A longtime community member shared yesterday that he's nervous about going WR-WR in the first two rounds. As most of you know by now, I've never subscribed to a draft-position doctrine. Some of the people who insisted years ago that RB-RB is the best way to go now have a very different approach. Others can't wait to snag Travis Kelce in the opening round. Others take Patrick Mahomes a round or two earlier than most elite QBs come off the board.
Whatever works. It's about picking the right guys, not the right positions. Based on overall ADPs heading into Week 1 last year, Jonathan Taylor (1 ADP) disappointed, while CMC (2) came through big-time. Austin Ekeler (3) was the overall RB1, while Cooper Kupp (4) dominated the first half of the season before an injury sidelined him the rest of the year.
Derrick Henry (5) pretty much met expectations, while Justin Jefferson (6) exceeded his. But Dalvin Cook (7) and Najee Harris (8) disappointed. Ja'Marr Chase (9) crushed it when active, but missed five games. Joe Mixon (10) crushed it one week, and otherwise was sub-par. And Davante Adams (11) and Stefon Diggs (12) both shined.
Big picture: last year's first round was a crapshoot. Picking the right guy netted you elite positional value, while picking the wrong guy forced you to play catch-up. This is typical for first rounds, which is why many of us stress about it.
But on a micro level, last season's top-12-ADP results tell a compelling story that spans the past decade. It's why I've gradually/steadily reduced the significance of elite and near-elite RBs in my rankings in recent years, and why I push more elite QBs and WRs as first and second rounders.
From 2012 to 2022 (11 seasons), each of the top 6 preseason RBs (based on ADP) has averaged 222.9 points per year, while the top 7-12 ADP RBs have averaged 219.1 points. Notably, the top 6 group have averaged 0.7 fewer games played beginning in Week 13 versus the top 7-12 group. They're less reliable down the stretch, and have only barely outperformed the next tier.
Top running backs are truly a role of the dice. Pick right, and we're golden. Pick wrong, and it can be tough to recover, especially in larger leagues. In the 14-team PFFL last season, I missed a fantasy playoffs for the first time in 10 years, spanning more than 20 leagues I competed in during that time. My first pick was an RB who was knocked out for the season in Week 3. His supposedly sure-fire backup was cut from the team by November. Yeah, I never recovered, though I tried.
The other offensive positions have yielded different results. The top 6 QBs (again, based on ADP), have averaged 292.8 points, while the top 7-12 have averaged 248.5. Interestingly, the top 13-18 have averaged 245.9, which reinforces why I keep urging readers to target an elite or near-elite quarterback, and if they miss out, wait and snag Jordan Love or a similarly undervalued, "undraftable" option. Historically, taking the 8th- or 10th- or 12-best QB (based on ADP) has been, on balance, a wasted pick.
TEs have operated similarly, thanks in part to Travis Kelce's dominance for much of the past decade. Top 6 TEs (per ADP) have averaged 171.2 points, while top 7-12 TEs have netted 134.9 points. And top 13-18 TEs have averaged 122.1 points. Again, this is why I've been content to wait for Sam LaPorta (TE18 ADP). I don't feel pressure to use a middle-round pick on David Njoku (TE8), when I can invest that selection on more of a difference-maker, and then snag LaPorta near the end.
Finally, top 6 WRs (as always, per ADP) have averaged 256.3 points, while top 7-12 WRs have averaged 219.9 points. Amazingly, top 13-18 WRs netted 204.0 points, while top 19-24 WRs collected 206.8 points. This reinforces why elite WRs are worth taking in the opening round. Based on historical data, we're embracing a relatively high probability of success. The gap between WRs 1-6 and WRs 7-12 is significant.
This why I'm comfortable going WR-WR-QB in the first three rounds, followed by RB-WR-RB (for example). And for what it's worth, I'm also happy to go RB-RB if two of my favorite top running backs fall in my lap. But I won't force it.
Again, there's no ideal strategy, because if you ask 10 people how they won their title, they'll probably give you 10 very different answers -- including 10 moderately distinct approaches in the opening rounds. We can win going RB-RB. It might be harder than winning by going WR-WR or TE-QB or TE-WR. But it's entirely doable.
The key, as always, is knowing *why* we're drafting the way we're drafting. It can't be random. We can't simply throw up our hands and leave it to fate. There are riskier methods and safer methods. I prefer safer, unless the risks are too favorable to pass up.
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