Few fantasy managers escape the opening NFL weekend unscathed. Injuries can be devastating. Shocking underperformers can be rattling. And actually, sometimes the latter is worse. How many of us clung to Allen Robinson two years ago, needlessly starting him (in hindsight) week after week when so many WRs on waivers would have been far better?
Injuries are like quickly ripped band-aids. They sting. Sometimes the pain lingers. But we know what comes next. In the case of a season-ending injury, it means quickly scrambling to find a replacement, or to take some comfort if we already have the replacement rostered.
With that in mind, here are the most notable fantasy impacts for each Sunday game. I try to go beyond the obvious while also trying to limit it to one key player or theme per team. But sometimes the obvious demands context.
Falcons vs. Panthers -- Bijan Robinson's debut couldn't have gone much better. Through one week, my preseason bullishness (relative to ADP) re: Desmond Ridder was unfounded. This still appears to be one of the league's three or four most run-centric offenses. While opponents won't always be this favorable, there's enough space for Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to be weekly starters. Meanwhile, I remain as confused as ever why Carolina mortgaged part of their future to land Bryce Young. He lacks the surrounding talent to thrive this year and probably next year. I didn't trust any Panthers receiver this summer, and this game reinforced why.
Browns vs. Bengals -- This marked the 100th meeting between these two teams (if we include the old Cleveland team, before they became the Ravens). It was also the first time in 17 meetings that these teams combined for less than 33 points. For the Browns, Deshaun Watson was "good enough" while spreading the ball around. A positive game script limited him to 29 throws. We don't yet know if he can be a top-10 QB again, but the once-great Watson did just enough to remain highly fantasy-relevant. As for Cincy, a forgettable contest. Days after Joe Burrow netted the largest contract in history, he simply couldn't generate offense against a tough Cleveland D. Notably, Joe Mixon was the lone bright spot. I still have my doubts about him this season.
Jaguars vs. Colts -- As with any fairly high-scoring game, a lot of players could be highlighted. For the Jags, I want to zoom in on Calvin Ridley, who returned to glory after nearly two years away from the field. For all the hype he earned this preseason, he clearly delivered, and it came at the expense of former #1 Christian Kirk. It'll be interesting to see how this packed offense shares the load going forward, but Ridley certainly appears to be the unquestioned alpha, as expected. And for Indy, Anthony Richardson escaped serious injury. He played far better than I thought he would in his NFL debut. Perhaps by season's end, the Panthers will wish they'd kept their draft picks and selected Richardson.
Buccaneers vs. Vikings -- A shocking upset, at least to me. Two important rhyming last names for Minnesota: Alexander Mattison and Jordan Addison. Mattison did little to cement his standing as the Vikes' #1 back, though Ty Chandler did nothing to challenge him. And the rookie Addison officially leapfrogged K.J. Osborn in Week 1, which was a couple weeks earlier than I anticipated. And Tampa Bay's running game remains dreadful. Something has to change. Baker Mayfield can't realistically lead this team through the air, though it worked out this week, thanks largely to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin stepping up. At running back, Rachaad White's debatable weekly flex value is hanging by a thread.
Saints vs. Titans -- Is Rashid Shaheed the real deal? Honestly, I didn't see this one coming. He'll be a hot waiver commodity this week, though I know some of you drafted him. Congrats if you did. At the same time, once Alvin Kamara returns in Week 4, the backfield should steady itself while also earning more targets. Shaheed has a slim path to consistent startability, especially with Michael Thomas healthy and still capable. For Tennessee, I could write about Nick Westbrook-Ikhine outplaying Treylon Burks. But the more compelling story in my view is Tyjae Spears mixing in and proving his worth. Four targets is nothing to sneeze at, and he ran well. He was one of my favorite handcuffs all summer, and he should be rostered in nearly every league.
Steelers vs. 49ers -- A disastrous opener for Pittsburgh, which lost Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth to injuries. Johnson, Allen Robinson, and Calvin Austin were top-three in receiving yards. That's not what managers were hoping for (unless you're the one person who drafted Robinson and Austin). While Johnson's and Freiermuth's injuries are important, it was fascinating to see Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren split touches. That said, a big run gave Harris the boost he needed. This backfield battle will be one of the most interesting the next few weeks. And for San Francisco, I warned this summer about George Kittle's inflated value, as the often-injured veteran largely shined last season while Deebo Samuel was hurt. A healthy Deebo and Brandon Aiyuk remain weekly must-starts. Kittle likely will need to score to be a top-10 TE.
Commanders vs. Cardinals -- For a while, it looked like Arizona would take this one, especially after Antonio Gibson's brutal fumble. Credit Brian Robinson for serving as the workhorse and collecting the game's only receiving score. I didn't buy into Robinson in this one, because he's highly TD-dependent. But he sharply out-touched and outplayed Gibson. We'll see next week if this was a sign of things to come. And for Arizona, a predictably disastrous season begins. Their next four games are against the Giants, Cowboys, 49ers, and Bengals. I can't rationalize starting any Cardinals in any of those contests.
Ravens vs. Texans -- J.K. Dobbins' torn Achilles isn't fair. But at only 24 years old, and despite a career mark of nearly 6.0 yards per carry, his time as a team's #1 RB might be over. He averaged 19.0 touches per game in three years at Ohio State, spanning 42 contests. There's a lot of tread on his tires, and now two season-ending injuries. Simply brutal. Fantasy-wise, Justice Hill has more pull than Gus Edwards in the passing game, making Edwards more TD-dependent -- albeit, probably a higher-volume one. Take Edwards for a safe floor, and take Hill if you like living more dangerously. And for Houston, nearly half of C.J. Stroud's passes went to Nico Collins or Robert Woods. Although John Metchie will return at some point, for now, Collins has earned #1 WR honors, while the 31-year-old Woods probably will struggle to replicate his Week 1 numbers.
