One of the challenges of making Sunday predictions on Saturday is that I need to write it pre-dawn or the Friday night. In this case, it's Friday night. Still plenty of questionable players. Still a lot of unknowns.
But let's do the best we can based on what's right in front of us. The following is an ultra-brief game-by-game rundown of key fantasy predictions, as well as point-spread and moneyline (which team will win) picks. Will try to avoid the obvious and lock in on pressure-point players -- guys who might be borderline startable.
Falcons (-3.5) vs. Panthers -- I believe Desmond Ridder will outplay Bryce Young this season, beginning in Week 1. For Atlanta, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier realistically could combine for 28+ touches. Drake London and Kyle Pitts are solid starters. Mack Hollins is a fascinating boom-bust wild card. For Carolina, it's the same story I've been preaching all summer. The patchwork receiving corps is a mess and is already dealing with injuries. I'm fading everyone, even if there's a decent change that *one* receiver (Terrace Marshall?) will hit double-digits. Oh, and I'm also fading every running back. Miles Sanders landed in a rough spot.
Bengals (-2.5) at Browns -- Now the highest-paid QB in history, Joe Burrow might not be 100%. But he has everything he needs to help lead Cincy to a 3+ point victory over their rivals. Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon are seemingly safe. Keep an eye on Irv Smith, who I pushed earlier this summer, though not enough to compel me to draft him. Also keep an eye on who spells Mixon. Chris Evans might have the inside track, though rookie Chase Brown has been one of my favorite first-year talents. For Cleveland, aside from Nick Chubb, are there any "safe" bets? There's a heap-load of pressure (deservedly) on Deshaun Watson, who has four very capable pass-catchers and a lot of young, tertiary talent. He has to play well, because an 8-9 season won't cut it.
Jaguars (-4.5) at Colts -- Can rookie Anthony Richardson lift Indy to an upset? There's a lot stacked against him, beginning with a questionable arm and an even more questionable backfield. Richardson might have to pull a Lamar Jackson to keep this one close. Fellow rookie Josh Downs and TE Kylen Granson are the most intriguing deep-league plays. And I know managers might feel pressure to start Michael Pittman. But I don't trust him in this offense yet. For the Jags, we will almost certainly witness continued growth from Trevor Lawrence. He and Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne all appear to be must-starts. Zay Jones will remain on the fence for a while, I suppose. And it will be fascinating to see if Tank Bigsby sees action.
Vikings (-5.5) vs. Buccaneers -- Year after year, I talk about Minnesota's unique top-heavy offense. Well, it's as top-heavy as ever. In this one, Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson are must-starts. Then things get tricky. Alexander Mattison is the starter until/unless someone like Ty Chandler outplays him. Might happen. Might not. But Mattison isn't owed anything. He's truly a boom-bust investment this season. And through the air, Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn will battle for relevance. Too soon to anticipate who will step up in Week 1. For Tampa Bay, I'm only trusting Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Maybe TE Cade Otton becomes the de facto #3 receiver. Maybe Rachaad White will get a bunch of targets. Maybe Sean Tucker will outplay him . . . or languish on the bench for 80% of the snaps. It's still a backfield to avoid.
Saints (-3) vs. Titans -- A reasonable point spread that suggests this would be a toss-up if it were on neutral turf. Jamaal Williams should have the backfield primarily to himself. He *should* produce top-20 numbers, though stranger things have happened. And while Chris Olave is an obvious must-start, Michael Thomas isn't. Can he say healthy? At 30 years old, is he even "very good" anymore? I'm comfortable starting him as a top-32 option with some pop. And for Tennessee, will Tyjae Spears earn 6-8 touches behind Derrick Henry? And will Treylon Burks play second-fiddle to DeAndre Hopkins? The answers to those two questions could ripple through the season.
Vikings (-5.5) vs. Buccaneers -- Year after year, I talk about Minnesota's unique top-heavy offense. Well, it's as top-heavy as ever. In this one, Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson are must-starts. Then things get tricky. Alexander Mattison is the starter until/unless someone like Ty Chandler outplays him. Might happen. Might not. But Mattison isn't owed anything. He's truly a boom-bust investment this season. And through the air, Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn will battle for relevance. Too soon to anticipate who will step up in Week 1. For Tampa Bay, I'm only trusting Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Maybe TE Cade Otton becomes the de facto #3 receiver. Maybe Rachaad White will get a bunch of targets. Maybe Sean Tucker will outplay him . . . or languish on the bench for 80% of the snaps. It's still a backfield to avoid.
