A couple years ago, I won my league after struggling early in the season. My research showed that the position with the biggest booms is WR. So through trades I secured the league's best WR corps, primarily at the expense of my RBs. The WRs came through with some massive outputs -- enough to compensate for drops at RB. There's no way I could have won the title if I'd hadn't shifted strategies.
The research isn't as cut-and-dry as just described, but it's close. I want to take a few minutes to walk through it in more detail.
I've charted the frequency of every 20+, 30+, and 40+ point performance by position since 2002. The 20+ point threshold is a key marker, usually signifying elite or near-elite QB/RB/WR outputs. For TEs and DSTs, it's uber-elite. For kickers, it's almost unheard of.
24% of 20+ point performers these past 21 seasons have been quarterbacks, compared to 27% running backs and 36% wide receivers. Tight ends (7%), kickers (1%), and DSTs (5%) round out the list. Going deeper, in any given contest, there's a 50% chance that a QB will hit 20+, compared to a 57% chance of an RB hitting that mark and a 74% chance that a WR will net 20+. The odds of a TE (14%), kicker (1%), or DST (11%) are moderately-to-massively lower.
What does this mean? Here's one example. Suppose your league starts one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one flex, and (for traditionalists) a kicker and DST. All else being equal, if you want a pretty big payoff at flex, your odds are better with a WR than with an RB (or TE, of course). Naturally, if your flex has a team's #3 WR facing a tough secondary, you should probably look elsewhere. But playing the probabilities, if you're torn between comparable talents at different positions, it's better to roll with the WR.
30+ point scorers are on an entirely different level. They're obviously rarer, and as a result, landing one could realistically impact whether you win or lose that week. Based on positional percentages these past 21 years, QBs (21%), TEs (5%), kickers (0%), and DSTs (2%) have a smaller share of the pie, while RBs (33%) and WRs (39%) have a larger share. In other words, while RBs+WRs account for 63% of all 20+ point scorers, they account for 72% of all 30+ point scorers. And in each game, there's an 8% chance of a QB cracking 30 points, compared to 12% for RBs and 15% for WRs. TEs (2%), kickers (0%), and DSTs (1%) have almost no shot.
This brings us to 40+ point scorers. Two years ago, I deliberately traded for WRs with Player-of-the-Week potential. I was looking for guys who could carry my team with one huge performance.
Why? Because since 2002, only 10% of 40+ point scorers have been QBs, compared to 3% for TEs, 0% for kickers, and 1% for DSTs. Meanwhile, RBs (41%) and WRs (46%) have crushed it. And on a per-game basis, the gap also continues to widen. In any given contest, QBs have a 0.5% chance of reaching 40+, compared to 0.2% for TEs, 0.0% for kickers, and 0.1% for DSTs.
But . . . there's a 2.0% chance of an RB scoring 40+, and a 2.2% chance of a WR reaching 40+. And while this spans all players, we know inherently that starters have a higher probability of reaching that mark than bench players. So if we're starting a QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, a flex, and a DST, the best shot we have of landing a 40+ point scorer is by rolling with three starting WRs -- preferably (of course) high-volume #1's.
It's worth pointing out that because NFL offenses have changed a lot these past two decades, the data is also evolving. For example, in the decade from 2002 through 2011, only four QBs cracked 40+ points, compared to 66 RBs and 58 WRs. But the next 10 years have witnessed greater QB dominance and diminished RB dominance. Specifically, from 2012 through 2021, 40+ points were achieved by 19 QBs, 37 RBs, and (once again) 58 WRs.
It's a fascinating trend shift that doesn't show up in the whole rundown, but which should be understood in today's NFL, where high-powered QBs are more likely to take flight, and where split backfields cap a lot more RB ceilings.
In the coming years, we're going to see if these recent trends shift or continue. In the meantime, elite WRs are the constant. If your team needs a boom-bust approach, they are the best play for earth-shaking weekly returns.
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