Heard from many of you who drafted this past weekend and enjoyed seeing who you picked. I normally stay pretty neutral unless asked. So if you share something, I might cheer you on, because let's face it: it'd be rude if I said you choked.
But when you ask my opinion, I'll always be honest. There are two ways to slice that candor.
First, your starting lineup, which is pretty subjective at this point. If you drafted Saquon Barkley and Cooper Kupp at the 1-2 turn, I might say, "That's not what I would have done." But it's an entirely reasonable approach. No one can legitimately say those are "bad" picks. Your perspective led you to draft them, and my perspective leads me to wince slightly. But in December, we might look back and agree that your perspective was better.
Then there are benches, and here's where I don't hold back. I *believe* there's an optimal way to fill a bench. Smart people can and should disagree. But my bench strategy has remained the same for years.
So if you ask my views on your seven-player bench, and it includes a top 12-16 QB, a top 10-14 TE, three WRs who will probably finish outside the top 35, and only two RBs, then I'll (hopefully politely) share adjustments I'd make . . . if asked.
The only time I'd want a second QB rostered in a one-QB league is if (a) my starting QB might miss the start of the season, or (b) my starting QB isn't expected to finish in the top 10. In other words, streaming one of two quarterbacks each week can work really well. But if I've got Jalen Hurts, I have no need for a streamer. Hurts will be my weekly starter, period.
Somewhat similarly, the only time I'd want a second TE is if my starting TE might not be healthy enough to start the year. That's it. If I draft Sam LaPorta as my starter, knowing that he's a longshot to finish in the top 8, then I'm accepting his weekly boom-bust potential. And if I decide to bail in Week 5, there will be plenty of similar boom-bust TEs on waivers. Keeping one on my bench is, in general, a waste of a spot.
As for wideouts, I get it. It's tempting to take someone who could be streamable some or even many weeks. There are at least 60 intriguing WRs, and we could push that out even further. Curtis Samuel (WR75 ADP), Marvin Mims (WR77 ADP), and Van Jefferson (WR83) could all be rosterable. I'm betting that Samuel and Jefferson will comfortably outperform expectations. And yet, that doesn't mean I want them on my team. In leagues that start two WRs and one flex, I try to cap my intake to five wideouts. In an ideal world, my two bench WRs are solely bye-week replacements. But they're good enough to fill in if one of my starters gets hurt. Three, four, or five bench WRs? That's overkill.
Because RBs are lottery tickets. We know this instinctively and empirically. Chuba Hubbard was a streamer in Weeks 14-17 last year. Heading into the season, his RB ADP was 61. When Carolina traded CMC, Hubbard should have been rostered in nearly every big-bench league.
Isiah Pacheco had an RB66 ADP. Jerick McKinnon was at RB71. If you drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire and hedged late with Pacheco and McKinnon, then you landed two weekly fantasy starters for a good chunk of the season -- neither of whom was CEH.
Jaylen Warren (RB88 ADP), Samaje Perine (RB90 ADP), and Latavius Murray (RB106 ADP) all proved useful.
But it's not just deep cuts. The RB40-60 range is often chock full of one-week wonders or multi-week contributors . . . and sometimes season-long assets. Heading into Week 1 last year, here were some notable ADPs: Raheem Mostert (46), Tyler Allgeier (47), Brian Robinson (48), Rachaad White (49), Khalil Harbert (50), Jamaal Williams (52), D'Onta Foreman (56), and Jeff Wilson (57).
Most of those players went undrafted.
If my bench is seven players, I want roughly five running backs. Ideally, two are handcuffs for my starters (or if there's no clear handcuff, I'll target the co-backups). The other RBs generally are handcuffs or high-upside complementary backs, where an injury to the starter could propel them to top-20 production.
This approach doesn't always work. Occasionally I pick five RBs who collectively do little-to-nothing. I guess wrong. But usually, at least one pans out, and often two or three. If they'd remained on waivers, my chances of getting them when their value spiked would have been 10% or less. But by rostering them ahead of Week 1, I give myself a reasonable chance at striking gold.
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