Really interested in hearing folks' perspectives on this year's rookie running backs. The "Big Two" are obvious. In dynasty, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are cornerstone additions in rookie drafts. And in redraft leagues, Robinson remains elite, while Gibbs has a more conservative overall 36 ADP, thanks to market concerns about David Montgomery's impact. (For what it's worth, I've got Gibbs as a bargain, believing he'll comfortably outperform Montgomery and net 14+ touches per game.)
But what about the other rookie RBs? Who are you targeting late? Who are you fading? Here are my assessments of the nine RBs selected after Bijan and Gibbs.
Zach Charbonnet (RB37 / overall 110 ADP vs. 38/116 FF4W) -- I'm pretty neutral about Charbonnet. Kenneth Walker is exceptionally talented, and DeeJay Dallas is no slouch. The good news is that Charbonnet has flashed in preseason games. He clearly belongs out there. The problem is that he probably hasn't faced many starting defenders. Head coach Pete Carroll might bring him along slowly. He's more of a glorified handcuff at this point -- someone I'd reach for two rounds early if I drafted Walker, but not someone I'd reach for as a stand-alone RB.
Kendre Miller (55/190 ADP vs. 50/156 FF4W) -- How desperate are you to field a potential 8+ touch RB in Weeks 1-3? That's Miller in a nutshell, at least as he kicks off his professional career. I think the Saints reached for him in the third round. Time will tell. He's also run anemically this summer (14 carries for 28 yards). However, he's caught all four of his targets. He's running behind two 28-year-olds with mileage. I expect Miller to do enough while Alvin Kamara's suspended to keep him semi-relevant, before fading as we wait and see if Kamara or Jamaal Williams breaks down.
Tyjae Spears (61/224 ADP vs. 53/165 FF4W) -- Subscribers know my views on Spears. He's been somewhere between moderately and painfully undervalued all summer. If you believe Derrick Henry will crack 300+ touches while not missing a game, you're more bullish than me. I still believe Henry could be on the move before the trade deadline, or else Henry would be a strong candidate to get shut down in December if the Titans are essentially out of postseason contention. Either way, Spears remains my favorite rookie handcuff.
Devon Achane (40/129 ADP vs. 43/134 FF4W) -- There's not enough space to adequately convey my thoughts on Achane. My 32-Teams-in-32-Days Miami rundown captures much of it. Achane has been my favored Dolphin fantasy RB all summer. But buzz surrounding Jonathan Taylor, as well as Achane's shoulder injury, are concerning. I'm not ready to drop him down my board. That said, he's hanging on by a thread, and is no longer "undervalued." If you have a deep bench, he's worth a flyer, largely because I have no faith in the durability of Raheem Mostert.
Tank Bigsby (49/168 ADP vs. 44/138 FF4W) -- Bigsby fumbled last night. He fumbled four times in 2021. It's something to monitor, especially as he fends of D'Ernest Johnson while trying to poach touches from Travis Etienne. But I remain mostly unfazed. The rookie caught 51 passes in his final two collegiate campaigns and is a good bet to snag 100+ touches in a plus offense. I expect him to exceed expectations.
Roschon Johnson (53/187 ADP vs. 48/149 FF4W) -- I've hyped Johnson recently, and there's not much more to be said. I'd caution not to fall in love with him. He's a solid prospect in a crowded backfield, and with a run-heavy quarterback. Touchdown opportunities might not come often. Khalil Herbert appears to be firmly atop the RB depth chart. But with an ADP that borders on "undraftable," I believe he's definitely draftable in 12-team leagues.
Israel Abanikanda (83/326 ADP vs. 74/237 FF4W) -- The Jets' backfield let them down last season after Breece Hall was knocked out for the year. So they drafted Abankikanda for needed depth. But after acquiring Dalvin Cook, the rookie's 2023 prospects look dim at best. While his ranking is too low, it doesn't make him draftable. A lot has to break his way to make him fantasy-relevant.
Chase Brown (65/250 ADP vs. 86/259 FF4W) -- There was a time when I was hyping Brown well ahead of his ADP. Now I've headed in the other direction. Chris Evans has comfortably outplayed him during the preseason. In huge leagues where #3 RBs are frequently stashed, Brown is worth a look. But barring a long absence from Mixon, I can't envision Brown cracking the top 60.
Eric Gray (No ADP vs. 57/186 FF4W) -- Possibly another miss. I was pushing Gray earlier this summer, particularly when Saquon Barkley's contract situation was in limbo. Now he's fighting for a #3 role, unless I'm misreading his largely forgettable preseason, in which he's collected only 28 yards on 15 carries (plus some nice receiving yardage). But I'm stubbornly keeping him in my "draftable" column, because I strongly believe Saquon won't play more than 14 games. At some point, Gray should get another look.
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