Each NFL Sunday is unique. Yesterday's was more unique than usual. As always, let's run through the biggest fantasy storyline for each team. As a reminder, the "biggest" might be a key injury, a blow-up performance, a dud, or even something that might seem insignificant, but actually might signal something massive.
Oh, and for transparency purposes, I went 1-1 on DFS 50/50 lineups. And including Thursday night's game, I went 7-7 on point spreads and 8-6 on picking the winners. Also for transparency, I don't update the point spreads shared in Saturday's column (which I write Friday night). So the Packers were 1.5-point favorites Friday night. CBS Sports listed them as only one-point favorites yesterday morning. They won by a point. I don't cherry-pick point spreads. The Saturday column (1.5-point favorites) is the one that stands.
So far, it's been a rough season for me on point spreads, and not much better on picking winners. Hopefully I can provide some real value going forward.
Browns -- The Jerome Ford era began with a fantasy bang, but an on-the-field whimper. The Titans' stout run D deserves credit. Yet their opening drive was fascinating, as Elijah Moore, Kareem Hunt, Pierre Strong, Deshaun Watson, and even Marquise Goodwin each earned a carry. Where was Ford? Not seen until the second drive. Clearly deliberate, and it led to points on the board. But Ford should have smoother sailing versus Baltimore next week. He'll need it if he wants to fend off Hunt and Strong all season.
Titans -- I benched Treylon Burks Sunday morning in favor of Josh Downs, who I took with the 215th pick. But you're not here to read about Burks, who might be wishing the Lions had drafted him a few picks earlier in 2022. As I wrote last summer and this summer, Tennessee is one foot in a rebuild and another in "let's push for a playoff spot." Last season's collapse has carried over into September, and Derrick Henry might be feeling the effects of a 382-touch campaign that, historically, dooms most RBs his age (and with his mileage). For the umpteenth time, brace yourself for the strong possibility that the Titans trade him before the deadline, in what would be an earth-shattering real-life and fantasy move.
Lions -- Among 231 rankers compiled by FantasyPros, only eight (3%) ranked Sam LaPorta in the top 11. His ADP was TE18. As subscribers know, he was my TE11, ahead of "better" tight ends like David Njoku and Tyler Higbee. If T.J. Hockenson hadn't fallen into my lap at pick #47, I would have waited on LaPorta. And in hindsight, I probably should have. He's the real deal, folks.
Falcons -- And I was wrong about Atlanta's passing attack, which is more of a 1960's version of a passing attack. The deceptively capable Lions' D deserves accolades for neutralizing everyone. It's becoming painfully clear that, barring a dramatic change, everyone not named Bijan is TD-dependent.
Packers -- Jordan Love, folks. Jordan Love. Remember what I wrote a few sentences ago about taking Hockenson instead of waiting on LaPorta? I did the same thing with Justin Herbert (round 3), instead of waiting on my favorite QB bargain, Love (my QB14). Love's preseason ADP was QB26. That's not a typo. The market even ranked Kyler Murray ahead of him. Among the 200+ experts compiled by FantasyPros, only four experts -- yes, four -- ranked him 14th or better. This is how some leagues are won or lost. There are breakout positional stars every year. If you snag one of them in the draft, you're well on your way to title contention.
Saints -- A shoulder injury knocked out Derek Carr, and while Jameis Winston is one of the better backup QBs (at his best, I believe he can still be starter-worthy), we might downgrade Chris Olave and Michael Thomas a tiny bit if Carr misses time. I also want to zoom in on rookie Kendre Miller, whose hype didn't match likely reality. I tweeted yesterday morning about his brutally bad preseason, and how there was no guarantee he'd out-touch Tony Jones. And now with Alvin Kamara returning, Miller is little more than a deep-league hold with no guarantee of starting a game until 2024, or maybe even 2025.
Dolphins -- Devon Achane debuted last week with one carry and one catch for a combined nine yards. So naturally he joined the elite 50+ point fantasy club yesterday. I mean, seriously. How? And considering Raheem Mostert netted 45.2 points . . . again, how? How does a 31-year-old and an uber-green rookie jointly collect 96.5 fantasy points? Nothing I write can make it make sense. It happened. Miami is far better than I gave them credit for. And Achane apparently is NFL-ready.
