When a player with an overall ADP of 147 gets hurt, it's actually pretty big news -- or at least, it can be. Depends on the severity and his position. But in general, we need to take notice.
And when that same might miss the entire season, it's big. And when it's a running back on a team with "win-now" Super Bowl aspirations, it's huge. And when the existing backfield has more questions than answers, it's a fantasy earthquake. Or at least, it could be.
I've gone on record repeatedly that Miami is not as good as they appear to be on paper. Their superb young quarterback is one concussion away from (perhaps) calling it quits. Their TE corps took a hit when they let Mike Gesicki go. And their defense has dealt with a lot of bad luck this summer. Add in a brutal first half of the season (possibly the league's toughest), and I'd be surprised if they have a winning record through nine games.
This is important context in light of Jeff Wilson landing on injured reserve, followed by head coach Mike McDaniel stating he "wouldn't be surprised if he made a return this season."
"Wouldn't be surprised?" IR means Wilson will miss at least the first four contests. But McDaniel is suggesting Wilson could realistically remain out for months.
On the same day -- possibly serving as damage control -- Wilson's agent suggested Wilson has a good chance of returning soon after Week 4.
It's a lot of chaos in a backfield that finally enjoyed some stability last season. If Wilson misses a good chunk of the season, it would leave 31-year-old Raheem Mostert. and hobbled rookie Devon Achane to carry the load. Salvon Ahmed is now on top my 300, because why not? He ran well last year and could do just fine behind a top-10 run-blocking line.
This is a certifiable mess, disguised as a setback. If I'm wrong, then fantasy managers much savvier than me could pounce on a bargain in the draft. Or Achane could get healthy quickly and show off the flash that prompted the Fins to select him in the third round. Or Ahmed could earn some spot starts, which would have seemed impossible only a week ago.
Or . . . if the Dolphins are as desperate as I believe they are, Wilson's injury could signal renewed trade talks with Indy for Jonathan Taylor. The addition of Taylor would be a boon for the young star's fantasy value while likely pushing most of his backfield teammates outside the top 60. It would be the JT Show on the ground, with Tua and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle lighting it up through the air. Looking ahead to a road matchup against the Chargers in Week 1, and then another road game versus the Patriots in Week 2, and then a home game against the Broncos before heading to Buffalo . . . Does this team really believe they've done enough to not just compete, but win the AFC East?
Even with the season's opening kickoff less than a week away, it's tough to envision Miami thinking its backfield is in good shape. I've been consistently pessimistic about this corps all summer. The perennially injury-prone Mostert and Wilson have been major fades in my rankings, while Achane has been a tentative bargain -- primarily because I haven't trust Mostert and Wilson.
This team has invested too much to enter the season with this many RB question marks. Again, if Mostert does the near impossible and largely carries this RB corps, with Achane and Ahmed far exceeding expectations, and Wilson possibly getting back on the field in October and looking better than ever, then I'll eat my shirt (proverbially; don't ask for photographic proof). But for the coming days, I'll remain firmly in the "Dolphins will add another RB" camp. And when they do, I believe it will dramatically shake up this backfield while resetting the fantasy values for at least four players.
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