My Mount Rushmore for greatest rushers of all time consists of Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, Jamaal Charles, and Nick Chubb. (Joe Perry is a close #5.) Like Sanders, Chubb has often competed on sub-par teams. Only once during his tenure has Cleveland finished with a winning record. In each of his five full campaigns, the Browns have given up more points than they've scored.
The magic of Chubb is that he's persevered despite serving as an offensive focal point year after year. Each season, an elite broken-tackle rate. Each season, elite yards-after-first-contact. Each season, 5.0+ yards per carry.
On that last note, we might never again witness an RB beginning his career with five consecutive 5.0+ YPC campaigns. As a rookie, among backs with more than 175 rushing attempts, he was one of only four players to clear that mark. The following year, one of only three. The year after that, one of seven. the year after that, one of two. And last year, one of five.
The names around him kept changing. But he's stood alone as consistently elite.
It's 5:15am Eastern, and we still have no confirmation on his injury. But the prevailing notion is that he's done for the season. If that's the case, we probably won't see him again -- depending on the severity of the injury -- until he's a few weeks or months shy of turning 30 years old.
For context, Chubb and Jamaal Charles both have birthdays on December 27. Both are among the best NFL rushers in history. And, assuming the worst for Chubb, both endured catastrophic knee injuries early in their age-28 seasons. Charles never looked the same while winding down his career in Kansas City, then Denver, and then Jacksonville. While it's too soon to make sensible predictions about Chubb, it's quite possible we've just witnessed the last of his greatness.
On a side note, I strongly believe that running backs should earn higher minimum rookie contracts, depending on where they're drafted. Essentially, they shouldn't be forced to play four years (and sometimes five) below market value. Chubb is one of the "lucky" ones, remaining at the top of his game while negotiating for a new contract. Most RBs don't make it that far. Of course, that's a whole other topic, though with huge fantasy ramifications. If franchises view more RBs as long-term investments, then they might enjoy longer and more productive careers.
Aaron Jones is a great example. I discussed this a few months ago (or maybe last year, or both). The Packers broke the mold. Jones is one of the past decade's best rushers. Until last week, he's been incredibly durable. Why? One reason is because he's never collected more than 236 regular-season carries. In an age when top running backs are chewed up and spit out, Green Bay has adopted a different approach. Nearing his 29th birthday, Jones remains one of the best in the game. If he'd been a true workhorse all these years, he might have been out of the NFL by now.
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OK, let's shift gears and briefly discuss last night. Jerome Ford becomes arguably the biggest waiver add of the week. He's available in 90.9% of ESPN leagues. But in my 14-team FF4W Premier Fantasy Football League, Johnny Green drafted him in the 10th round. Johnny was my opponent in the finals two years ago. He knows his stuff.
And yes, Pierre Strong got a score, but only after a big run by Ford brought Cleveland to the goal line. I don't see this as a 50-50 or even 60-40 backfield. Unless the Browns go all in on an acquisition (Jonathan Taylor?), Ford is primed for a strong fantasy campaign.
Elsewhere for the Browns, Deshaun Watson is objectively sub-par, at least at the moment. All of his assets cannot overcome the clear deficiencies he's displayed since returning to the field last year. I've beaten the drum consistently on this issue. Whether or not Watson can return to greatness is, in some ways, irrelevant. Cleveland went all-in on a guy who's expected to help carry them to their first Super Bowl title. They can't bench him. They can't trade him. They can't cut him. They've surrounded him with the best talent they could find. A receiving core of Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku is as good or better than Baker Mayfield ever had. Yet Watson's decision making has never been worse. His sloppiness is rookie-like. I cannot fathom starting him in any one-QB league until/unless he finds his groove.
For Pittsburgh, Kenny Pickett has not progressed, leaving George Pickens as his only fantasy-relevant receiver while Diontae Johnson's sidelined. Should Superflex managers worry? Not yet. These first two games were against the 49ers and Browns. Let's see how he does in Vegas, which should (I believe) give him a fighting chance to show some development.
In the Steelers' backfield, I was completely wrong (so far) about Najee Harris. He's been fantasy-irrelevant these first two weeks, and Jaylen Warren has dominated in the passing game. But -- and this is important -- Warren is averaging only 2.9 YPC, compared to Harris's 4.6. The biggest fantasy issue is that Warren has nine catches, compared to only three for Harris. It's a huge disparity this early in the season, and very concerning for Harris, as it's a continuation of a dramatic drop in targets since his rookie campaign. Let's see if this begins to even out in the coming weeks, or if Harris remains a TD-or-bust RB.
In the other Monday Night Football game, Adam Thielen proved me wrong with a nice night. Keep in mind, he had 11.1 fantasy points until a garbage-time TD and two-point conversion. But I'm nit-picking. Thielen was the only Carolina wideout to step up. If he remains Bryce Young's top target, then the 33-year-old will far exceed my muted expectations.
In the backfield, Miles Sanders was a major fade in my rankings because . . . well, we've seen why. Although the receptions are nice, he's shifted from one of the league's best offenses to arguably the worst. His efficiency and scoring opportunities have hit rock bottom. Sell high if you can, and if you can't get Jerome Ford and are looking for a lower-ceiling lottery ticket, snag Chuba Hubbard.
For the Saints, this was a typical Derek Carr night. "Workmanlike" is a good way to describe his play. Somehow, he's been able to feed three receivers. But beware: these first two games were against Tennessee and Carolina. He will face tougher secondaries, and as a result, I doubt he'll be able to sustain this spread-the-ball productivity. The highly efficiency and relatively low-volume Rashid Shaheed is the riskiest among him, Chris Olave, and Michael Thomas. I would sell high on Shaheed, packaging him in a 2-for-2 to try to secure a more reliable top-35 WR.