS lineup, I'll suggest three. Because somehow going 0-for-3 is a goal worth pursuing. The following lineups are based on DraftKings pricing, and are divided into the three Eastern time-zone time slots: 1:00pm, 4:25pm, and 8:00pm. Each lineup is (relatively speaking) ideal for 50/50 contests. But if you use them in a tournament, great, because they're designed to optimize upside.
And for those who aren't aware, I (a) have a good track record on 50/50 lineups over the years, (b) miss big at times -- sometimes very big, (c) place very small wagers on each of my recommended lineups, putting my money where my mouth is, and (d) have won several DFS tournaments over the years, ranging from about 1,500 competitors to 20,000. For example, a few months ago I tied for first place in an XFL DFS tournament: https://twitter.com/PFN365/status/1639612484796530688.
So yes, there's a strategy. I spend a while -- sometimes too long -- working through dozens and dozens of lineup variations. What I present each week isn't some random collection of names (although when I miss big, it certainly looks that way). If you use any of them, good luck. And if you go your own way, I'm rooting for you.
Early Games: Sam Howell ($4,900), Deon Jackson ($4,100), Jamaal Williams ($5,100), Justin Jefferson ($8,800), Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100), Josh Dotson ($5,000), T.J. Hockenson ($5,900), Michael Thomas ($5,100), Commanders ($2,800).
My strategy here is to capitalize on Washington facing an underwhelming Arizona defense. All three Commander players (including their DST) are sharp bargains based on their pricing. At RB, Jackson and Williams are expected to handle a modest-to-considerable load (maybe 14-18 touches, and perhaps more). So I'm focused on volume and hoping for at least one score apiece. Then I went top-heavy with my final four players, including three elite positional guys, plus the boom-bust Thomas.
Middle Games: Justin Herbert ($6,900), Austin Ekeler ($8,400), Aaron Jones ($6,300), Tyreek Hill ($8,200), Mike Williams ($5,700), Courtland Sutton ($5,200), Luke Musgrave ($2,900), Marvin Mims ($3,000), Seahawks ($3,300)
As shared several times this summer, I believe Justin Herbert will break single-season passing records, and I believe the Chargers are a Super-Bowl-caliber team that will lead the league in points scored. Week 1 will be a huge test for them, and it's also a test they can pass. Elsewhere, with so few reliable starting RBs, I'm rolling with Jones, along with rookie TE teammate Musgrave. I've also paired Sutton with Mims, in the belief that one should break through. And Tyreek is Tyreek.
Late Games: Daniel Jones ($5,900), Saquon Barkley ($7,600), Tony Pollard ($7,200), CeeDee Lamb ($7,600), Stefon Diggs ($7,500), Gabe Davis ($5,300), Daniel Bellinger ($2,700), Parris Campbell ($3,200), Jets ($2,700).
A lot of hedging here, and one contingency. I've warned about Darren Waller for two years. He's once again questionable. If he sits, this lineup holds. If he starts, then I'd swap out Bellinger for C.J. Uzomah ($2,600). I expect the Giants to try to control the clock, meaning a lot of short passes and plenty of work on the ground. The Cowboys will be tough to slow down. Buffalo's top two receivers should get enough catches and yards to be startable. As much as I want to believe Aaron Rodgers will play like a champion, the reality is that I don't trust any high-priced Jet in Week 1. Let's see how this offense comes together.
Again, good luck.
, One of the challenges of making Sunday predictions on Saturday is that I need to write it pre-dawn or the Friday night. In this case, it's Friday night. Still plenty of questionable players. Still a lot of unknowns.
But let's do the best we can based on what's right in front of us. The following is an ultra-brief game-by-game rundown of key fantasy predictions, as well as point-spread and moneyline (which team will win) picks. Will try to avoid the obvious and lock in on pressure-point players -- guys who might be borderline startable.