In Week 1 of last year's preseason games, Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder showed off their rushing prowess, Jerome Ford looked like a bellcow-in-waiting, and Danny Gray showed off his high-end speed en route to 99 receiving yards and a score.
Four intriguing rookie with stellar professional debuts. But Ridder remained on the bench for most of the regular season, starting only four games. Howell started only one. Ford and Gray combined for 4.1 fantasy points all year.
This is the challenge when assessing first-year players. Who's for real, and who will be exposed once the games matter? Who will earn starts, and who will remain far down on the depth chart?
Yesterday was a mixed bag for rookie. The Jags' Tank Bigsby looked very comfortable while netting a 13-70=0 rushing line. But will he earn enough reps to be a fantasy streamer alongside Travis Etienne? Devon Achane was terrific before getting hurt. If it's nothing serious, can we somehow rank him ahead of the aging Raheem Mostert and (currently injured) Jeff Wilson?
Meanwhile, Dalton Kincaid capitalized with Dawson Knox on the shelf. Should we elevate Kincaid, or was his production too situational to merit a bump? Trey Palmer and Roschon Johnson also stepped up, as did Tyjae Spears (still one of my favorite bargain handcuffs). Rashee Rice crushed the Cards. But will it be enough to secure meaningful targets in-season? And Jaleen McLaughlin turned in his second consecutive impressive performance. But will it matter while operating behind Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine?
Bigsby, Achane, Kincaid, Johnson, Spears, Rice, and McLaughlin are seven of many rookies on the cusp of fantasy relevance. Some are shoo-ins for Week 1 roles. Others could become monster producers if things break certain ways (e.g. if Derrick Henry gets hurt, Spears could dominate).
Admittedly, I've struggled all summer with where to rank most first-years. Spears has been a near constant. But most other rookies have bounced around my spreadsheet, because even a great (or bad) preseason outing doesn't always merit a value shift. Just look at last year, or the year before, or the year before that. Breakouts and busts happen, and they don't always carry into Week 1.
If there's a rookie you're struggling to rank, give a shout. What are you waiting to see before deciding where to place him?
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