The Travis Kelce news is the kind of news that shakes up late-summer drafts. Or at least, it probably should.
I write about "perfect storms" sometimes -- when various factors come together, leading to a higher-probability outcome. Only two days ago I highlighted how Kelce's "snap-count percentage has dropped each season since 2018." A month ago I acknowledged whiffing on him last preseason (wrongly claiming he would regress), but then warned that his 25% target share and career-high 12 TDs in 2022 were not easily replicable.
As a result, as subscribers have known for weeks, he's been well below his ADP on my draft board. In other words, I've been advising managers to fade the sure-fire first-round pick.
Yesterday's knee injury brings all of these concerns back to the forefront. Currently questionable for Week 1, Kelce remains the best at his position. He's paired with (perhaps) one of the greatest QBs in history.
But his knee scare is about more than Week 1. It's about whether head coach Andy Reid handles Kelce differently than he would have otherwise. Because his star tight end will turn 34 in October -- an age when most TEs have retired. Most players at his position begin declining in their late 20s, 30, or (if they're lucky) 31. Another Chiefs / all-time great, Tony Gonzalez, was 32 when he ended his tenure in K.C. That season he compiled a blistering 98-1,058-10 receiving line. He played five more seasons in Atlanta, but never topped any of those numbers again. A few months after he hung up his cleats, Kelce played in his first NFL game.
"Kelce is built differently" is a common claim, and to a large extent, it's true. His dominance has defied logic. Who catches his first NFL pass just shy of 25 years old, and then does what he does?
And yet, he's human. And he's not just any human football player. He's the co-offensive anchor of the dynastic Chiefs, which are trying to reach their fourth Super Bowl in five years. They'll need to play 19 or 20 contests before reaching the title game. And they'll need a healthy Kelce to maximize their odds of back-to-back crowns.
This is where things get dicey for fantasy managers. Drafting based on whether he's available for Week 1 is only a small part of the picture. The bigger picture is whether Reid is comfortable starting Kelce in every other regular-season game . . . whether a questionable tag that might have been meaningless last year suddenly forces managers to find a Plan B, "just in case" . . . whether Noah Gray plays well enough (as he likely will) to prompt the Chiefs to continue decreasing Kelce's snap count -- and likely his workload -- to keep him fresher for the postseason.
Because again, this isn't just a random franchise. These are the mighty Chiefs, with mighty expectations. They can afford to go 12-5 as long as all their key guys are healthy for the playoffs. They can afford to sit Kelce two or three times if it increases his odds of being 100% (or close to it) in mid-January.
Pre-injury, Kelce was simply an aging all-time-great that one should be cautious drafting. Now, after nearly a decade of incredible health, he's reminded everyone he's human. His body has limitations. Yes, we know this inherently. But it's easy to look past it if it's not staring us in the face.
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