Broncos -- "Embarrassing" isn't the right word for it. And the Russell Wilson gamble might be coming to a close, perhaps as soon as their Week 9 bye week. Wilson can't be blamed for much of what happened in this one. But his best days are clearly behind him. Fantasy-wise, if Denver keeps losing, it might hurt Javonte Williams the most, because he needs positive game scripts to be consistently fantasy-viable.
Vikings -- Alexander Mattison proved me wrong with a strong fantasy performance after I gave up on him. And he proved me right after I ranked him more than a round ahead of his ADP this summer. And . . . on balance, I've been wrong about him more than I've been right. Handed the keys to this backfield, he struggled enough to compel Minnesota to add Cam Akers, who could see action next week. For the winless Vikings, Mattison's days as a weekly fantasy starter might be ending. Of course, we'll see how this all shakes out.
Chargers -- As of Sunday night, we don't know the severity of Mike Williams' knee injury. If it's significantly, clearly Joshua Palmer and/or Quentin Johnston would be elevated to at least semi-prominent roles. Palmer has the inside track in the short term. And if it's a season-ending injury, and if were good at WR, I'd rather invest less in Johnston, with an eye toward a bigger impact during the fantasy playoffs.
Jets -- No more warnings about Garrett Wilson are needed. The writing's been on the wall, and the Jets' brass has refused to read it. A shocking Week 1 victory glossed over the reality of a brutal situation. This team needs a top-40 NFL QB in a hurry. Zach Wilson probably isn't in the top 50.
Patriots -- If you have Zeke Elliott, sell high to whoever has Rhamondre Stevenson. I believe Zeke's strong play yesterday was an outlier. This offense isn't strong enough to support two fantasy-relevant RBs. While Stevenson has struggled (relatively speaking), he's still the lead guy.
Commanders -- Sam Howell had four interceptions. But his job seems safe. I care more about Brian Robinson, who was lights-out on 10 carries. And yet, he had only seven fantasy points to show for it. Why? Because like Joshua Kelley and Gus Edwards and others, Robinson is a volume-dependent, TD-dependent RB. Why didn't I advise folks to start Kelley or Edwards yesterday? The same reason I almost never advise starting Robinson. As good as he's looked overall (on the field), he's simply not someone I trust to find the end zone. Some weeks he will, But most weeks he won't. Based on probabilities, he's little more than a fantasy flyer disguised as a bell cow.
Bills -- The Gabe Davis breakout I believed would happen did not come close to happening. 10.5 points is nice, but being a distant #2 to Stefon Diggs is not what I anticipated when pushing him as a big bargain this summer. Currently hovering near the top-30 WR cut-off, he's the same boom-bust option we saw last year. Although I still believe in his growth potential, it's not yet apparent.
Jaguars -- What the heck happened in Jacksonville? And by the way, this is indicative of the mistake many fantasy analysts make (and of course, I make them too). Houston was missing several defensive starters and had just given up 31 points to the Colts. The Jags were primed for a big game. It didn't happen. For those who drafted Calvin Ridley, Week 1 must feel like a month ago. To me, Week 1 was a statement game for a talented guy who'd missed nearly two straight years. Since then, Ridley's caught five of 15 targets. He'll get back on track. But sustained top-20 production seems farfetched at the moment.
Texans -- A week after I wrote something like "Nico Collins looks like the team's #1 WR," Tank Dell delivered his second consecutive monster outing. Collins languished as an afterthought. This might remain a tough receiver corps to bet on. For now, we should assume Robert Woods has the lowest ceiling. This is a buy opportunity for Collins, though not necessarily a sell opportunity for Dell.
Colts -- An impressive road win, and possibly the most complete victory (i.e. all aspects of the game) by this franchise since the Andrew Luck era. Indy now leads the AFC South, and they've scored the AFC's fourth-most points. Notably, Zack Moss deserves accolades for delivering twice in eight days, racking up 54 touches in the process. Trading him to whoever has Jonathan Taylor might be managers' best play. Or if you're a risk taker, hope that Taylor is sent elsewhere, leaving backfield entirely to Moss. That said, this strong start by the Colts might motivate them to pay Taylor and make a serious playoff push.
