The most-hyped Jets home opener in more than half a century became the most lamented in less than four game minutes. While X-rays are negative, an MRI today will show whether Aaron Rodgers can still (possibly) lead his new team to the Promised Land . . . or whether the almost 40-year-old is lost for weeks, months, or even the whole year.
On the one hand, it hardly seemed possible. Rodgers has missed only one start in the past five seasons. He's savvy enough to get rid of the ball versus taking the hit. In fact, he's been sacked only 82 times the past three years. Not bad. In Rodgers, the Jets were getting one of the greatest of all time, period.
On the other hand, there were warning signs. Many of them. Yes, he was my QB18 compared to a QB12 ADP. I wrote a fair amount about why I didn't trust him anywhere close to his market value. But the question is *how*. How can anyone predict what seemed to be a fluke injury? Because it was a fluke injury. If Rodgers hadn't been sacked, he probably would have played the whole game.
But . . . he's older, less mobile, and had already been dealing with a calf strain in camp. The Jets' offensive line is objectively worse than what he had last year in Green Bay. Rodgers' stellar 2021 campaign is firmly in the rearview mirror. He is, I believe, post-prime. And with studies showing older athletes average longer recovery times than younger athletes, Rodgers was an unnecessary risk entering this season.
The Jets seemingly knew what they were doing. They rolled the dice on a guy who, on paper, is the best quarterback this franchise has ever had. And yet, what happened last night was always a higher-than-normal probability. With no backup plan in place, the entire Jets strategy hinges on Rodgers staying on the field. On July 10th I wrote, "All this future Hall-of-Famer needs to do is (a) stay healthy, and (b) see (a)."
So here's the deal, and I think we're all already on the same page, though it bears reinforcing. If Rodgers is out for two months or longer, then Garrett Wilson will be no better than a fringe streamer, and every other receiver will be benchable. The beginning of the second half last night spoke volumes. 10 of the Jets' first 11 plays were directed at Breece Hall or Dalvin Cook. The Jets were down 10 points, and they were still committed to the running game and RB dump-offs.
While Zach Wilson might someday make good on his high draft capital, he remains a work-in-progress, to put it mildly. As of this writing (currently late in the third quarter), Cook leads all Jets with 26 receiving yards. Yeah, the Bills' D is playing them tough. But Wilson isn't the answer, and fantasy managers with Hall and/or Cook can only hope for enough receptions to compensate for diminished scoring opportunities.
While Jets fans and invested fantasy managers hold their breaths, we turn to the Bills, which looked nothing like the dominant squad that obliterated the defending-champion Rams on the road in Week 1 last year. The D actually ceded too many yards on the ground -- and I'm not just referring to Hall's incredible 83-yard scamper. Even if we remove that, Hall and Cook collectively ran decently considering the Bills should have known nearly every play would go through them.
On offense, Buffalo never found its rhythm, though the Jets' defense deserves a lot of credit, especially after Rodgers went down. Allen looked as human as ever -- or at least since his rookie campaign. Notably, James Cook dominated touches over Damien Harris. As subscribers know, Allen was a sharp fade on my draft board, while Cook was a huge bargain. Both will see better days. But I still believe Allen won't be a top-3 QB, while Cook *should* shock the fantasy market (but hopefully not people here) and finish as a top-16 RB (compared to his RB27 ADP).
Oh, and a huge shout-out to Steve Michelson and Ross Fessenden, longtime friends, co-podcasters, and co-managers of a fantasy team I seem to always face in Week 1. They needed 6.2 points from Dalton Kincaid, and they got (with 10 minutes left in the game) 6.6. I'm not going to sit here and wait for Kincaid to catch a two-yard pass and fumble it away. I mean, that only happens in movies.
So congrats to Steve and Ross for crushing my evening, which is the most polite thing I can say at the moment.