Three things today as we draw closer to Week 1, and as many of us gear up for our first and/or final draft of the summer.
First, some of you have expressed frustration about getting sniped in drafts -- when someone takes your top target right before your pick. Yeah, it's agonizing. Has happened to most of us, probably many times (and sometimes many times in the same draft).
I'm fascinated by the psychology of drafting, including how to temper my own expectations and frustrations so that I can remain focused for all 16 rounds. So for what it's worth, here are some things to keep in mind:
(1) When someone snipes you, they're also sniping the next few managers who pick after you. Essentially, you're not the only one who's moderately-to-severely anguished that an opponent snagged Jalen Hurts in the middle of the third round. Embrace the collective "ugh." Your misery has plenty of company.
(2) Every time you make a selection, there's a decent chance you're sniping one or more opponents with one of the next few picks. Think about that: you have the power to crush others' spirits. What a treat.
(3) Don't fall in love with players you don't yet have. This is why I assemble dozens of preferred targets before a draft. If I miss out on James Cook, there's always Drake London. If I then miss out on London, there's always Kyle Pitts. A "this-player-or-bust" mindset in each round -- even when it's only one pick before your turn -- can lead to disappointment.
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If you have WRs on your bench, I suggest asking yourself two questions:
(1) How much better are those WRs compared to the five-or-so "best" WRs on waivers?
(2) Barring an injury to a starter, and with the exception of bye weeks, do you plan to start each of those WRs multiple times?
As discussed a few days ago, aside from uber-deep leagues where the best waiver options are Quez Watkins and Kendrick Bourne, I view fantasy benches as a gold mine. Most players who belong on benches are those that will produce gold. Rashid Shaheed is not a gold producer. Neither is K.J. Osborn or Donovan Peoples-Jones or Mecole Hardman.
Replacement-level talent with little-to-no chance at rising above replacement-level isn't appealing. Instead, focus on gold, even if their ADPs don't look appealing. Because every year, second-, third-, and occasionally even fourth-string RBs become fantasy heroes.
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And . . . as discussed a few days ago, I generally draft about five WRs, where two ride my bench. Both WRs need to have strong top-40 upside. Otherwise I drop them for a backup RB and roll the dice for a week.
An example of the two WRs I want on my bench are teammates Kadarius Toney (WR46 / overall 114 ADP) and Skyy Moore (WR48 / overall 124 ADP). If you're drafting at the 12-13 turn in a 12-team league, you should be able to get both at picks 108 and 109. Or if you're picking 9th in the first round, take Toney at 105 and Moore at 112.
Last season, Patrick Mahomes' top WR target was JuJu Smith-Schuster, who compiled a respectable 78-933-3 receiving line. He was the overall WR27. Not bad at all. This year, he and Mecole Hardman are gone. Travis Kelce will turn 34 in October, and his snap-count percentage has dropped each season since 2018. The boom-bust (and highly inefficient) Marquez Valdes-Scantling likely will play a reduced role.
There's an opening for Toney and/or Moore to jump into the top 40, with one likely to finish in the top 30. I don't trust Rashee Rice or Richie James or anyone else. If you want to stash two weekly-starter-caliber WRs on your bench beginning in the ninth round, I can't think of a better teammate pairing than Toney and Moore, because you'll probably walk away with at least one giant bargain.
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