Saints (-3) vs. Titans -- A reasonable point spread that suggests this would be a toss-up if it were on neutral turf. Jamaal Williams should have the backfield primarily to himself. He *should* produce top-20 numbers, though stranger things have happened. And while Chris Olave is an obvious must-start, Michael Thomas isn't. Can he say healthy? At 30 years old, is he even "very good" anymore? I'm comfortable starting him as a top-32 option with some pop. And for Tennessee, will Tyjae Spears earn 6-8 touches behind Derrick Henry? And will Treylon Burks play second-fiddle to DeAndre Hopkins? The answers to those two questions could ripple through the season.
Steelers (+2) vs. 49ers -- I'll take Pittsburgh in a minor upset. Brock Purdy is either the real deal, or he isn't. But in a stacked Niners offense, it might not matter. So the question is whether the Steelers' strong defense can pressure Purdy into some mistakes, and on offense, whether Pittsburgh can consistently move the chains against an equally tough D. This could be a slog. The obvious great positional players (CMC, Deebo Samuel, and perhaps even George Pickens) need to be starting. George Kittle's success late last season came when Deebo was hurt. To be candid, I'm struggling to trust anyone besides CMC and Deebo in this one.
Commanders (-7) vs. Cardinals -- Two years ago, Carson Wentz looked brilliant in the opening weeks while leading a reinvigorated Washington offense. We might see something similar during the official dawn of the Sam Howell era. Howell, Josh Dotson, and Terry McLaurin are all must-starts versus the hapless Cards, and I'm starting their DST with relative confidence. Their backfield remains a bit muddied, with Antonio Gibson offering the safer PPR floor. We'll see if Brian Robinson can take a step forward in Year 2. For Arizona, Joshua Dobbs is expected to start. He was heroic for Tennesse in his first career start last season. But the Cardinals arguably are far worse, despite their good (on paper) receiving corps.
Ravens (-9.5) vs. Texans -- Houston's young D will be much better than expected. But not this weekend. Despite an above-average backfield and some exceptional defensive playmakers, they can't conceivably keep up with Baltimore. I'm fading everyone on the Texans in fantasy, though Nico Collins has the best shot at posting 50+ yards. Meanwhile, Baltimore learned a valuable lesson this offseason: give Lamar Jackson a wideout corps that isn't bottom-5. The target count between Rashod Bateman, OBJ, and rookie Zay Flowers will be fascinating. Surprisingly, Bateman is the best value play. Jackson and Mark Andrews will do their thing. And by late October we'll know if J.K. Dobbins was a fantasy steal or a fantasy bust.
Commanders (-7) vs. Cardinals -- Two years ago, Carson Wentz looked brilliant in the opening weeks while leading a reinvigorated Washington offense. We might see something similar during the official dawn of the Sam Howell era. Howell, Josh Dotson, and Terry McLaurin are all must-starts versus the hapless Cards, and I'm starting their DST with relative confidence. Their backfield remains a bit muddied, with Antonio Gibson offering the safer PPR floor. We'll see if Brian Robinson can take a step forward in Year 2. For Arizona, Joshua Dobbs is expected to start. He was heroic for Tennesse in his first career start last season. But the Cardinals arguably are far worse, despite their good (on paper) receiving corps.
Ravens (-9.5) vs. Texans -- Houston's young D will be much better than expected. But not this weekend. Despite an above-average backfield and some exceptional defensive playmakers, they can't conceivably keep up with Baltimore. I'm fading everyone on the Texans in fantasy, though Nico Collins has the best shot at posting 50+ yards. Meanwhile, Baltimore learned a valuable lesson this offseason: give Lamar Jackson a wideout corps that isn't bottom-5. The target count between Rashod Bateman, OBJ, and rookie Zay Flowers will be fascinating. Surprisingly, Bateman is the best value play. Jackson and Mark Andrews will do their thing. And by late October we'll know if J.K. Dobbins was a fantasy steal or a fantasy bust.
Bears (-1.5) vs. Packers -- My love of Jordan Love has been put on ice, at least for one week. With Christian Watson out and Romeo Doubs questionable, more weight likely will be put on Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Jones is the only safe start. Dillon and Jayden Reed, along with Luke Musgrave, are deep-league flyers. Doubs is a full start if he's a full go on Sunday. For Chicago, we gotta believe Justin Fields will find D.J. Moore early and often. The rest is a crapshoot, with Khalil Herbert leading a three-man backfield and both Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet battling for secondary scraps. Chicago could post 30 points with only Fields and Moore posting fantasy-startable points. It could be that kind of game.
Broncos (-3) vs. Raiders -- A readers asked me earlier this week whether Russell Wilson was a safe start. I responded that if Wilson flops at home against the Raiders, he won't be the starter later this season. It's not that simple, and yet, it kind of is. This is a must-win game for a reeling Denver franchise that must decide in the next few months whether Wilson should be their starter in 2024. I'm comfortable going all in on the veteran posting 19+ fantasy points. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy (if healthy) are top-36-caliber options, with Marvin Mims potentially capping their ceilings. And in the backfield, can Javonte Williams get off to a good start? The Broncos won't over-work him. But talent-wise, I still believe he's two cuts above Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin -- though reportedly all three could see action. And for Vegas, I've warned about Josh Jacobs all summer. While he and Davante Adams presumably are weekly must-starts, I'd at least sell high on Jacobs, for what it's worth. And it'll be interesting to see if the formerly impressive Hunter Renfrow can regain relevance alongside Adams and Jakobi Meyers.
