A couple of Septembers ago, when Cooper Kupp was beginning his ascension from "good streamer" to elite WR, I remember warning people -- too many people -- to sell high. A legendary season seemed farfetched. Cashing out after a hot start made sense. And of course, I had to own that big miss.
Two years later, with the 30-year-old Kupp sidelined, a new star has emerged for a franchise desperate for offensive playmakers. He might be the biggest name in fantasy -- a fifth-round rookie whose merely adequate Combine scores didn't adequately showcase his in-game talent. He's not a contested-catch receiver. But from what I've seen (i.e. all 25 of his receptions), he seems to run cleans routes and possesses great hands. There's some Wes Welker to his game, though Nacua has a bigger frame.
I'm struggling with Nacua's rest-of-season value, in part because of my blind spot two years ago with Kupp. Matthew Stafford has spent most of his career feeding a favored target. His only true spread-the-ball-around season was in 2016, in the aftermath of Calvin Johnson's early retirement. In general, Stafford seems to lock in on the guy he trusts most. Nacua has dropped only one of 35 targets. More than half of his catches have gone for first downs.
So yeah, the connection is real, and there are many reasons to believe it will continue for at least two more weeks. When Kupp returns, perhaps we'll see both guys crack the top 15. Maybe the top 12 if Stafford keeps throwing early and often.
But three things worry me about Nacua. And yes, this column is about why I'd sell high -- and why I'm risking further humiliation if I'm wrong.
The first issue is Kupp. It matters. We haven't seen these guys play together. Kupp remains the alpha until/unless Nacua overtakes him. Nothing surprising here. We can all understand that Kupp's impending return will have some impact. The question is how much.
The second issue is less obvious, but arguably more significant. Stafford is on pace for 791 pass attempts. Tom Brady set the all-time single-season record last year with 733. It would defy logic for Stafford to maintain this pace. Even an incredible 700-pass season would mean averaging 40.5 throws per game the rest of the way. That's a lot. Yet he's averaging 46.5. How would six fewer pass attempts translate to his receivers' fantasy values, especially when Kupp is back on the field?
Finally, I ran numbers on the top fantasy WRs. Among the top 24, Nacua's averaging the fewest fantasy points per target. In other words, he's being propped up by volume at levels not normally seen. And the difference is huge. He's averaging 1.49 points per look. The other 23 WRs are averaging 2.21. Among last season's top 24, only Garrett Wilson (the WR21) averaged fewer points per target (1.47). The year before, only D.J. Moore (WR18) averaged less (1.46).
Nacua's not a deep-ball guy. He probably won't outrun any secondaries. At 6'1", he probably won't win many jump balls. As a possession receiver, he's lights out. But Nacua will need 10+ targets a game to be a top-20 WR the rest of the way. He'll need 15+ targets a game to remain elite. For context, Marvin Harrison set the all-time record in 2002 with 205 targets — or “only” 12.8 per game. Unless Stafford continues to throw like no QB has come close to throwing before, a regression seems likely.
Granted, things could change. Maybe the rookie will be heavily targeted in the red zone. Maybe Kupp will have a setback in October, and the 3-6 Rams decide to play it safe and put him on ice until 2024.
But based on the most likely outcomes -- as well as recent NFL history -- I'm cautioning folks to recognize Nacua's path to dominance the rest of the season requires a leap of faith that I can't fathom. I've been wrong before. Many times. In this case, Nacua would need to be an extraordinary statistical outlier to finish in the top 15. As the current overall WR2, he should garner significant trade interest if you sell high. And if you can get top-10 value for him, I'd make the move in a heartbeat.