Bears vs. Packers -- Such an odd offensive performance for a Chicago team that entered the season with (deservedly) lofty ambitions. So much that can be discussed, but I found Roschon Johnson's usage to be most notable. On a team with three engaged running backs and one of the NFL's most mobile quarterbacks, it's hard to envision any RB breaking through early on. But as you know, I've been pushing rookie Roschon Johnson since July. His usage suggests he's #2 on the depth chart, and within earshot of de facto #1 Khalil Herbert. For Green Bay, as subscribers know, the insanely undervalued Jordan Love was my biggest QB bargain this summer, and Aaron Jones (overall 37 ADP) was #10 on my draft board. Jones's hamstring injury is a huge story, as it would set up A.J. Dillon (and perhaps Patrick Taylor) for streamability in Week 2. And if Jones misses that game, Love certainly would take at least a small hit.
Broncos vs. Raiders -- Last year in Week 1, Russell Wilson's Denver debut resulted in disaster. This year was worse. Despite missing several offensive weapons, it's inconceivable that Wilson could muster only 177 passing yards on 34 throws, and merely one yard on the ground. Looking ahead, keep an eye on the aftermath of Week 10. If the Broncos have only four wins or less at that point, and if Wilson doesn't look close to the Wilson of old, then I believe he'll be benched. Denver's opponents before then are the Commanders, @Dolphins, @Bears, Jets, @Chiefs, Packers, Chiefs, and @Bills. So yeah, Week 1 was supposed to be his easiest matchup. Ironically (or maybe it's not ironic at all), Jarrett Stidham could be this team's best QB, and head coach Sean Payton probably is wondering the same thing. As for Vegas, I whiffed terribly on Jakobi Meyers, who blew up in his Raiders debut. However, Josh Jacobs ran as poorly as expected. Zooming in on that backfield, make sure you roster Zamir White if he's available. Based on historical data, I still believe he's a massive regression/injury candidate.
Patriots vs. Eagles -- This one looked like an impending blowout until Mac Jones and his receivers regained their footing. With Kendrick Bourne leading all Patriots WRs, and with rookie Demario Douglas not far behind, this remains a fantasy corps to avoid. But the backfield is fascinating, as Zeke Elliott outplayed Rhamondre Stevenson on the ground. And yes, Zeke lost a fumble. But his volume -- including through the air -- is a good sign for managers who took the plunge. And for Philly, as with most teams, there's so much to discuss. But the biggest shocker was the team declaring Rashaad Penny inactive, and then starting Kenneth Gainwell. I pushed Gainwell this summer as a vastly undervalued RB, and I drafted him (and D'Andre Swift) in my league. Gainwell's 18 touches weren't a fluke, and they'll almost certainly factor into future usage.
Chargers vs. Dolphins -- What a game. My prediction that Justin Herbert will eclipse 6,000 passing yards got off to a rocky start. And for fantasy purposes, Joshua Kelley was a huge surprise. Although he earned only one target, his workload suggests the Chargers might be committed to a 1A and 1B RB corps for the first time since Melvin Gordon and a much younger Ekeler roamed this backfield. And for Miami, I now wish I'd pushed Tua more. He was my overall 88th-ranked player, which was identical to his overall 88 ADP. When healthy, he's somewhere between great and incredible. Here's hoping he stays healthy.
Seahawks vs. Rams -- Injuries to Tyler Lockett and two offensive linemen doomed the Seahawks against an undermanned Rams offense that leaned on three largely unproven youngsters. Remember that offensive-line data I shared a week or two ago? The Seahawks' o-line is ranked among the worst -- and just as importantly, is reportedly worse than last year's. Geno Smith losing both starting tackles certainly didn't help. Stay tuned on the health of this line in the coming days, because it might have a meaningful impact on Geno and this entire offense when the travel to Detroit to face an even tougher defense. As for L.A., congratulations to those who believed in Puka Nacua. In fairness, I ranked him more than 100 spots ahead of his ADP, and Tutu Atwell more than 300 spots above his. But when the chips were down, I advised readers to fade Nacua. Instead, he was one of the opening weekend's biggest breakout stars.
Giants vs. Cowboys -- I thought the Bills' Week 1 drubbing of the Rams was insane. But the Cowboys putting an even bigger hurt on the Giants seemed inconceivable. New York never recovered after Dallas blocked a field-goal attempt on the opening drive, converting it into a defensive touchdown. It's too soon to know what went wrong (I'm writing this early in the fourth quarter). But notably, Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller led the way. I was down on both this summer based on massive health/regression concerns. If the Giants turn things around in Week 2, surely both will be reasons why. However, this was one of the worst Week 1 performances imaginable for a squad with strong playoff aspirations. As for Dallas, it's impossible to assess what their skill players achieved, because the game was essentially over before most of them could do much damage. Still, it's important to point out that Rico Dowdle operated firmly ahead of rookie Deuce Vaughn as the #2 RB. Dowdle might eventually earn stand-alone value in a plus offense with a starting RB (Tony Pollard) who's not expected to be a workhorse. So make sure Dowdle is rostered in your league.