Broncos (-3) vs. Raiders -- A readers asked me earlier this week whether Russell Wilson was a safe start. I responded that if Wilson flops at home against the Raiders, he won't be the starter later this season. It's not that simple, and yet, it kind of is. This is a must-win game for a reeling Denver franchise that must decide in the next few months whether Wilson should be their starter in 2024. I'm comfortable going all in on the veteran posting 19+ fantasy points. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy (if healthy) are top-36-caliber options, with Marvin Mims potentially capping their ceilings. And in the backfield, can Javonte Williams get off to a good start? The Broncos won't over-work him. But talent-wise, I still believe he's two cuts above Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin -- though reportedly all three could see action. And for Vegas, I've warned about Josh Jacobs all summer. While he and Davante Adams presumably are weekly must-starts, I'd at least sell high on Jacobs, for what it's worth. And it'll be interesting to see if the formerly impressive Hunter Renfrow can regain relevance alongside Adams and Jakobi Meyers.
Eagles (-4) at Patriots -- Either New England will pull a rabbit out of the hat, or their passing attack will remain one of the NFL's most anemic. It's tough to start anyone on that side of the ball, except Rhamondre Stevenson and (for you sentimental types) Zeke Elliott. For Philly, their three-man backfield probably will shake out to two-man by October. For now, it's a mess. The only must-starts are Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Don't panic if they underwhelm a bit. This will be one of their toughest matchups.
Chargers (-3) vs. Dolphins -- I rarely read or watch fantasy analysts. But one influential analyst shared a few days ago that Miami's vaunted D will stymie Justin Herbert. And since I believe Herbert will pass for 6,000+ yards, and the Chargers will lead the league in offensive yards, you can imagine how I reacted to those sentiments. Remember, Miami picked Tua over Herbert in 2020. The first time Herbert faced them was last November, when he completed a career-high 39 passes en route to a 20+ point performance. All big-name Chargers should be in fantasy starting lineups. Gerald Everett is a fantastic boom-bust flyer. Josh Palmer deserves top-45 consideration. For Miami, it's the usual: Tua, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. Beyond that, I'm steering clear of tertiary receivers. And Raheem Mostert still makes me nervous. Devon Achane likely will outperform him beginning in November, if not sooner.
Seahawks (-4.5) vs. Rams -- The point spread should be double-digits. The Rams' defense isn't remotely what it was two years ago. Neither is the offense. Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, and Puka Nacua will compete. Maybe one will end up being startable? 30-year-old Tyler Higbee is a start-then-sell-high TE. I still doubt Matthew Stafford makes it to December. For Seattle, the "big four" of Kenneth Walker, Geno Smith, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett belong in most fantasy lineups. That won't always be the case for the recently overachieving Geno. And watch the target share for rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the snap count for rookie Zach Charbonnet.
Cowboys (-3) vs. Giants -- While not thrilled to pick Dallas on the road, I'm comfortable betting on their offense and defense. If you drafted Brandin Cooks, it makes sense to start him. Michael Gallup is a bit more fringe. Meanwhile, Dak, CeeDee, and Tony Pollard are obvious starts. For New York, no one can responsibly bench Saquon Barkley, though I've warned often that he's a significant regression/injury risk. I've shared similar sentiments about Darren Waller these past two offseasons. And yes, Waller is already hurt. We'll see if he suits up on Sunday. The Giants have too many receivers -- and not enough "great" ones -- to take another step forward.
Jets (+2.5) vs. Bills -- I keep wanting to pick Buffalo, but something is holding me back. So yes, I'm going with the Jets to cover and win outright. This might be New York's most-hyped Week 1 home game since . . . well, maybe ever. Brett Favre's 2008 opener was on the road. Joe Namath's 1969 opener (right after winning the Super Bowl) also was on the road. So consider the context, the stakes, the personnel . . . everything. Aaron Rodgers probably won't be a top-12 fantasy QB Sunday night or this season as a whole. But he'll do enough to help put New York over the top. I expect him to target 9+ players, including guys like Randall Cobb. Garrett Wilson commands attention, but I don't see him dominating. For Buffalo, I'd roll with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs with confidence, and with James Cook and Gabe Davis with limited confidence. Everyone else is a crapshoot.
Whew. That took a while to write. Not sure if each Saturday will be this comprehensive. But hopefully this helps set the stage for an incredible opening weekend.