Ravens -- Gus Edwards left with a concussion. It's 2021 all over again, as Baltimore was forced to turn to their #4 and #5 RBs. Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake can do only so much these days. While they're 2-1, their next three games are on the road in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee. I couldn't justify starting an Baltimore RB in those matchups, whether or not Edwards is healthy. But if he misses time, it would put more pressure on Lamar Jackson, which actually could boost his ceiling (e.g. keeping the ball in his hands near the goal line).
Seahawks -- With Kenneth Walker dominating, it's worth highlighting Zach Charbonnet's solid 9-46 rushing line. The rookie also added a catch. His usage has steadily grown, signaling Seattle's confidence in him. Charbonnet is shaping up to be one of the better RB handcuffs to roster.
Panthers -- I could write about Adam Thielen, but I pushed him hard entering Week 3. I could mention D.J. Chark's nice showing, but he's still the same boom-bust flyer. What about Andy Dalton? With 58 pass attempts, anything's possible. The most notable storyline remains Miles Sanders' struggles on the ground. The offensive line surely isn't helping. But he's now down to 3.4 yards per carry. Carolina gave him $13 million guaranteed, so there's not a lot they can do, especially for a rebuilding franchise that will probably search for their next "great" RB in one of the next two drafts. Still, I'm wondering if Sanders will remain the workhorse all year, or if someone like Chuba Hubbard will eat into his usage.
Chiefs -- Yes, I benched Isiah Pacheco out of concern for his injury. His touchdown turned what might have been an okay outing into a great one. Notably, CEH delivered similar rushing numbers. However, a lot of that came during the game's blowout phase. If you have CEH and want to trade him to the opponent who has Pacheco, this is the ideal time. Because if your opponent has only seen the stats (minus the context), they might think the Chiefs' backfield is now a timeshare.
Bears -- I write this at least once every year: the NFL is about adjustments and counter-adjustments. Justin Fields looked awful at the start of his career. He and his coaching staff made adjustments. He flourished. And assuredly, opposing teams made counter-adjustments this offseason to try to slow him down. It's worked, and now the Bears might be wondering if there are any cards left to play. They'll need to figure something out soon, because at 0-3, their season outlook is a bit too precarious. I expect major adjustments next week versus Denver, with Fields running more (closer to last year's clip). If you drafted him, don't give up on him quite yet.
Cowboys -- One of the more remarkable upsets we might see this season. Fantasy-wise, a week after I lamented Michael Gallup's decline, he made me look foolish for all the best reasons. More notably (based on the more scarce TE position), Jake Ferguson stepped up as expected while also co-leading the team in targets. Deep-leaguers who drafted him should feel better about his rest-of-season prospects.
Cardinals -- Of all the wrong things I've written, poo-poo'ing James Conner this preseason was one of the worst. Can't explain it. Will certainly try to understand it. Most running backs could not have carried this team on their shoulders and out-hustled what was considered the league's best defense.
Steelers -- I was also brutally wrong on Najee Harris, and there's probably no way to recover. In fairness, he was my RB6 compared to an RB9 ADP. But the damage has been done. I advised reaching for him, and he's shown only small spurts. As shared last week, one of the culprits is his aerial usage. He's on pace for 34 targets this season, compared to 53 last year and 94 the year before. He's actually hitting a career-high 4.0 YPC, which is far better than Jaylen Warren's 3.2. That said, until/unless Harris recaptures the magic of 2021 (not likely), he'll be one of many TD-or-bust RBs.
Raiders -- On the flip side, Josh Jacobs' preseason ADP was RB7. As subscribers know, he was my RB19. "Do not draft him," I warned repeatedly. Why? Not because of hunches or biases, but because of research showing he had a high probability of a significant regression. Among 200+ FantasyPros-compiled experts, 99% ranked him better. Most ranked him at or better than his ADP. Only two people ranked him worse than I did. Again, this is partially how fantasy titles are won or lost.