Once a year, I devote a column to fantasy kickers. Some of you don't use kickers. I get it. So if this doesn't apply to you, watch a few old Joe Isuzu commercials for equal-or-greater entertainment value.
I'm continually researching how to find the highest-probability elite / near-elite kickers, particularly those who are ranked outside the top 12 (and generally available in the final round of drafts). Some people try to thread the needle, finding someone who kicks in a good-not-great offense: good enough to drive down field, but not often good enough to find the end zone. And in isolated instances, that absolutely works. But it's hardly predictable -- or at least, it's not as predictable as it might seem.
I've tracked kicker fantasy points since 2003. Specifically, my research centers on kickers in top-5 offenses (based on points scored), top 6-10 offenses, and bottom-5 offenses. For teams that had more than one kicker in a season, their points were added together.
The results are incredible, and also not that surprising. Every single season -- all 20 since 2003 -- the five kickers (or combined kickers for teams that had more than one) on the five highest-scoring teams averaged more points than the five kickers (or combined kickers when applicable) on the five lowest-scoring teams.
Also incredible -- and far more surprising -- is that the gap between these two tiers narrowed slightly/steadily for the first 19 years. Then last season, the gap was only 13 points: the lowest I've recorded. For context, the gap in 2003 was 59 points. Then it oscillated between 23 and 68 thru 2019. In the last three seasons, the gap has been (in chronological order) 21, 34, and then 13.
What accounts for this? I'd welcome your ideas. My thinking is that as NFL scoring has increased, so too has kicker production. Back in 2003, 10 teams scored 300 or fewer points. In 2021 -- the final year of the 16-game season -- only two teams scored 300 or less. More scoring generally equates to more offensive touchdowns and field goals. I say "generally" because of course there are defensive and special-teams scores. But on the whole, a rise in scoring has directly resulted in a rise in kicker usage.
And who are the top-5 kickers this year? Jake Elliott (Eagles), Jake Moody (49ers), Brandon Aubrey (Cowboys), Brett Maher (Rams), and Tyler Bass (Bills). Buffalo's scored the second-most points. San Francisco, the third-most. Dallas is tied at #6. Philly is #7. The Rams' kicker is the outlier. In general, if we're drafting a highly accurate kicker in a fantastic offense, then we have a high probability of striking gold.
This is why every time someone asked me this summer which kicker to target, I'd always say, "Cameron Dicker." Despite his K10 ADP, he had all the makings of an elite fantasy performer. He hit an incredible 21 of 22 field-goal attempts last season. At only 23 years old, he's presumably ascending rather than descending talent-wise. He plays in the high-powered (when healthy) Chargers offense. Honestly, my decision to target Dicker took about five minutes, because the research pointed to him as an undervalued breakout star.
I bring this up knowing that he hasn't broken through. He's the K17 on five-of-six field goal attempts and nine extra points. Moody (K15 ADP), Maher (K21 ADP), and Aubrey (K25 ADP) are the real breakout stars thus far. Aubrey entered the season as a 28-year-old USFL hero with zero NFL experience. Moody was a lamentable oversight, as the Niners used the 99th overall draft pick to land the rookie; they clearly saw something in him, and he's paid huge dividends on the field and in fantasy.
With Moody and Aubrey rostered in my league, I'll continue to roll with my favorite preseason kicker. If the Chargers' offense languishes, that'll be a sign to cut bait. Or if Dicker's accuracy repeatedly falters, that'll be a sign, too. But as long as he's hitting around 87% or better, and as long as the Chargers remain one of the better offensive teams, I'll play the long game and await Dicker's high-probability breakout.